It's A Wrap For Indiana Pacers, New York Knicks Will Win Game 6

With their backs against the wall, the Indiana Pacers (2-3) host the New York Knicks (3-2) for Game 6 in the Eastern Conference Semifinals of the 2024 NBA Playoffs at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Luckily for the Pacers, the home team has won every game in this series. New York dump-trucked Indiana 121-91 at Madison Square Garden in Game 5 to take a 3-2 series lead. 

The undermanned Knicks are running everything through All-Star PG Jalen Brunson. He is averaging a postseason-best 33.9 points per game (PPG) with the highest usage rate at 36.5%. Brunson is the best player in the 2024 NBA Playoffs not named "Nikola Jokic". Pacers All-Star Tyrese Haliburton is shaken by the moment. Haliburton no-showed in Game 5, scoring 13 points in a team-high 33:58 minutes. 

New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers Game 6 odds (DraftKings) 

• Moneyline (ML): NEW YORK (+170) | Indiana (-205)
• Spread: KNICKS +5.5 (-110) | Pacers -5.5 (-110)
• Total — 215.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)

Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau made a brilliant adjustment for Game 5 by starting SG Miles Deuce McBride. Most of Indiana's shot attempts are threes and McBride is an elite perimeter defender. Haliburton was McBride's primary defensive assignment. This allows NYK to hide Brunson on Pacers SF Aaron Nesmith, who has the lowest usage rate among Indy's starters. 

And the Knicks will need everything they can get from Brunson in this close-out game. If Brunson scores less than 30 points, New York almost can't win. Furthermore, the Pacers don't have anyone to guard Brunson. People think Indiana PG T.J. McConnell is the answer and should get more playing time. But, Indy's only path to victory is hitting threes and McConnell's jumper is broken. 

New York Knicks SG Miles McBride celebrates with PG Jalen Brunson in Game 5 of the second round for the 2024 NBA Playoffs vs. the Indiana Pacers at Madison Square Garden. (Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports)

With that in mind, the Knicks are outperforming the Pacers in three of the "four factors" in this series. New York is narrowly beating Indiana in the turnover battle, handily winning the rebounding battle, and getting to the foul line at a much higher rate. I.e. the Knicks have more paths to victory because they are getting more freebies and winning the battle for possessions. 

BET 1.1u on the Knicks +5.5 (-110) and ‘sprinkle’ 0.4u on New York's +170 ML at DraftKings. 

_____________________________

P.S. Player Prop: New York Knicks SG Alec Burks OVER 10.5 points

Since Brunson needed help from someone, Thibodeau dusted off Burks for Games 3-5. Burks responded to the "next man up" mantra by averaging 17.3 points over those three games on 53.6% shooting. He's progressively gotten more minutes in each game, playing at least 21:21. Finally, in his 28 games with at least 20 minutes played this season for the Knicks and Detroit Pistons, Burks scored 11+ points 22 times. 

BET 0.36u on Knicks SG Alec Burks OVER 10.5 points (-120) to profit 0.3u at BetMGM. 

_____________________________

Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NBA 2023-24 betting record via X all season.