NBA Playoffs 2024 Saturday Best Bets For All Four Games Including Nuggets-Lakers

I failed to deliver three winners in the 2024 NBA Playoffs Friday as I guaranteed. For that, I'm sorry. Nevertheless, if you followed my lead, you made money since I went 2-1 and my best bet, Minnesota Timberwolves +5.5 at the Phoenix Suns, cashed. The UNDER 213 in the Clippers-Mavericks Game 3 was a rocking chair cover. Three of the four quarters trended Under the total and Dallas smacked LAC 101-90. 

My one loss Friday, the Indiana Pacers -6 vs. the Milwaukee Bucks, was annoying because Indiana led by 12 points at halftime and just blew the cover. It's all good. I feel like I'm "seeing it well" and I like Saturday's NBA card more than Friday's. That said, let's break these games down and figure out how to make money on the Association Saturday. 

NBA Playoffs 2024 Betting Card: April 27th 

The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.

UNDER 202 in Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic, 1 p.m. ET

I had a slow start to my Saturday morning in Long Beach, California and this game tips off early. With that in mind, I gave out this pick on X/Twitter (@Geoffery_Clark) at 10:30 a.m. ET-ish. The Over 202 cashed in Cavaliers-Magic Game 3 because Orlando crushed Cleveland 121-83. Since the Cavs got the brakes beaten off of them Thursday, I'm betting they come out with a better defensive effort for Game 4. 

According to the few websites I look at with betting splits, there is a ton of Over-money in the market for this game. Yet, there were fewer than 200 combined points in the 1st two games of this series. Both teams are limited offensively but both D up. Orlando ranked 22nd in offensive rating and last in 3-pointers made per game during the regular season.

Cleveland Cavaliers All-Star Donovan Mitchell shoots over Orlando Magic All-Star Paolo Banchero in the 2nd half of Game 3 of the 1st round of the 2024 NBA playoffs at Kia Center in Florida. (Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports)

This is an Under-friendly spot for both teams. The Cavaliers are 10-12 Over/Under (O/U) as road underdogs with a -2.0 O/U margin and the Magic are 11-15 O/U as home favorites with a -3.1 O/U margin. Finally, Cleveland was 22nd in pace during the regular season and Orlando was 25th. 

Bet 1.1u on UNDER 202 in Cavaliers-Magic (-110) at FanDuel. The UNDER is playable down to 201. 

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Oklahoma City Thunder at New Orleans Pelicans (+105), 3:30 p.m. ET

I’m 1-1 in this series while betting on New Orleans in the 1st two games. The Pelicans covered as +8.5 road underdogs in Oklahoma City in a 94-92 Game 1 loss. Then the Thunder crushed NOLA 124-92 in Game 2. I’ll take another shot with the Pelicans Saturday now that they are home. New Orleans is much bigger than OKC and the Pelicans will shoot better in their home gym. 

Furthermore, I'm not a believer in this Thunder team. Don't get me wrong, I love Oklahoma City's roster and future. But, it usually takes a few losses before young teams get over the hump in the playoffs. Granted, the Pelicans are young too, so they might not be the time to knock off the Thunder. Nonetheless, I like NOLA's chances of making this a 6-game series.

New Orleans Pelicans SG CJ McCollum attacks the paint vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 2 of the 1st round of the 2024 NBA playoffs at Paycom Center. (Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports)

Pelicans SG C.J. McCollum and SF Brandon Ingram have been awful and I'm expecting them to turn it around at some point. New Orleans' offensive rating is 101.0 in this series. McCollum has a 93 offensive rating and Ingram is at 98. C.J. shot a career-best 42.9% from behind the arc this season on 8.4 attempts per game. BI is NOLA's 2nd-leading scorer this season at 20.8 points per game. 

Officiating is massive in the playoffs and the Pelicans are better at manipulating the referees. Oklahoma City is 13th in offensive FT/FGA rate and 23rd defensively. New Orleans is 10th offensively and 11th in defensive FT/FGA rate. I'm banking on NOLA's size and improved 3-point shooting at home cashing this bet for me. But, I wouldn't hate the Pelicans getting a little home-cooking from the refs either. 

Bet 1u on New Orleans's moneyline (+105) at Caesars. Give me the Pelicans up to -2. 

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Boston Celtics at Miami Heat (+9.5), 6 p.m. ET

Since the 2020 NBA Bubble in Orlando, I've made more money on the Heat than any other professional sports team. Miami's Erik Spoelstra is the best head coach in the NBA. Heat big, and 2023-24 NBA Defensive Player of the Year award finalist, Bam Adebayo is my favorite non-Knicks player. Miami combo guard Tyler Herro is criminally underrated. 

I gave out Miami +14.5 via X/Twitter when the Heat upset the Celtics 111-101 Wednesday in Boston. Herro scored a team-high 24 points and dished a game-high 14 assists. Bam added 21 points and grabbed 10 rebounds. Miami hit 23 threes in Game 2 and it's hard to lose when you hit that many 3-pointers. Is that sustainable? Probably not. 

However, the Heat have the 2nd-best wide-open 3-point attempt rate in the 2024 NBA Playoffs. If the Celtics don't close out on threes, Miami will torch them (pun intended). It isn't just one guy Boston's defense needs to worry about. The Heat's entire rotation, except for Adebayo, can knock down open 3-pointers. 

Celtics All-Stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are doing their part in this series. It's their supporting cast that's letting them down. Boston PG Jrue Holiday is scoring just 7.5 PPG on 30.0% shooting and big Kristaps Porzingis is averaging 12.0 PPG on 36.4% shooting. But, Holiday and KP shoot far worse on the road, so we'll see a better team effort from Miami in Game 3. 

Bet 1.1u on the Heat +9.5 (-110) at FanDuel. Miami is bet-able down to +8. 

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OVER 218 in Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers, 8:30 p.m. ET

All three games have gone Under the total even though this series is tied for the 2nd-fastest pace in the 1st round of the 2024 NBA Playoffs. Nuggets-Lakers Game 3 went Under the 217.5 total by a half-point when Denver won 112-105 in Los Angeles Thursday. Despite three straight Unders, the total for Nuggets-Lakers Saturday is higher than Game 3. 

My read here is the inevitability of the Lakers losing this series will free them up offensively. What do they have the lose? Speed up the tempo. Chuck threes. Attack the basket. There's no tomorrow so f*** it. Los Angeles's 105 points in Game 3 was its highest-scoring game of the series. The Lakers are at home and their role players should shoot better. 

Los Angeles Lakers All-Star LeBron James in action against the Denver Nuggets in Game 3 of the 1st round for the 2024 NBA playoffs at Crypto.com Arena. (Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports)

LAL guards D'Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves are bad defenders. The Nuggets have three guys averaging 20+ PPG in this series: Probable 2023-24 NBA MVP, Nikola Jokić, PG Jamal Murray, and SF Michael Porter Jr. Denver PF Aaron Gordon keeps cutting and getting easy baskets.

I.e. I don't see how the Lakers stop the Nuggets. Lastly, my biggest concern is a complete no-show by the Lakers. But, even then, the Nuggets could score 120+ points and do most of the work in cashing the Over. 

Bet 1.1u on OVER 218 in Nuggets-Lakers (-110) at DraftKings. The OVER is playable up to 219 in Game 4. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my NBA 2023-24 betting record via X all season.