Three NBA Playoffs 2024 Tuesday Best Bets Include Knicks Will Eliminate 76ers

I notched another winning night in the 2024 NBA Playoffs Monday and continue to dig out of the hole I put myself in during the regular season. Boston's defense shut down Miami again in Game 4 and the Celtics crushed the Heat 102-88, so my OVER 203.5 lost. After playing with their food for the 1st three quarters, the Oklahoma City Thunder completed a sweep of the New Orleans Pelicans. 

Then the Denver Nuggets eked past the Los Angeles Lakers in a 108-106 series-clinching win, cashing my UNDER 217. Entering Tuesday, my betting record for the 2024 NBA Playoffs is 25-18 and my bankroll is +9.58 units (u). I'll be taking an off-night betting on the Association Wednesday since only two playoff games are scheduled. Before I do, I'm predicting a 3-0 in the NBA Tuesday. 

NBA Playoffs 2024 Betting Card: April 30th 

The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.

Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks (-4.5), 7 p.m. ET

Before I discuss this game, let me be clear about my Knicks bias. I'm a Knicks fan and I hate 76ers C Joel Embiid (his NBA self, not his real-life self). That said, Madison Square Garden is going to be insane Tuesday and I don't see the Sixers winning in that type of environment. Too much of Embiid's effectiveness is predicated upon him getting to the foul line. This is why he struggles in the playoffs. 

Embiid gets fatigued in the postseason every year and wilts late in games. That fatigue causes Joel to turn the ball over and settle for too many contested jumpers instead of attacking the paint against smaller defenders. This happened in Game 4 when he scored a team-high 27 points (12-for-14 on free throws). However, only one of those points came in the 4th quarter and Joel shot 0-for-5 from the field in that frame. 

New York Knicks PG Jalen Brunson shoots a leaner over Philadelphia 76ers C Joel Embiid during Game 4 of Round 1 in the 2024 NBA Playoffs at Wells Fargo Center in Pennsylvania. (David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images)

Also, New York has the best player in this series: Knicks All-Star PG Jalen Brunson, who lit up the 76ers in Game 4. Brunson had game-highs in points (47) and assists (10) Sunday. Philadelphia doesn't have anyone that can guard Jalen. He can get, and make, any shot he wants. Brunson's "float game" is elite and he can "foul-bait" as well as Embiid. Jalen shot 40.1% from behind the arc during the regular season. 

Lastly, the Knicks are crushing the Sixers on the glass. NYK is grabbing 7.5 more rebounds and scoring 9.5 more second-chance points per game (PPG) in this series. Knicks SF Josh Hart is leading this series with 12.8 rebounds per game and his teammate, forward OG Anunoby, grabbed 14 boards in Game 4. No one in Philly is averaging 10+ rebounds. Not even Embiid. 

BET 1.62u on the Knicks -4.5 (-108) to win 1.5u at FanDuel. Give me New York up to -5. 

• This was going to be a 2u bet when the Knicks opened as -4 favorites. However, I couldn't publish this article while that number was available. So, I'm down-sizing the bet

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Orlando Magic (+5) at Cleveland Cavaliers, 8 p.m. ET

The bottom line is I don't trust a team led by Cavaliers All-Star SG Donovan Mitchell.  His usage rate is at least 10.6% higher than the next closest Cleveland starter and 26 more shots than any other teammate. The Cavs are relying heavily on Mitchell being a superstar and he isn't. And in general, I'm not a fan of Mitchell's game. Donovan doesn't do much off-ball and he is a terrible defender. 

Mitchell wants to be the alpha on a championship team, but he's just not "that guy". Everyone remembers his incredible playoff performance vs. the Denver Nuggets while playing for the Utah Jazz in the 2020 NBA Bubble. Yet, they forget that Utah lost that series and Mitchell hasn't made it past the 2nd round in his six career playoff trips. There is no proof he can be the best player on a contender. 

Cleveland Cavaliers SG Donovan Mitchell drives past Orlando Magic SF Franz Wagner in Game 3 in the 1st round for the 2024 NBA playoffs at Kia Center in Florida. (Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports)

Plus, Magic wing Franz Wagner has been the best player in this series. Mitchell is scoring 21.0 PPG on 42.5% shooting and has a -10 net rating in this series. Wagner is scoring 21.5 PPG on 50.8% shooting with a +25 net rating. Franz is helped by Cleveland using its best defender, PF Evan Mobley, to guard Orlando PF Paolo Banchero. That leaves Wagner an easy matchup against Cavaliers SG Max Strus. 

Finally, I have a hunch this game will be tight and the Magic will cover. Games 1-4 have all been double-digit blowouts. But, Orlando is leading this series in all "four factors" and out-scoring Cleveland 100.5-91.3 PPG on average. The Magic were 21-14 in "clutch" games during the regular season (games with a 5-point margin with five minutes left). The Cavaliers were 20-22 with a -5.3 net rating. 

BET 1.05u on the Magic +5 (-105) at Caesars. Orlando is playable down to +4. 

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Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks (+4.5), 9:30 p.m. ET

I should pass on this game, but I want to gamble here. Milwaukee All-Stars Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard are officially "doubtful" for Game 5 and neither will play. However, as I wrote in an unsuccessful Pacers-Bucks bet for Game 4, Milwaukee's Doc Rivers gets more out of his teams without their best players. Furthermore, Indy's defense is atrocious and the Bucks can get enough scoring from their healthy players. 

Milwaukee SF Khris Middleton is balling in this series. Middleton is putting up 26.3 PPG on 50.6% shooting with 8.8 rebounds and 5.0 assists. Bucks C Brook Lopez is chipping in 18.5 PPG on 69.8% effective field goal shooting. Bucks PF Bobby Portis is averaging a double-double (12.5 PPG and 10.8 rebounds) but shooting only 44.0% from the field. At home this season, Portis had a 61.3% true shooting rate (.536/.463/.854). 

Milwaukee Bucks SF Khris Middleton gathers for a shot over Pacers SF Aaron Nesmith in Game 3 of Round 1 in the 2024 NBA Playoffs at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indiana. (Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports)

Additionally, this is a "better spot" for Milwaukee and everyone will bet Indiana Tuesday since the Bucks are missing Dame and Giannis. The Pacers are 7-8 against the spread (ATS) as road favorites with a 5.2 spread differential in the regular season and playoffs. As home underdogs, Milwaukee is 4-1 straight up and ATS with a +7.5 spread differential. 

Again, I'm gambling but it's the playoffs and I'm on a heater. 

BET 1.05u on the Bucks +4.5 (-105) at DraftKings. I'd bet Milwaukee down to +4. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my NBA 2023-24 betting record via X all season.