Making Up For A 1-1 Thursday In NBA Playoffs 2024 With Four 'Locks' Friday

If I didn't nail the game script for Game 2 Thursday of the Cavaliers-Celtics Eastern Conference Semifinals series in the 2024 NBA Playoffs, I'd admit to getting lucky to cash the Under 212.5. Like I said, "Blowouts are where Overs go to die". I didn't have the Cavs crushing the Celtics 118-94 in Boston. The loss of my Oklahoma City -4.5 wager in Mavericks-Thunder Game 2 of the Western Conference Semifinals was a bad read. It's a more even-matched series than I suggested in my Thursday handicap. 

All in all, I'm still doing very well this postseason. Entering Friday, my betting record for the 2024 NBA Playoffs is 37-25 (59.7%), which is good for 11.09 units (u) and a +16.8% return on investment. Although, as you can see above, I still have more work to do to get my head above water for the season. With that in mind, let's attack Friday's slate. 

NBA Playoffs 2024 Betting Card: May 10th 

The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.

OVER 222.5 in New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers, 7 p.m. ET

Unfortunately, I missed the ending of Knicks-Pacers Game 3 because I was at the movie premiere for my homie Kevin Kraft’s, The Second Coming of John Cooper. I watched the first half then followed the box score on apps. 

So, I didn’t see New York forward OG Anunonby exit in the second half with a hamstring injury. Anunoby will miss Game 3 and his absence would be tough for the Knicks to overcome. Before leaving Game 2, Anunoby scored 28 points on 10-for-19 shooting. OG is New York’s best defender and guards Indiana’s best scorer, PF Pascal Siakiam. 

New York Knicks SF OG Anunoby tries to dunk on Indiana Pacers C Myles Turner during Game 2 of the second round of the 2024 NBA Playoffs at Madison Square Garden. (Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports)

The Knicks are already missing All-Star PF Julius Randle, elite defensive big Mitchell Robinson, and scoring SF Bojan Bogdanovic. That said, I’m prioritizing New York’s defensive injuries over the offensive absences, and taking OVER 222.5 (up to 225). 

Indiana likes to get out in transition and that benefits the Knicks. Per CleaningTheGlass.com, NYK is second in fastbreak points added per 100 possessions in the 2024 NBA Playoffs. It’s easier to stop Knicks All-Star PG Jalen Brunson if you can set up your half-court defense. New York SF Josh Hart can get easy buckets in the fastbreak and other Knicks will hit transition threes. 

READ: Rick Carlisle's Pointed Comments On NBA Playoff Officiating Earns Pacers Coach $35,000 Fine

Anunoby’s a great 3-point shooter, but Knicks SG Donte DiVincenzo is shooting his a** through the first two games this series. DiVincenzo is hitting 52.4% of his 3-balls and scoring 26.5 points per game (PPG). Indiana’s defense was 24th in defensive rating during the regular season. 

The Pacers had the highest defensive free-throw attempt rate and Brunson is one of the craftiest players in the NBA. Indy whined about "missed calls" in Games 1-2 and could get home-cooking from the refs Friday. "Playoff officiating" is a thing in the NBA. But, statistically speaking, the Knicks should get plenty of freebies in Game 3. 

New York Knicks PG Jalen Brunson shoots over Indiana Pacers SG Ben Sheppard in the second round for the 2024 NBA Playoffs. (Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports)

NYK crashes the offensive glass like madmen and scores mad second-chance points. Indiana was 26th in defensive rebounding rate in the regular season. The Pacers get great looks from three and should shoot better in their home gym Friday. New York is 47.2% from 3-point range in this series and Indiana is 41.7%. I.e. both teams can score 115+ points in Game 3. 

Finally, there are several Over-friendly trends. The Pacers have gone Over the total in all three home games this postseason by an average of 13.7 PPG. The Knicks are 2-1 Over/Under (O/U) with a +14.7 O/U margin. During the regular season, New York was 16-8 O/U on the road vs. teams with a winning record and a +7.2 O/U margin. Indiana scored 4.5 more PPG (125.5-121.0) at home in the regular season. 

BET 1.08u on OVER 222.5 in Knicks-Pacers (-108) at DraftKings. The OVER is playable up to 224 if Brunson plays. 

