NBA Playoffs 2024 Picks: Cavaliers Vs. Celtics, Mavericks Vs. Thunder Openers

A massive misread in the Eastern Conference Semifinals opener between the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks Monday cost me a winning night in the 2024 NBA Playoffs. I bet UNDER 217.5 and it looked good through two quarters. Unfortunately, the pace sped up in the second half and Pacers-Knicks cruised Over the total with New York beating Indiana 121-117. I did minimize the damage from that game by cashing the Under for Pacers PF Pascal Siakam's point-prop. 

LISTEN to the OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark Podcast previewing Monday and Tuesday in the 2024 NBA Playoffs

The opposite happened in the nightcap of the NBA Playoffs Monday. My bet on the Minnesota Timberwolves +5.5 vs. the Denver Nuggets easily covered when the T-Wolves mauled the Nuggets 106-80, without starting center, Rudy Gobert. However, the Over bet on Minnesota SF Jaden McDaniels 8.5 points lost because he got into foul trouble and only attempted seven shots. 

Regardless, I'm looking at Monday as a speed bump in an otherwise successful NBA postseason betting campaign thus far. More importantly, I feel much stronger about the Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder Tuesday than the other three Game 1s in this round. With that in mind, let's make some money on Tuesday's slate, yeah? 

2024 NBA Playoffs Betting Card For Tuesday, May 7th 

The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.

Cleveland Cavaliers (+12.5) at Boston Celtics, 7 p.m. ET

The last four home favorites in Game 1 of the second round have lost outright. This includes the reigning NBA champion Denver Nuggets losing to the Minnesota Timberwolves Saturday. Remember, the Celtics lost at home to the Miami Heat last year in Game 1 of the second round. Boston has laid several duds at home in the previous two playoffs. 

There is the "rust vs. rest" debate. The Celtics are going into Game 1 with five days of rest and just one day for the Cavaliers. Usually, I don’t take sides in the "rust vs. rest" argument. Yet, because Boston plays with its food too much and randomly no-shows at home in the playoffs, Cleveland is a live ‘dog in Game 1. 

Furthermore, the Cavs have played the Celtics tough this season. Boston is 2-1 straight up (SU) vs. Cleveland in the regular season. But, the Celtics are just 1-2 against the spread in those games and both SU wins were by less than 10 points. Surprisingly, the Cavaliers hit more threes at a higher rate than the Celtics in their regular-season series. 

Cleveland Cavaliers SG Donovan Mitchell crams it on the Celtics at TD Garden in Boston. (David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports)

Also, Cleveland C Jarrett Allen’s injury is canceled out because Boston big Kristaps Porzingis will miss this series with an injury too. The Cavs can put a small-ball lineup on the floor with four 3-point shooters and PF Evan Mobley playing center. Cavaliers' 6-man, and microwave scorer, Caris LeVert will get more playing time with Allen out. 

And, as weird as this sounds, LeVert balls the Celtics up. LeVert scored a career-high 51 points in Boston while playing for the Brooklyn Nets in 2020 and 41 points again in Boston in 2022. He scored an efficient 15.7 points on 59.3% true shooting (.486/.400/.833) in three games vs. the Celtics in the regular season. 

Cleveland All-Star SG Donovan Mitchell is not my kind of player, but he can score against anyone in the NBA. Mitchell averaged 30.0 points in two games vs. the Celtics in the regular season. Ultimately, Boston won’t cover the spread because Cleveland will have enough scoring to keep this a single-digit game.

BET 1.1u on Cleveland +12.5 (-110) at Caesars. The Cavaliers are playable down to +10. 

• Wait until the official starting 5's are announced because Allen is "questionable" on the NBA's 11:30 a.m. ET injury report. If Allen gets ruled out, we might get a better number on the Cavs closer to tip-off.

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PS Player Prop: Boston Celtics C Al Horford UNDER 9.5 points 

Horford will start Game 1 because of the injury to KP. But, since Allen will most likely miss Game 1 as well, Horford will be guarded by Cleveland's best defender, Mobley. In the first round, Horford had the lowest usage rate among Celtics who played at least 100 minutes. 

During the regular season, Horford averaged 5.3 points in three games vs. the Cavaliers. The 37-year-old veteran scored 10+ points in 23 of his 65 games this season. Horford scored less than double digits in just 16 of his 33 starts as well. 

Boston Celtics C Al Horford posts up Miami Heat SG Duncan Robinson in Game 1 in the first round of the 2024 NBA playoffs at TD Garden. (Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports)

The legal U.S. sportsbooks differ on Horford's point-prop than the sharper offshore shops. Pinnacle Sportsbook, a market-making oddsmaker, has the Under for Horford's 9.5 points priced at -142 while FanDuel has it at -115 and DraftKings at -118. Eventually, the legal U.S. sportsbooks will move closer to Pinnacle's price, so let's lock in a bet on the Under ASAP. 

RISK 0.35u to win 0.3u on Celtics C Al Horford UNDER 9.5 points (-115) at FanDuel. 

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Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder (-3.5), 9:30 p.m. ET

My favorite thing about the Thunder is they can put out a lineup with four 3-point shooters surrounding one of the best point guards in the NBA, MVP finalist Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA). As a team, the Thunder shot the highest 3-point percentage during the regular season. 

Three of Oklahoma City’s starters are deadly from behind the arc: SG Luguentz Dort (39.4%), forward Jaylen Williams (42.7%), and C Chet Holmgren (37.0%). Five of OKC’s backups shooting at least 40.0% from deep. They had the highest wide-open 3-point attempt rate in the NBA during the regular season because SGA gets into the paint at will. 

"Wide-open" is when a 3-point shooter is 6+ feet from the nearest defender. The Thunder have three ball-handlers in their starting 5: Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, and point-forward Josh Giddey. Essentially, those guys beat their defender off the dribble and kick it out to a 3-point shooter. 

The Thunder will get into the paint vs. a Dallas team that was 18th in defensive rating during the regular season. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are bad defenders and the Mavs cannot hide both. Plus, Dallas cannot exploit OKC's biggest weakness — defensive rebounding — since the Mavs were 24th in offensive rebounding rate in the regular season. 

Moreover, the Thunder swept the 8-seed New Orleans Pelicans in the first round, so they got a week’s rest. Oklahoma City is 11-0 SU at home with a rest advantage this season. OKC is winning by 11.7 points per game on average in those spots. The Thunder are 16-3 SU with a +12.3 scoring margin as home favorites against teams with a winning record. 

Since the Thunder are well-rested with a bunch of good 3-point shooters playing at home, Oklahoma City is -3.5, up to -5, is a gift. The Mavericks might still win this series. Luka is probably the best player on either team, which is the most important thing in playoff basketball. Dallas just won’t win, or cover, Game 1 in OKC. 

BET 1.65u on the Thunder -3.5 (-110) to profit 1.5u, available across the board. OKC is bet-able up to -5. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NBA 2023-24 betting record via X all season.