NBA Playoffs 2024 Sunday: T-Wolves Will Finish Off Suns Plus 3 More Best Bets

Honestly, I'm lucky to go 2-2 in Saturday's 2024 NBA Playoffs picks. The UNDER 202 in Cavaliers-Magic barely cashed as Orlando blasted Cleveland 112-89. My next two picks got embarrassed when the Oklahoma City Thunder tore apart the New Orleans Pelicans 106-85 and the Boston Celtics boat-raced the Miami Heat 104-84. 

But, I basically broke even when the Nuggets-Lakers soared OVER 218 in Los Angeles's 119-108 Game 4 win vs. Denver. Hopefully, Sunday action is more exciting. Although I don't have confidence in the nighttime NBA playoff games. Regardless, the most important thing is making money and I wouldn't hate calling it an early night anyway. 

NBA Playoffs 2024 Betting Card For Sunday 

The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.

UNDER 209 in New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers, 1 p.m. ET

Philadelphia beat New York 125-114 Thursday in Game 3. They went way Over the 205 closing total because there were a combined 51 free throws. The Sixers attempted 33 of them and the Knicks took the other 18. New York All-Star PG Jalen Brunson went 10-for-12 from the charity stripe. Philly big Joel Embiid made more freebies (19-for-21) than NYK attempted. 

When betting the NBA playoffs, it’s smart to fade the previous game’s result. It’s easy to fade Game 3 considering all the free throws. The referees will "swallow their whistles" more in Game 4. They won’t fall for Embiid’s and Brunson’s "foul baiting" again Sunday. 

Sixers C Joel Embiid is "fouled" by New York Knicks SG Donte DiVincenzo in Game 3 of the 1st round for the 2024 NBA playoffs at Wells Fargo Center in Phildelphia. (Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports)

Also, this is the 2nd-slowest pace (90.5) of any 1st-round series in these playoffs. New York’s Tom Thibodeau and Philadelphia’s Nick Nurse are "defensive coaches". Five of the seven Knicks-76ers meeting this postseason and the regular season have gone Under the total. 

BET 1.1u on UNDER 209 in Knicks-76ers (-110) at FanDuel. The UNDER is good down to 207. 

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Los Angeles Clippers (+6) at Dallas Mavericks, 3:30 p.m. ET

Clippers All-Star Kawhi Leonard "left a breadcrumb" about his Game 4 availability. He told the media his knee "just didn't respond the way we wanted" after Los Angeles’s 101-90 Game 3 loss. Kawhi scored only 9 points in 25 minutes and looked less than 100%. But his comments leave the door open for Leonard to miss Game 4. 

Los Angeles SF Paul George and backup PG Russell Westbrook stunk it up Friday as well. PG scored 7 points on 3-of-11 shooting and Westbrook got ejected from the game with 1 point. If there were any Clippers fans they’d be embarrassed about their team’s performance in Game 3. 

LAC crushed Dallas 109-97 in Game 1 without Kawhi. The Clippers would be better off if Leonard sat Sunday. It doesn’t do the Clippers any good if Kawhi is still injured. Los Angeles has enough offense without Leonard between Westbrook, George, former NBA MVP James Harden, and scoring 6-man Norman Powell. 

LA Clippers' James Harden passes the ball around Dallas Mavericks PF P.J. Washington during Game 3 in the 1st round of the 2024 NBA playoffs at the American Airlines Center in Dallas. (Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports)

Furthermore, Harden is balling in this series. He is averaging a team-high 23.7 points on 68.4% true shooting (.477/.448/.889) with a +23 net rating and 7.0 assists to just 2.3 turnovers per game. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving cannot defend Harden or PG. If Kawhi sits, Harden and PG don’t have to worry about getting him the ball and can cook Luka and Kyrie. 

Plus, maybe that’ll force the Clippers to get C Ivica Zubac involved again. Zubac is Los Angeles’s 2nd-best player in this series. He scored 20 points on 10-of-17 shooting and grabbed 15 rebounds in Game 1, LAC’s only win this series. 

