NBA Playoffs 2024 Monday Best Bets Includes Two Picks To Win, Two Player Props

The first round of my 2024 NBA Playoffs betting experience ended with a dud Sunday. I gave out the UNDER 194.5 in Game 7 of the Orlando Magic vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers series, and it lost when Cleveland beat Orlando 106-94. Magic-Cavaliers trended UNDER heading into the fourth quarter, so my analysis was sound. Nevertheless, I got screwed because they shot a combined 56-for-66 from the foul line. 

Unfortunately, that can happen when you're betting NBA totals lower than 200 nowadays. All in all, the 2024 NBA Playoffs have been profitable thus far. Including the play-in tournament, my record is 30-21 for +9.21 units (u) with a +16.3% return on investment. I need to duplicate that performance in the second round to get back to even this NBA season. 

2024 NBA Playoffs Bet Slip: Monday, May 6th 

The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.

UNDER 217.5 (-110) in Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks, 7:30 p.m. ET

Sportsbooks are begging for bettors to take the Over 217. The average total of the three Pacers-Knicks regular-season meetings was 240.5. That fact alone will get people to take the Over Monday. Figuring out the pace is the most important thing for betting totals and I’m predicting the Knicks will turn this series into a rock-fight. 

They played at the slowest pace in the NBA during the regular season. New York can dictate the pace because Indiana isn’t aggressive on defense and doesn't force turnovers. Knicks All-Star PG Jalen Brunson is one of the best floor generals in the NBA. 

Furthermore, NYK will control the pace in Game 1 because they’ll own the boards. During the regular season, New York grabbed 4.6 fewer rebounds per game than its opponents and Indiana hauled in 1.9 fewer rebounds. Also, Indiana shoots worse on the road and Game 1 is in New York. 

New York Knicks PG Jalen Brunson directs traffic while Indiana Pacers SG Andrew Nembhard plays defense at Madison Square Garden. (Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports)

The Pacers have a 58.8% effective field goal rate at home, which accounts for 2- and 3-point shooting, and 56.9% on the road. As home favorites in the regular season and playoffs, the Knicks are 14-19 Over/Under (O/U) with a -4.0 margin on the total. Oddly, NYK scores 3.2 more points per game (PPG) on the road but allows 5.8 fewer PPG in Madison Square Garden. 

New York went 2-1 O/U vs. the Philadelphia 76ers in the 1st round of the playoffs. Yet, the Over 204 cashed in Philly’s 112-106 Game 5 win because 24 points were scored in overtime. That plus 76ers-Knicks Game 6 going Over the 202.5 total in NYK’s 118-115 win might lead to some "recency bias" in the market. It’s wise in sports betting, and the NBA playoffs, to fade recent results. 

BET 1.08u on the UNDER 217.5 in Pacers-Knicks (-108) at FanDuel. The UNDER is playable down to 215. 

• Wait until right before tip-off before betting this UNDER. According to Pregame.com, roughly 80% of the action as of noon ET is on the Over. The public loves betting Overs and we might get a higher total if we have patience.

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PS Player Prop: Pacers PF Pascal Siakam UNDER 20.5 Points 

New York forwards OG Anunoby and Precious Achiuwa played with Siakam at the Toronto Raptors earlier this season, so they know his game and tendencies. Achiuwa didn't get much playing time in Round 1. But, Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau should throw him out there because of his familiarity with Siakam. 

More importantly, OG will be Pascal's primary defender and Anunonby is one of the best defensive players in the NBA. OG didn't play in either Pacers-Knicks game after Indiana acquired Siakam and Anunoby went to New York. Achiuwa started those games in OG's absence and Siakam scored 18 and 19 points. 

Indiana Pacers PF Pascal Siakam on New York Knicks PF Precious Achiuwa at Madison Square Garden. (John Jones-USA TODAY Sports)

Finally, the Knicks have one of the best interior defenses in the NBA and Pascal isn't a 3-point shooter. In the first round, Siakam shot just 27.3% from behind the arc against the Milwaukee Bucks. He shot 26.7% from three in four games against the Knicks during the regular season and, predictably, Siakam's 3-point shooting rate lowers on the road. 

RISK 0.34u to win 0.3u on Indiana Pacers PF Pascal Siakam going UNDER 20.5 points at DraftKings (-112). I'd bet Siakam's UNDER up to -135. 

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Minnesota Timberwolves (+5.5) at Denver Nuggets, 10 p.m. ET

The Timberwolves jumped out to a series lead with a 106-99 upset Game 1 win at the Denver Nuggets Saturday. T-Wolves All-Star SG Anthony Edwards and Minnesota’s defense put on a show. Edwards scored a game-high 43 points on 17-for-29 shooting. 

The Timberwolves forced eventual 2023-24 NBA MVP Nikola Jokić to turn it over seven times and held Nuggets PG Jamal Murray to just 17 points. Game 1 was Denver’s 5th time this season it scored less than 100 points. One of those games was against Minnesota and Murray missed four of them. 

Murray is the difference-maker for Denver. If Murray can score 25+ points, the Nuggets are tough to beat. He’ll have to do so against the best defensive backcourt in the NBA featuring Edwards and T-Wolves wing Jaden McDaniels. Murray averaged only 17.3 PPG in three meetings with Minnesota in the regular season. 

Moreover, the Timberwolves have three bigs to throw at Jokić, including the probable 2023-24 NBA Defensive Player of the Year, C Rudy Gobert, PF Karl-Anthony Towns (KAT), and Sixth Man of the Year, C Naz Reid. Jokić's numbers are almost guaranteed. Yet, if they can hold him to under 50.0% from the field and force turnovers, it’s a win for the T-Wolves. 

Nuggets C Nikola Jokic gets double-teamed by Minnesota Timberwolves bigs Naz Reid and Rudy Gobert in Game 1 of the 2nd round of the 2024 NBA Playoffs at Ball Arena in Denver. (Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports)

There’s too big of a tax based on the logic "Edwards won’t score 40 again and the Nuggets won’t lose Games 1 and 2 at home". Denver closed Game 1 as -4.5 favorites and it’s a full point higher Monday. Edwards has a much easier matchup than Jokić and Murray. 

Nuggets PF Aaron Gordon is their best defender and SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope cannot guard Edwards. That said, Gordon is preoccupied with Towns, making it tougher for Denver to double-team Edwards. Between Ant-Man, KAT, and Minnesota’s defense, the Nuggets aren’t 5.5 points better than the Timberwolves. 

BET 1.05u on the Timberwolves +5.5 (-105) at Caesars. Give me Minnesota down to +4.5 

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PS Player Prop: Timberwolves SF Jaden McDaniels OVER 8.5 points 

Offensively, McDaniels was awful in Game 1. He scored 0 points on 0-for-7 shooting. But, his offense is gravy because McDaniels is one of the best on-ball defenders in the NBA. Plus, McDaniels has gone from dud to stud in all five postseason games this year. He scored 9 points in Game 1 vs. the Phoenix Suns last round, 25 in Game 2, 5 in Game 3, and 18 in Game 4. 

Either way, I'm calling for a bounce-back game for McDaniels. He will probably defend Murray most of the game, so the Timberwolves need him out there. McDaniels played 39 minutes in Game 1. He is a capable 3-point shooter and is the only Minnesota starter who cuts without the ball. Lastly, Jaden has scored 9+ points in 46 of his 72 games in the regular season. 

BET 0.35u on Minnesota SF Jaden McDaniels OVER 8.5 points (-118) at DraftKings. 

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