'Locks' For All Four 1st-Round Game 1's Sunday In 2024 NBA Playoffs
Forgive me for the cocky headline, but ya boy is on fire. I'm writing this Saturday afternoon while watching Game 1 of the Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves series in the 1st-round of the 2024 NBA Playoffs, so maybe this ages poorly. That said, I've cashed 14 consecutive NBA bets and my season-long record has gone from pathetic to bad.
4 Best Bets for Sunday, April 21st in the 2024 NBA Playoffs
The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.
OVER 208.5 in Miami Heat at Boston Celtics, 1 p.m. ET
I like the OVER 208.5 (-110) at DraftKings (up to 211.5) and it feels like a sucker bet. The pro-Under argument: "Boston has six days off and will be rusty Sunday and Miami is missing co-leading scorer Jimmy Butler". However, besides that, I cannot figure out other reasons why the total is so low. Instead of overthinking it, I'll just bet the OVER 208.5.
The Celtics are -14 favorites Sunday. They are expected to crush the Butler-less Heat to get revenge for Miami's upset of Boston in the 2023 NBA Eastern Conference Finals. Since 2022, games with double-digit favorites and totals of 210 or less are 7-3-1 Over/Under (O/U) with a -7.7 O/U differential. Perhaps the Celtics put their foot on the Heat's throats and Game 1 dies in the 4th quarter.
Boston Celtics SF Jaylen Brown shoots over Miami Heat SF Jaime Jaquez Jr. at Kaseya Center in Florida. (Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports)
But, I'm anticipating Boston will go "bombs away" Sunday and Miami will have no choice but to chuck threes to keep up. The Heat are 24th in 3-point shots allowed per game. The Celtics hit the most threes made per game. They score 123.1 points per game (PPG) at home on 40.3% from 3-point land. Boston is 3-0 straight up (SU) vs. Miami this season, on 124.0 PPG. The totals are 2-1 O/U in those games, with a +10.3 O/U margin.
Finally, Miami can make up for Butler's absence offensively by pushing the pace and hitting threes. Boston is 23rd in 3-point attempts allowed per game and the Heat have several outstanding 3-point shooters. Miami guards Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson, and forwards Nikola Jovic, Haywood Highsmith, and Kevin Love can all hit 4+ threes in a game.
Bet 1.1u on OVER 208.5 in Heat-Celtics (-110) at DraftKings. The OVER is bet-able up to 211.
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Dallas Mavericks (-2.5) at Los Angeles Clippers, 3:30 p.m. ET
For what it's worth, the Clippers are 2-1 SU and against the spread (ATS) vs. the Mavericks this season. But, all three meetings were before Christmas, so none matter to Sunday's meeting. Post-All-Star break, Los Angeles has been trash and Dallas is ballin'. The Clippers are 15-14 SU and 9-20 ATS in the 2nd half of the season, while the Mavs are 18-9 SU and 19-8 ATS.
More importantly, ESPN NBA insider Adrian Wojnarowski Tweeted Saturday: "Increasing doubt about Kawhi Leonard’s availability for start of Clippers’ playoff series vs. Mavericks on Sunday". Kawhi is LAC's leading scorer with a career-high 62.6% true shooting (.525/.417/.885). Los Angeles is 7-7 SU without Leonard in the lineup and he is 2nd on the team in on/off net rating.
Dallas Mavericks' Luka Doncic throws an outlet pass to Kyrie Irving vs. the Charlotte Hornets at the American Airlines Center in Texas. (Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports)
Also, the Mavericks have been easy money as road favorites: Dallas is 20-4 SU and 19-5 ATS in those spots with a +7.8 scoring margin. The Mavs are so good on the road because Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving are ice-cold killers. Luka's scoring improves in the playoffs and Kyrie is the perfect co-star, who can carry the offense if Dončić is tired or having an off-night.
If Dallas speeds up the tempo, it should cruise past Los Angeles Sunday. The Mavericks are 6th in pace and 8th in fastbreak PPG. Whereas the Clippers are 28th in transition defensive efficiency. Usually, the 1st couple of games in a playoff series is a feeling-out process. I'm expecting the Mavs to win in a blowout Sunday and LAC to make adjustments for Game 2.
