Bounce-Back Monday In 2024 NBA Playoffs: Celtics-Cavaliers, Thunder-Mavericks
From a betting perspective, the 2024 NBA Playoffs are starting to look like the regular season for me. I.e. it sucks. Until this past weekend, I was building my bankroll and recovering lost units (u). But, I've lost three consecutive days in the NBA postseason. Instead of taking accountability, I'll say, "My handicapping was strong and the players and coaches let me down".
Rather than taking a couple of days off, I'll get back out there Monday and try to turn this thing around. Soon, there will be no NBA to bet and I'll be waiting for college football and the NFL to come back. With that in mind, let's take a look at the Boston Celtics vs. Cleveland Cavaliers and Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks Monday.
NBA Playoffs 2024 Betting Card For May 13
The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.
Cleveland Cavaliers PF Evan Mobley OVER 15.5 points vs. Boston Celtics
Mobley has scored at least 16 points in five of his 10 games this postseason, including all three games vs. the Celtics. This should continue to be a good series for Mobley because Boston is missing C Kristaps Porzingis. Celtics C Al Horford is too old and cannot guard the 22-year-old in space. Most of Mobley's teammates chuck threes, so he is Cleveland's lob threat and interior scorer.
Furthermore, Cavaliers All-Star SG Donovan Mitchell needs help. Mobley is Cleveland's best defensive player and has the highest offensive rating (134) for this series among players with at least 50 minutes played. Evan leads both teams in offensive rebounds (9) and can get easy outbacks against a Boston team that doesn't have an intimidating interior presence.
BET 0.4u on Cavaliers PF Evan Mobley OVER 15.5 points (+102) at FanDuel. Mobley's OVER is bet-able up to -135.
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Oklahoma City Thunder (+106) at Dallas Mavericks, 9:30 p.m. ET
Thunder All-Star PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA) has been the best player in this series thus far. He is scoring a series-best 31.0 points per game, grabbing 10.3 boards, and throwing 7.7 assists. Per Basketball Reference, SGA has an average "game score" of 27.5. Dallas's "game score" leader is PF P.J. Washington at 19.8.
The Mavs took a series lead after beating the Thunder 105-101 in Game 3. It was a nail-biter despite Dallas grabbing nine more offensive rebounds (15-6%) and OKC shot just 33.3% from behind the arc (10-for-30) Saturday. Thunder PF Jalen Williams and big Chet Holmgren combined for 29 points on 12-for-21 shooting in Game 3.
Oklahoma City Thunder PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander takes a layup on the Mavericks during the Western Conference Semifinals in the 2024 NBA Playoffs at American Airlines Center in Dallas. (Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports)
However, SGA needs more help and I'm betting he gets it Monday. At least Williams and Holmgren shot well Saturday. I have a hunch the Mavericks will focus more on Gilgeous-Alexander in Game 4 and Williams and Holmgren will get good looks. Either way, Oklahoma City is loaded with good 3-point shooters, and only a few need to step up if SGA is hooping.
It feels like this series goes seven games. The most likely path to a seven-game series is the Thunder tying the series Monday, winning at home in Game 5, losing in Dallas in Game 6, and hosting a must-win Game 7 in OKC. Finally, it's hard to beat the same team three times in a row, especially one as good as the Thunder.
BET 1u on Oklahoma City's moneyline (+106) at FanDuel. The Thunder's moneyline is playable up to -130.
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