NBA Playoffs 2024 Best Bets For All Three Game 3's Thursday

I didn't write a 2024 NBA Playoffs article Wednesday because I wanted to focus on ways to lose money in the 2024 NFL Draft. Yet, I gave out my plays for the Heat-Celtics and Pelicans-Thunder Game 2's on X/Twitter Wednesday. I bet both underdogs but sprinkled on the moneyline for the wrong one (New Orleans). Miami beat Boston outright 111-101 while Oklahoma City smacked NOLA 124-92. 

Whatever. I'm more interested in Thursday's NBA postseason games anyhow. Even though it's draft day, the Knicks-76ers and Nuggets-Lakers series should get your attention. Those four teams played in one of the most exciting NBA doubleheaders in recent memory. Ideally, Thursday's action will be awesome as well. But, more importantly, I'm hoping to win money. 

NBA Playoffs 2024 Betting Card: Thursday, April 25th 

The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.

Cleveland Cavaliers (+2.5) at Orlando Magic, 7 p.m. ET

Cleveland took a 2-0 series with a 96-86 win at -5.5 home favorites vs. Orlando Monday. Cavaliers All-Star SG Donovan Mitchell is averaging a series-high 26.5 points per game (PPG). Magic All-Star PF Paolo Banchero leads the team with 22.5 PPG in this series. I foolishly talked myself into taking the points with the Magic for Game 2, but I’m not making that mistake again. 

The bottom line is Orlando doesn’t have enough shooting to exploit Cleveland’s weak backcourt defenders or a point guard to get easy looks. Cavs C Jarrett Allen and PF Evan Mobley have been monsters in this series. Allen is scoring 16.0 PPG and grabbing 19.0 boards. He and Mobley are blocking 3.5 shots per game. During the regular season, most of the Magic’s shots were around the rim and they averaged the fewest made threes per game. 

Cleveland Cavaliers big Evan Mobley tries to block Orlando Magic PG Paolo Banchero during Game 1 of the 2024 Eastern Conference First Round Playoffs at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse in Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)

Orlando is shooting an atrocious 23.6% from behind the arc through the 1st two games of this series. That’s not going to cut it. The Magic aren’t much better from three at home either. They average 35.4% from deep at home this season, which would be tied for 22nd in the NBA.

Playoff games have fewer possessions, so more half-court basketball is played. Orlando’s lack of a real point guard makes it harder to execute in half-court sets. The Magic need Banchero to play like prime LeBron James to overcome not having a point guard. Paolo will probably never be that good, but he certainly won’t Thursday for Game 3. 

Finally, my biggest concern is the Cavaliers will be a popular public bet. However, as of 9:30 a.m. ET Thursday, Pregame.com is reporting that more action is on the Magic to win Game 2. 

Bet 1.1u on the Cavaliers +2.5 (-110) at FanDuel. Give me Cleveland through zero and up to -2. 

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OVER 201.5 in New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers, 7:30 p.m. ET

The Knicks beat the Sixers 104-101 Monday in one of the most thrilling basketball games at Madison Square Garden ever. New York rallied back from a 5-point deficit in the final 30 seconds of regulation with threes from guards Jalen Brunson and Donte DiVincenzo to stun Philadelphia. 

NYK has a 2-0 lead despite Brunson struggling and a hobbled 76ers All-Star Joel Embiid and All-Star SG Tyrese Maxey averaging a combined 65.5 PPG. The Knicks have six guys averaging double figures. Their best player in this series has been New York forward Josh Hart, who is averaging 21.5 PPG and 14.0 rebounds. 

Hart and his teammates crash the glass relentlessly. The Sixers were 25th in defensive rebounding rate in the regular season and the Knicks were 2nd in second-chance PPG. New York is out-scoring Philadelphia 19.0-9.5 in second-chance PPG in this series. Unfortunately for Philly, Embiid and Maxey aren’t getting much help. 

Watch: Mike Breen, Kevin Harlan Deliver With Unreal Final Calls In NBA Playoffs

Overpaid Sixers forward Tobias Harris is adding just 8.5 PPG on 38.9% shooting. PG Kyle Lowry is Philadelphia’s 3rd-best scorer so far in this series. However, I think this changes for Game 3 because role players typically perform better at home. With that in mind, I’m expecting 76ers forward Kelly Oubre Jr., SG Buddy Hield, and Harris to shoot better in Philly. 

New York Knicks PG Jalen Brunson vs. the Philadelphia 76ers in Game 2 of the 1st round for the 2024 NBA Playoffs at Madison Square Garden. (Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports)

The Knicks shoot better from the field (47.2-45.9%) and 3-point land (37.3-36.5%) on the road. New York forward OG Anunoby and Brunson are the only Knicks shooting worse than 41.7% from behind the arc in this series. 

During the regular season, Brunson hit 40.1% of his 3-balls and Anunoby was 39.4% from deep after getting traded to New York. Meaning, if OG and Brunson have better shooting nights in Game 3, the Knicks should do their part in cashing the Over. 

These teams can help the total go Over in Game 3 by getting to the foul line. Embiid lives at the charity stripe and the 76ers are 3rd in offensive FT/FGA rate. That said, Philly is 26th in defensive FT/FGA rate. So, between New York’s aggressiveness and Brunson’s craftiness, the Knicks could also get a bunch of freebies Thursday. 

Bet 1.1u on the OVER 201.5 in Knicks-76ers (-110) at DraftKings. The OVER is playable up to 204. 

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Denver Nuggets (-106) at Los Angeles Lakers, 10 p.m. ET

The Lakers squandered their 2nd consecutive double-digit lead in a 101-99 Game 2 loss in Denver Tuesday thanks to a game-winning buzzer-beater by Nuggets PG Jamal Murray. 

Los Angeles lost despite sensational performances by Anthony Davis and LeBron James. AD scored a game-high 32 points on 14-of-19 shooting and grabbed 11 rebounds. LeBron chipped in 26 points, 8 rebounds, and 12 assists. But, for a 10th straight meeting, Nikola Jokić out-dueled them. 

Jokić messed around and put up a 27-20-10 triple-double in Game 2, which are mind-boggling stats. The interesting part of Jokic’s 27-point game is he only took 16 shots. I’ve always said that Jokić has another gear and that supports my theory. The Joker is almost a lock to score at least 35 points if he attempts 20+ shots. Regardless, if Jokic needs to score, he can. 

Los Angeles Lakers PF Anthony Davis fouls Denver Nuggets C Nikola Jokic during Game 2 during the 2024 NBA playoffs at Ball Arena in Colorado. (Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports)

Adding to that, the Nuggets had the best net rating in the NBA during the regular season. Most of their wins in the last 10 meetings with the Lakers have been close games. Since Los Angeles cannot pull away from Denver, Murray and Jokić will be able to steal Game 3 down the stretch like they did with Game 2. 

Lastly, the Nuggets are 2-0 despite shooting worse and getting to the foul line because they are winning the "battle for possessions". They have half the turnovers of the Lakers (26-13) and more than twice the offensive rebounds (24-10). Because of this, Denver has 33 more field goal attempts (190-157) in this series. Simply put, LA isn’t good enough offensively to overcome that shot disparity.

Bet 1.06u on Denver's moneyline (-106) at FanDuel. I’d play the Nuggets through zero and up to -2 in Game 3.  

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my NBA 2023-24 betting record via X all season.