Bet 1.1u on the Mavericks -2.5 (-110) at DraftKings. Give me Dallas up to -3.5 if Kawhi Leonard is officially out for Game 1.
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Indiana Pacers (-115) at Milwaukee Bucks, 7 p.m. ET
The Bucks are victims of their stupidity. They foolishly fired former head coach Mike Budenholzer, who coached Milwaukee to the 2021 NBA title and is a low-key defensive innovator for this era. The Bucks fired Budenholzer’s replacement, Adrian Griffin, despite a 30-13 start, because the players allegedly complained about his defensive scheme.
Go figure. They hired Doc Rivers to replace Griffin and the Bucks are 17-19 under Rivers. Another example of Milwaukee’s stupidity is trading PG Jrue Holiday for All-Star Damian Lillard. The Boston Celtics scooped Holiday this offseason and they are the best team in the NBA. They thought so much of Holiday he signed a 4-year, $135M extension April 10th.
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Holiday is an above-average shooter and one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA. Lillard is an iso-scorer that doesn’t get looks for teammates and sucks defensively. Plus, Dame has been dealing with injuries and hasn’t practiced this week. The Bucks will be without All-Star Giannis Antetokounmpo and who knows how effective Lillard will be if he does play.
Pacers PG Tyrese Haliburton attacks the rim on Milwaukee Bucks forwards Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indiana. (Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports)
The Pacers are 4-1 SU and ATS vs. the Bucks this season and Indy’s offense dices up Milwaukee’s defense. Indiana is averaging 128.8 PPG vs. Milwaukee in 2023-24 and Pacers All-Star PG Tyrese Haliburton is the best player in this series until Giannis shows up. Haliburton is averaging 27.0 points and 11.0 assists against the Bucks this season with 65.1% true shooting (.532/.375/.909) and a 142 offensive rating.
Finally, the 3-ball is the great equalizer in the NBA nowadays, but Indiana is the best 3-point shooting team in the Association. Since the All-Star break, the Pacers lead the NBA in wide-open 3-point attempt rate at both ends of the floor. "Wide-open" is when the shooter is at least six feet from the nearest defender. With that in mind, Indiana would love to get into a shootout with Milwaukee.
Bet 2.30u on Indiana's moneyline (-115) at DraftKings. The Pacers are playable up to -135 before laying up to -3.
- For what it's worth, this is my favorite bet Sunday.
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New Orleans Pelicans (+8.5) at Oklahoma City Thunder, 9:30 p.m. ET
This feels like a square bet, but the Thunder have no playoff experience and are too small for the Pelicans. Oklahoma City has the 2nd-worst defensive rebounding rate in the NBA and ranks 28th in 2nd-chance PPG allowed.
Additionally, New Orleans C Jonas Valančiūnas has 70 pounds on OKC big Chet Holmgren. Valančiūnas averaged 13.0 PPG on 53.8% shooting in three meetings with the Thunder this season. He should get more touches Sunday given his size advantage and Pelicans PF Zion Williamson's absence.
Speaking of which, no one thinks NOLA can beat Oklahoma City without Zion. But, he and New Orleans wing Brandon Ingram are both 1-on-1 players, who can get their shot vs. any defender in the NBA. But, there's a chance the Pelicans will move the ball better with only one of them on the floor.
Oklahoma City Thunder PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shoots over New Orleans Pelicans SF Trey Murphy III at Smoothie King Center in Louisiana. (Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports)
Moreover, I love how NOLA's perimeter defense matches up with OKC. Pelicans forwards Herb Jones and Trey Murphy III are long and athletic, and can take turns defending Thunder All-Star PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. That length is why SGA scored just 25.0 PPG vs. New Orleans during the regular season, down from his 30.1 PPG season-long average.
Ultimately, the Pelicans +8.5 (down to +7) is too good to pass up because they play up to their competition. New Orleans is 13-8 SU and 14-6-1 ATS with a +5.3 spread differential as road underdogs this season.
Bet 1.15u on the Pelicans +8.5 (-115) at DraftKings. I'd take New Orleans down to +7.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my NBA 2023-24 betting record via X all season.