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PS Player Prop: Pacers PF Obi Toppin OVER 10.5 points 

I’m going to bet on Toppin’s heater continuing in Game 3. Toppin has been instant offense off the bench this postseason. He has scored 12+ points in six consecutive games while shooting 59.3% from the field and 40.0% from behind the arc over that span. Obi has the fourth-highest usage rate on the Pacers in this series. 

Toppin plays on the second unit with Indiana backup PG T.J. McConnell, who leads the team in assist and usage rates in this series. I successfully bet Under McConnell’s 10.5-point prop in Game 2 partially because he likes to set up teammates instead of shooting. Toppin benefits from McConnell’s unselfishness. 

Also, these are revenge games for Obi. The Brooklyn native was drafted by the Knicks in 2020. His hometown team offloaded Toppin for two second-round picks during the offseason. Obi is averaging 12.4 PPG in five meetings with New York this season, including the playoffs. He’s scored 12+ points in three of those games and hit exactly two 3-balls in four straight. 

As we discussed above, the Pacers like to get in transition and Toppin is a great finisher in the fastbreak. The plus-money payout for Obi’s 3-point-prop is enticing but I’m more confident he scores 11+ points Friday. 

BET 0.44u on Indiana PF Obi Toppin OVER 10.5 points (-110) at DraftKings to profit 0.4u. 

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UNDER 205 in Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves, 9:30 p.m. ET

This series has played at a snail’s pace thus far. They are playing 90.3 possessions per 48 minutes and that would be the slowest of any team in the 2024 NBA Playoffs. Plus, the Nuggets are 3-6-1 O/U as road underdogs this season with a -7.0 O/U differential and the T-Wolves are 17-22-1 O/U with a -4.9 O/U margin at home. 

Denver scored just 80 points Monday despite Minnesota center, and 2023-24 NBA Defensive Player of the Year, Rudy Gobert missed Game 2 because of the birth of his daughter. It’ll be three days since Game 2. With 2-3 days off, the Nuggets are 3-13 O/U with a -6.3 O/U margin and the Timberwolves are 5-11 O/U. Moreover, Denver needs to play like people thought Minnesota should play entering this series. 

The T-Wolves are much more athletic and the Nuggets need to slow it down. They cannot go shot-for-shot with Minnesota All-Stars Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns and 2023-24 Sixth Man of the Year, PF Naz Reid. Especially on the road. The Nuggets will limit the possessions and try to steal this game in the closing moments. 

Minnesota’s defense has the perfect guys to defend Nuggets big, and 2023-24 NBA MVP, Nikola Jokic and PG Jamal Murray, Denver’s only scoring threats. Edwards and T-Wolves SF Jaden McDaniels are two of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA. Gobert returns for Game 3. Besides, fellow Frenchman, and San Antonio Spurs phenom Victor Wembanyama, Gobert is the best guy to defend Jokic. 

My lone concern about taking the Under in Timberwolves-Nuggets Game 3 is it feels like a fake sharp bet. Everyone covering the NBA is talking up Minnesota’s defense, and rightfully so. Yet, I cannot help myself. Denver scores 5.5 fewer PPG (116.5-111.0) on the road and Minnesota allows 5.3 fewer PPG (108.6-103.3) at home. 

BET 1.1u on UNDER 205 in Nuggets-Timberwolves (-110) at FanDuel. The UNDER is playable down to 203. 

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PS Player Prop: Nuggets PF Aaron Gordon UNDER 12.5 points 

It's hard for Gordon to score paint points when Gobert is on the floor. Gobert played in the series opener and Gordon scored 9 points on 4-for-6 shooting. In Game 2, Gordon scored 20 points on 8-for-14 shooting with Gobert out. Denver runs big-to-big plays for Gordon with Jokic as the scorer. But, that's not an ideal strategy if Gobert is in the paint. 

Additionally, Gordon's efficiency drops in away games. His true shooting rate goes from 65.8% at home to 56.2% on the road. Gordon's offensive rating falls to 121 on the road from 128 in Denver. During the regular season, Gordon averaged just 9.3 PPG with a 103 offensive rating in three games vs. the Timberwolves. In this series, the 28-year-old has the second-lowest usage rate among the Nuggets' starters. 

BET 0.44u on Denver PF Aaron Gordon UNDER 12.5 points (-110) at DraftKings. 

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