'Get-Right' Sunday In The NBA Playoffs: Knicks-Pacers, Nuggets-Timberwolves

Alright, I've officially cooled off in the 2024 NBA Playoffs. It was all good this time last week, but I've had back-to-back losing nights in the NBA postseason, and I'm pissed. Granted, if I didn't recklessly add Boston Celtics PG Jrue Holiday's point-prop onto my betting card, I would've chopped Saturday. 

Either way, I don't need chops, I need wins because the NBA season is winding down. My response is the KISS method: "Keep It Simple, Stupid". With that in mind, I'm taking a stance in both Game 4s Sunday: New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers and Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves. 

NBA Playoffs 2024 Betting Card For May 12

The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.

New York Knicks (+5.5) at Indiana Pacers, 3:30 p.m. ET

Indiana got back into this series with a 111-106 Game 3 win in a back-and-forth contest. Knicks-Pacers Friday had nine lead changes, and these teams split the "four factors". Indy got great games from its two best guys and New York All-Star PG Jalen Brunson had a down-game by the crazy standard he set in the 2024 NBA Playoffs. 

Pacers All-Star PG Tyrese Haliburton scored 35 points on 53.8% shooting in Game 3 and dished a game-high 7 assists. Indiana PF Pascal Siakam added an efficient 26 points on 9-for-14 shooting. Brunson leads the NBA postseason with 34.6 points per game (PPG). But, he scored "only" 26 points Friday and threw 5 turnovers with 6 assists. 

Despite Haliburton and Siakam balling out, the Pacers won Game 3 because they out-rebounded the Knicks 42-41. However, this isn't a sustainable way for Indiana to win. New York's rebounding rate is 2.4 percent higher in this series. During the regular season, the Knicks led the NBA in offensive rebounds and the Pacers were 28th in defensive rebounds. 

New York Knicks PG Jalen Brunson drives past Pacers SF Aaron Nesmith in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals in the 2024 NBA Playoffs at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indiana. (Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports)

Another weakness New York can exploit is Indiana getting into foul trouble. Like it or not, Brunson is one of the best in the NBA at manipulating the officials. If Indy defenders get "caught with their hands in the cookie jar," Brunson will draw a shooting foul and it'll probably be an "And-1". The problem for the Knicks is they cannot survive a mediocre game from Brunson. 

But, that happened Friday and New York held a lead going into the fourth quarter. Most NBA playoff series slow down as they conclude, which helps the Knicks. If they can limit the possessions, it'll be harder for the Pacers to cover the spread and NYK could steal Game 4 late. And, even with their injuries, the Knicks can win Sunday because Indiana's defense is horrible. 

BET 1.1u on New York +5.5 (-110) at FanDuel. The Knicks are playable down to +4. 

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Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves (-2.5), 8 p.m. ET

The market thinks the Nuggets are back after they crushed the Timberwolves 117-90 Friday in Minnesota in Game 3. Per Pregame.com, roughly two-thirds of the betting action is on Denver as of 10 a.m. ET Sunday. That said, the T-Wolves opened as -2.5 favorites and ticking up to -3 at the time of writing. Timberwolves All-Star SG Anthony Edwards wisely reminded his team this is a 7-game series. 

Regardless of the venue, the team down 0-2 in a series will always play harder. Plus, the Nuggets are the defending NBA champs. So, Denver was never going out like punks. Nikola Jokic won his third NBA MVP in the last four years earlier this week. Nuggets PG Jamal Murray scored 24 points in Game 3. If Murray plays well, Denver is almost impossible to beat since Jokic is a "lock" to play well. 

I'm re-applying the logic used to bet on the Timberwolves in Denver to Game 4 Sunday. Minnesota is the best defense in the NBA and built to defend the Nuggets. The T-Wolves have three bigs, C Rudy Gobert, PF Karl-Anthony Towns, and PF Naz Reid, who can attack Jokic differently. Plus, Edwards and Timberwolves SF Jaden McDaniels are two of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA and play aggressively.  

Minnesota Timberwolves SG Anthony Edwards talks trash after a breakaway dunk vs. the Denver Nuggets during Game 2 of the 2024 NBA Western Conference Semifinals at Ball Arena in Denver. (Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports)

Whatever adjustments Denver head coach Michael Malone made for Game 3 worked. But, like Ant-Man said, "It's a series", and injured T-Wolves head coach Chris Finch and his staff will make moves too. And because Minnesota has a deeper and more balanced roster, I'm betting Finch's adjustments work Sunday. 

Finally, I will bring up Edwards a fourth time because he is that good. Ant-Man is scoring a series-best 29.7 PPG and has a better true shooting rate than Jokic (66.7-56.3%). He has a ton of confidence, so he's not shaken up about the Nuggets crapping on the Timberwolves Friday. After stinking it up in Game 3, Edwards will return with a vengeance in Game 4. 

BET 1.1u on the Timberwolves -2.5 (-110) at DraftKings. Minnesota is bet-able up to -3.5. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NBA 2023-24 betting record via X all season.