NBA Playoffs 2024 Best Bets: Pacers Vs Knicks, Timberwolves Vs Nuggets Game 7s
At this point, I need a miracle to break even this season betting on the NBA. I started off the 2024 NBA Playoffs on fire and have cooled off over the last week or so. If things turn around, I'll up my wagers to 1.5-unit (u) or higher bets. Regardless, you know I'm going to see this thing through. I've proven I'm a basketball betting degenerate with 467 bets on sides, totals, and player props this NBA season.
NBA Playoffs 2024 Betting Card: Sunday, May 19th
The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.
UNDER 208.5 in Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks, 3:30 p.m. ET
Marc Davis is the crew chief for Pacers-Knicks Game 7, and he's been "letting them play" this postseason. During the regular season, games officiated by Davis averaged 225.9 points per game (PPG). In the 2024 NBA Playoffs, teams combined to score 199.4 points in the nine games Davis was the crew chief, per NBAStuffer.com. Davis's PPG is the lowest among NBA refs who have been a crew chief in 4+ games this postseason.
Granted, Davis was part of the Pacers-Knicks Game 2 crew. New York won that game 130-121, soaring Over the 218 total. Games slow down and intensify as playoff series wind down, which is accounted for in the 208.5 Game 7 total. However, the public is still going to bet the Over. Fading the market is more viable in the postseason since casual sports fans don't bet regular-season games in the NBA.
New York Knicks PG Jalen Brunson protects the ball from Indiana Pacers SG Andrew Nembhard during Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals in the 2024 NBA Playoffs at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indiana. (Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports)
Also, the Knicks want to, and need to, turn Game 7 into a slug-match. The Pacers are at full strength and are a fast-paced team. New York ran the slowest pace during the regular season and is banged up significantly. Knicks PF Julius Randle, C Mitchell Robinson, and sharpshooting SF Bojan Bogdanovic are out for the season. New York forwards Josh Hart and OG Anunoby are "questionable" for Game 7.
With that in mind, NYK's offensive strategy is straightforward: Play through All-Star PG Jalen Brunson. He is leading the 2024 NBA Playoffs in PPG and usage rate. Unless OG miraculously plays, Brunson is the only NYK that can create his shot. And while role players typically shoot better at home. The Knicks allow 5.8 fewer PPG at home and score 3.2 more PPG on the road.
The Knicks can control the pace because they are winning the "battle of possessions" in this series. New York is out-rebounding Indiana and turning the ball over at a lower rate. The Pacers beat the Knicks on the glass in Game 6 and, regardless of Hart's readiness, NYK will beat Indy on the glass in the series finale. If both teams don't get hot from three, this Game 7 will be a lower-scoring affair.
BET 1.08u on the UNDER 208.5 in Pacers-Knicks Game 7 (-108) at FanDuel. The UNDER is playable down to 207.
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Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets, 8 p.m. ET
Quietly, the "Timberwolves to win the Western Conference" at +600 was the only future bet I placed for the 2024 NBA Playoffs. So, I'm more or less going with my pre-series prediction. The Nuggets aren't getting enough from PG Jamal Murray and SF Michael Porter Jr., who are averaging 15.7 PPG and 11.3 PPG in this series.
They are struggling with the T-Wolves' elite defensive backcourt, Anthony Edwards and SF Jaden McDaniels. They can extend Minnesota's defense 60+ feet from the basket because Timberwolves C, and 2023-24 NBA Defensive Player of the Year, Rudy Gobert is protecting the rim behind them. I'm sure Nikola Jokic will go nuclear in Game 7.
Timberwolves SF Anthony Edwards dunks in Game 6 vs. the Denver Nuggets during the 2024 NBA Playoffs at Target Center in Minnesota. (Jordan Johnson/NBAE via Getty Images)
Yet, that might not be enough. Ant-Man has been the best player in this series, and that's usually the difference-maker in the playoffs. He is scoring more PPG than Jokic with a higher true shooting rate, which accounts for 2-, 3-, and free-throw shooting. Plus, Edwards is an excellent two-way player and Jokic is an average defender.
The T-Wolves at least have three bigs to throw at Jokic: Gobert, PF Karl-Anthony Towns, and PF Naz Reid. Denver doesn't have anyone who can defend Edwards. Lastly, even though the first six games in this series have been blowouts, I don't trust the Nuggets to cover the spread Sunday. Minnesota is out-performing Denver in all the "four factors".
BET 1.1u on Minnesota +5 (-110) at DraftKings. The Timberwolves are bet-able down to +4.
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