Ultimately, the Mavericks aren’t six points better than the Clippers, even at home. All three games in this series have been blowouts. That said, these teams are splitting the "four factors" and the average scores of these games have Dallas beating Los Angeles 98.0-97.3.

BET 1.08u on Clippers +6 (-108) at DraftKings. Give me the Clippers down to +5. 

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UNDER 217.5 in Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers, 7 p.m. ET

Bucks All-Stars Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard are "doubtful" to, aka "not going to", play Game 4. However, Doc Rivers’ teams show up when their best players are missing. It’s weird but it’s "a thing". Trust me. I’ve lost enough money betting against Doc-coached teams without their best players to speak on this. 

With this in mind, I’m not betting a side in Bucks-Pacers Game 4. I like Indy’s offense but I cannot trust the defense. And despite what I said about Doc before, I wouldn’t be shocked if Indiana destroyed Milwaukee Sunday. So, instead, I’m betting the UNDER 217 (-110) in Game 4. 

Bucks PG Patrick Beverley will get a lot of playing time Sunday. You could say "too much". That’s where they are at. But, the series returns to Milwaukee for Game 5 and the Bucks can even this series. They will "D up" to compensate for missing Giannis and Dame. Beverley, to his credit, is still a good on-ball defender. He will compete and try to lock up Pacers All-Star PG Tyrese Haliburton. Whether Beverley can or not, we’ll see. 

Pacers PG Tyrese Haliburton dribbles the ball while Milwaukee Bucks PG Patrick Beverley defends him in the 2024 NBA playoffs at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indiana. (Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports)

Moreover, one-sided games are where Overs go to die. The winning team slows the pace down and kills the clock. Since the market says the Pacers win by double digits (-9.5), we could see that Sunday. Indiana had a 12-point lead at halftime before Milwaukee’s defense tightened up in the 2nd half. Or the Pacers went cold. They shot 3-for-19 from behind the arc. If either happens in Game 4, the UNDER looks good. 

Finally, Bucks SF Khris Middleton put up 42 points in Game 3 and I’m betting he plays worse Sunday. His only help is Milwaukee C Brook Lopez and PF Bobby Portis. Yet, Pacers forwards Pascal Siakam and Aaron Nesmith and C Myles Turner are good defenders. These guys can hold up defensively against Middleton, Lopez, and Portis. 

BET 1.15u on UNDER 217.5 in Bucks-Pacers (-115) at BetMGM. I’d bet the UNDER down to 215.5. 

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Minnesota Timberwolves (-118) at Phoenix Suns, 9:30 p.m. ET

Some people don’t think the T-Wolves can sweep the Suns. I’m not one of those people. Minnesota is beating Phoenix in all "four factors" in this series. The Timberwolves are waxing the Suns 117.0-99.0 on average. They are clearly the better team. I’ve bet on T-Wolves every game in this series, so I’m playing with "house money". 

More importantly, Phoenix All-Star Kevin Durant is old and overrated. There has never been a championship team built around KD. He bailed on the Oklahoma City Thunder and won his two titles by joining a stacked Golden State Warriors team. Durant and Kyrie Irving had a disappointing run together as teammates on the Brooklyn Nets. Now, KD’s Suns are looking at a 1st-round sweep. 

Minnesota All-Star Anthony Edwards is one of the best young players in the NBA. Edwards is an elite scorer and on-ball defender. Ant-Man scored a game-high 36 points in Game 3. He’s scored 30 or more points in seven of his 14 career postseason games. The T-Wolves learned in the regular season that the Suns could only win by hitting mad threes. 

In response, Edwards and Minnesota wing Jaden McDaniels apply constant pressure on Suns guards Devin Booker and Bradley Beal so they cannot chuck threes. Edwards and McDaniels can play aggressive defense because they have the best rim-protecting big in the NBA behind them, C Rudy Gobert. 

Even if the Timberwolves struggle offensively, they can win with defense. The Suns cannot; KD, Booker, and Beal are all mediocre, at best, defenders. This is what I’ve been saying the whole time. Since they haven’t won anything, the T-Wolves will close this series out in Phoenix Sunday. 

BET 1.18u on Minnesota’s moneyline (-118) at FanDuel. The Timberwolves are playable up to -3.

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