NBA Playoffs 2024 Monday Game 2 Picks: Magic-Cavaliers, 76ers-Knicks

After putting on a clinic in NBA betting most of last weekend, I got humbled this past weekend. I ran my NBA betting win streak up to 15 games before losing my player prop look in Game 1 of the Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks Saturday. I've only banked one win since then (New Orleans Pelicans +8.5 over the Oklahoma City Thunder Sunday), but I'm 16-5 since April 12th. 

2024 NBA Playoff Best Bets For Monday

The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.

Orlando Magic (+5.5) at Cleveland Cavaliers, 7 p.m. ET

As -5.5 home favorites, the Cavaliers crushed the Magic in a 97-83 wire-to-wire Game 1 win Saturday. Cleveland All-Star SG Donovan Mitchell scored a game-high 30 points. Cavs C Jarrett Allen and PF Evan Mobley had double-doubles. I.e. the Cavaliers’ best players did their jobs and the public will hammer the Cavs after their lopsided Game 1 win. 

Also, I saw enough out of the Magic to back them on the zigzag theory. This is when you bet the team that just lost in an NBA playoff series. Orlando "left meat on the bone" Saturday by shooting just 63.3% from the foul line (19-of-30). In the regular season, Orlando shot 75.9% on free throws. Based on that, the Magic had 3.8 fewer points than expected at the charity stripe Saturday.

Cleveland Cavaliers SG Donovan Mitchell sizes up Orlando Magic SG Franz Wagner during Game 1 of the 1st round for the 2024 NBA Playoffs at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Ohio. (David Richard-USA TODAY Sports)

Furthermore, Magic guards Jalen Suggs, Gary Harris Jr., and Cole Anthony went 1-for-16 from behind the arc. If those guys made three more 3-balls Saturday, they’d only be 25.0% from deep, which is still bad. Yet, that adds nine points to Orlando’s final score. Between missed free throws and awful 3-point shooting, the Magic missed out on roughly 13 points in Game 1 and lost by 14. 

Finally, when you combine shooting progression back up to the mean, this young Orlando team getting the playoff butterflies out of their bellies, and overwhelming public support for Cleveland, the MAGIC +5.5 (down to +5) is the sharp bet for Game 2. 

Bet 1.1u on Magic +5.5 (-110) at Caesars. Give me Orlando down to +4.5. 

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UNDER 204.5 in Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks, 7:30 p.m. ET

New York rallied back from a 13-point deficit to win and cover vs. Philadelphia, 111-104, Saturday despite a bad game from Knicks All-Star PG Jalen Brunson. He shot 30.8% from the field (1-for-6 from deep) and had the 2nd-worst offensive rating on the team. Game 1 went Over the 208.5 total by 5.5 points despite a plodding tempo. 

There was an 87.3 pace Saturday and the average NBA pace in the regular season was 98.5. If Game 2 plays at a similar pace, I’ll take my chances with the UNDER 204.5. It’s wise to fade recent results in sports betting, especially in playoff basketball. All four Knicks-76ers regular-season meetings went Under the total by nearly 30 points per game.

New York’s Tom Thibodeau and Philadelphia’s Nick Nurse are elite defensive head coaches. I’m expecting their adjustments for Game 2 to be more defensive-oriented. New York grabbed 23 offensive rebounds in Game 1. Defensive rebounding is all effort and a simple thing for Nurse to focus on. Plus, Knicks C Mitchell Robinson should get more playing time Monday.  

Philadelphia 76ers C Joel Embiid shoots over New York Knicks C Mitchell Robinson in Game 1 in their 1st-round 2024 NBA playoffs series at Madison Square Garden. (Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports)

Sixers C Joel Embiid scored 29 points but struggled with Robinson guarding him. Embiid shot just 2-for-11 Saturday vs. Robinson Saturday. Robinson had the best defensive rating for either team in Game 1 and blocked a game-high four shots. New York forwards OG Anunoby and Josh Hart and Robinson would be one of the best defensive frontcourts in the NBA over an entire season. 

Moreover, Philadelphia PG Kyle Lowry and Knicks backup SG Miles Deuce McBride had unsustainable 3-point shooting performances in Game 1. Lowry went 4-for-7 from behind the arc, McBride was 5-for-7, and NYK was 16-of-35 (45.7%) as a team. These teams combined for 28 threes Saturday and averaged 25.3 made threes per game in the regular season. Take away a few of those threes in Game 1 and the Under would’ve cashed.

Bet 0.55u on UNDER 204.5 in 76ers-Knicks (-110) at FanDuel. 

• I'd wait until closer to tip-off before locking in a bet on the Under. This total dropped from 209.5 because Sixers All-Star SG Tyrese Maxey is "questionable" with an illness and missed shootaround Monday morning. Embiid is "questionable" as well. I'm expecting Embiid and Maxey to play Monday. So, this total should move back up when they are announced in the official starting lineup. Unfortunately, I have to lock in a bet ASAP for content purposes.

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my NBA 2023-24 betting record via X all season.