NBA Playoffs 2024: Dallas Mavericks At Minnesota Timberwolves Game 1 Best Bets

The Minnesota Timberwolves host the Dallas Mavericks for Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals (WCF) Wednesday in the 2024 NBA Playoffs. Tip-off at the Target Center is 8:30 p.m. ET. Minnesota is -4.5 favorites across the market and the total sits at 206.5-207 depending on where you shop. The T-Wolves beat the Mavs 3-1 in the season series. But, those four meetings were before the trade deadline when Dallas acquired two starting bigs in C Daniel Gafford and PF P.J. Washington. 

Minnesota chopped the head off the defending NBA champion, upsetting the Denver Nuggets in Game 7 of the Western Conference Semifinals. Dallas eliminated the 1-seed Oklahoma City Thunder in six games last round. The Timberwolves are the healthier team entering the conference finals. T-Wolves PG Mike Conley is dealing with an Achilles injury. All-Star Luka Dončić is playing through knee and ankle injuries and Mavs backup big Maxi Kleber might return later in this series. 

I started Minnesota's bandwagon at the beginning of the postseason. In my conference finals preview, I added a "Timberwolves to win the NBA championship" bet (+275) before the WCF. Instead of overthinking Game 1, I will BET the TIMBERWOLVES -4.5 (-108) at DraftKings, which has the cheapest Minnesota spread available as of Wednesday at noon ET. 

Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (-4.5) Game 1 analysis 

There's a profitable betting system for the NBA playoffs I'm ignoring. According to the Action Network, over the last 20 postseasons, teams are 17-30-1 vs. the spread in Game 1 after a 7-game series vs. teams that didn’t play a Game 7 in the previous round. 

Who thought the T-Wolves would go seven games with the Nuggets after Minnesota won the first two games in Denver? Plus, the Indiana Pacers covered in a Game 1 loss to the Boston Celtics Tuesday after going seven games with the New York Knicks.

More importantly, there is more half-court basketball during the playoffs. The Timberwolves are out-scoring the Mavericks 100.9-94.0 in points per 100 half-court plays run this postseason, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). Also, Minnesota should own Dallas on the glass in the WCF. 

During the regular season, the T-Wolves grabbed 2.2 more rebounds per game than their opponents, while the Mavs grabbed 2.2 fewer rebounds per game. Dallas is leading the playoffs in putback points per miss, according to CTG, but that won’t work against Minnesota.

The Mavericks’ first two opponents in the playoffs were the Los Angeles Clippers and Thunder. LAC was 23rd in defensive rebounding rate during the regular season and OKC was 29th. The Timberwolves have a lot more size than both and were eighth in defensive rebounding rate in the regular season.

Minnesota Timberwolves SG Anthony Edwards shoots a fadeaway over Nuggets SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in Game 1 of the Western Conference Semifinals of the 2024 NBA Playoffs at Ball Arena in Denver. (Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports)

Furthermore, teams with the best player in the series usually win and T-Wolves All-Star Anthony Edwards is that guy here. Luka has better "counting stats", including points, rebounds, and assists. But, Edwards outranks Luka in Win Shares per 48 minutes, VORP ("Value Over Replacement Player"), and PER ("Player Efficiency Rating").

Finally, Ant-Man is a great two-way player, whereas Dončić is a liability on defense. With that in mind, the Mavericks have two players on defense, Luka and Kyrie Irving. While the T-Wolves only have one, Conley.

BET 1.05 units (u) on the Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5 (-105) at DraftKings. The T-Wolves are playable up to -5. 

P.S. Player Prop: Timberwolves SG Nickeil Alexander-Walker OVER 6.5 points 

Alexander-Walker is averaging the most minutes of any Timberwolves backup this postseason, including 2023-24 NBA Sixth Man of the Year, PF Naz Reid. Perhaps we are getting Alexander-Walker at a "buy low" spot since he went scoreless in Game 7 vs. the Nuggets on 0-for-5 shooting from three. 

Nickeil averaged 8.0 points per game on 39.1% shooting from behind the arc during the regular season. He scored 7+ points in 46 of 82 regular-season games. Moreover, Alexander-Walker has scored 9+ points in six of his 11 games in these playoffs and three of his five home games. 

Lastly, the legal U.S. sportsbooks are "off-market" from the sharper offshore shop, Pinnacle Sportsbook. Pinnacle is a "market-making sportsbook" whose odds the domestic legal oddsmakers typically mimic. Currently, FanDuel has Alexander-Walker's point-prop at -106 while Pinnacle is -116. 

BET 0.32u on Minnesota SG Nickeil Alexander-Walker OVER 6.5 points at FanDuel (-106). 

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