Earning Back Your Trust In The NBA With 2 Best Bets For Sunday
I lied, my bad. I guaranteed a winning night betting on the NBA Friday and failed to deliver. In my defense, I got "closing line value" (loser talk for a line moving your way after betting it) for two of my best bets. Plus, the New York Knicks' best rebounder (forward Josh Hart) was ejected for a bogus Flagrant 2 foul against the Chicago Bulls.
That's pretty much how my entire NBA 2023-24 has gone from a betting perspective. It's a gross mixture of bad luck, players letting me down (I'm kind of joking), and coin-flip losses. On one hand, I should just give up on the NBA this season. On the other, the playoffs are around the corner and there will be nothing else to bet.
NBA Sunday Betting Card
The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.
Miami Heat (+3.5) at Indiana Pacers, 5 p.m. ET
This is Miami combo guard Tyler Herro's second game back after a two-month-long injury hiatus. Herro scored 17 points on 7-of-14 shooting Thursday in the Heat's 119-104 win at the Houston Rockets. Also, Miami was playing well before Herro's return. Over the last two weeks, the Heat are 5th in net rating and 2nd in spread differential, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Now that Herro is back, Miami has a legitimate chance to make noise in the NBA playoffs. Speaking of which, this is a de facto playoff game. The Heat are the 7th and final play-in seed, a half-game behind the Pacers for the 6-seed. Indy has one of the worst defenses in the NBA. Miami is 6-1 with a +14.7 adjusted net rating vs. bottom-10 defenses since March 1st, per CTG.
Miami Heat wing Jimmy Butler calls a play vs. the Indiana Pacers at Kaseya Center in Florida. (Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports)
The Heat beat the Pacers 142-132 in their 1st meeting this season November 30th. Then Indiana got revenge with a 144-129 win two days later. Both games were in Miami. But, I give the Heat an edge Sunday even though this game is in Indiana. Miami's defense can get stops and ranks 5th in defensive rating while, again, Indy's defense sucks.
Finally, we are getting a free-roll with the Heat's plus-money odds. Pacers All-Star PG Tyrese Haliburton is "questionable" and, if he misses, Indiana is in trouble. Haliburton leads the Pacers with a +6.5 on/off net rating, according to CTG.
Bet 1.1u on Miami +3.5 (-110) at Caesars.
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Philadelphia 76ers at San Antonio Spurs (+4.5), 7 p.m. ET
The Sixers are giving reigning NBA MVP C Joel Embiid an off-day for injury management. Embiid just returned earlier this week after being out with an injury since February 1st. Additionally, Philadelphia All-Star PG Tyrese Maxey and wing Tobias Harris are "questionable" for Sunday.
Regardless, without Embiid, the 76ers don't have anyone to defend Spurs rookie big Victor Wembanyama. Post-All-Star break, Wemby is averaging 22.7 points, 11.9 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 4.3 blocks per game. Victor is flirting with quadruple-doubles and has balled out against good teams recently, such as the Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, and New York Knicks.
San Antonio Spurs C Victor Wembanyama posts up Golden State Warriors SF Andrew Wiggins at Frost Bank Center. (Daniel Dunn-USA TODAY Sports)
Philly beat San Antonio 133-123 at home with Embiid playing in their 1st meeting of the season, Jan. 22nd. But, the Sixers failed to cover as -13.5 favorites and Wembanyama scored a team-high 33 points on 10-of-19 shooting. Wemby played only 28:21 because he got into foul trouble, caused by Embiid's craftiness.
The Spurs have covered eight of their last 10 games, including six straight. San Antonio has recent covers vs. the Nuggets and Warriors with upset victories over the Phoenix Suns, Knicks, and New Orleans Pelicans. It makes sense that the Spurs are improving as the season winds down because Wemby is turning into one of the best players in the NBA already.
Bet 1.12u on the Spurs +4.5 (-112) at DraftKings. San Antonio is playable down to +2.5 if Maxey or Harris are out.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my NBA 2023-24 betting record via X all season.