3 NBA Sunday Best Bets Featuring Thunder-Suns, Pacers-Spurs
Since it's the offseason for the NFL, the NBA becomes the main sports betting attraction on Sundays until March Madness begins. I know a lot of OutKick readers aren't NBA fans. However, aside from the PGA Tour, there's nothing else to gamble on Sunday. Plus, I need to pull myself out of the NBA betting hole I've dug this season.
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It's been an up-and-down week. But, I went 3-1 in the NBA on Friday and a couple of recent losses were more "bad beats" than bad reads. With that in mind, I hope to finish the week strong with bets in the Charlotte Hornets vs. Toronto Raptors, Indiana Pacers vs. San Antonio Spurs, and Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Phoenix Suns games.
NBA Sunday Best Bets
- The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.
Charlotte Hornets at Toronto Raptors (-7), 6 p.m. ET
Raptors All-Star wing Scottie Barnes fractured his hand in the middle of Toronto's 120-105 home loss to the Golden State Warriors Friday. However, I'm not a huge fan of Barnes' game and sportsbooks opened the Raptors as -8 favorites knowing he would miss Sunday's game. I.e. the line movement is after Barnes' injury news was baked into the spread.
Also, Toronto has been playing better basketball post-All-Star break. The Raptors won their 1st three games following the All-Star game and lost the last two to the Dallas Mavericks (136-125) and Warriors. Those final scores are misleading. They hung tough in those games but Dallas and Golden State won the 3rd quarters by 28 combined points.
Charlotte Hornets SF Miles Bridges sizes up Toronto Raptors wing R.J. Barrett at the Spectrum Center. (Sam Sharpe-USA TODAY Sports)
Toronto has been getting out in transition and scoring easy buckets, which can be sustained without Barnes on the floor. The Raptors are averaging 29.0 fastbreak points per game (PPG) since the All-Star break. The next closest team is the Washington Wizards at 22.4 fastbreak PPG. Lastly, the Hornets have lost in four consecutive visits to Toronto by an average of 12.3 PPG.
Bet 1.1u on Toronto -7 (-110) at Caesars. The Raptors are bet-able up to -8.
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Indiana Pacers at San Antonio Spurs (+6.5), 7 p.m. ET
I just like how San Antonio has been playing lately. The Spurs have covered four of their first five games out of the All-Star break. This includes San Antonio's 132-118 home win vs. the Thunder on Thursday. The Pacers crushed the Spurs 152-111 Nov. 6th in Indy. But, San Antonio was on the 2nd end of a back-to-back (B2B) and missing starting SG Devin Vassell.
More importantly, Victor Wembanyama and I expect the Spurs will pile up some wins to end the regular season. Since New Year's Day, Wemby is averaging 22.7 PPG, grabbing 10.1 rebounds, and blocking 3.6 shots. Also, San Antonio's offense has improved after adding PG Tre Jones to the starting 5.
San Antonio Spurs C Victor Wembanyama jams on Indiana Pacers PF Isaiah Jackson at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. (Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports)
According to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), the Spurs have a +10.3 non-garbage time net rating when Wemby, Jones, and Vassell are on the floor together. That's in the 94th percentile of all 5-man lineups in the NBA.
Finally, Indiana's defense is atrocious, especially on the road. The Pacers are 25th in defensive rating on the season and, in road games, they rank 28th. Essentially, Indy -6.5 is too big of a number on the road for a defense that cannot get any spots.
Bet the Spurs +6.5 (-108) at FanDuel. San Antonio is playable down to +5.5.
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Oklahoma City Thunder (-6) at Phoenix Suns, 9:30 p.m. ET
I made the Thunder -3 favorites for this game before Suns All-Star Devin Booker and big Jusuf Nurkic exited Phoenix's 118-109 loss to the Houston Rockets on Saturday with injuries. This is the 2nd of a B2B for the Suns, so I don't expect either to play Sunday. If Booker and Nurkic both miss Sunday's game, I'd be willing to bet OKC up to -7.
Oklahoma City Thunder All-Star PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander drives to the basket on Phoenix Suns SF Kevin Durant at Footprint Center in Arizona. (Zachary BonDurant-USA TODAY Sports)
The Thunder beat the Suns 111-99 without Booker in Phoenix on Nov. 12. Per CTG, Booker has an +8.0 on/off non-garbage time net rating and Nurkic is +14.2, which ranks in the 98th percentile among NBA bigs. Oklahoma City's lack of size is its biggest weakness. It'll be tougher for Phoenix to work that edge without Nurkic in the lineup.
Ultimately, Suns All-Star Kevin Durant cannot do it himself. Phoenix guard Bradley Beal has been a bit of a dud this season and Booker is the MVP of the Suns. The Thunder will be up for this game after losing their last time out and since they are in the hunt for the 1-seed out West.
Bet 1.1u on the Thunder -6 (-110) at FanDuel. Give me Oklahoma City up to -7.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my NBA 2023-24 betting record via X all season.