NBA Playoffs 2024 Monday Picks: Celtics-Heat, Thunder-Pelicans, Nuggets-Lakers

Don't mind me. I'll be over here winning money in the 2024 NBA Playoffs while the rest of you trash the Association. Through the 1st half of Round 1, I'm 23-17 and +8.66 units (u) in the postseason. I went 3-1 Sunday after hitting a 1.5u bet on the Los Angeles Clippers' spread in their 116-111 upset win over the Dallas Mavs and a 2u bet on the Minnesota Timberwolves' moneyline in their series-clinching victory at the Phoenix Suns. 

You can tell by my NBA 2023-24 betting record, there is still work to do. Yet, I was 27+ units in the hole at one point in this NBA season and I'm GRINDING like hell to break even or even profit. With that in mind, I'm taking a stance in all three NBA playoff games Monday. Don't worry, I'm not chasing. I'm a high-volume NBA bettor and I've spent hours looking at these matchups. But, as Dave Chappelle once said, "I'm like Evil Knievel: I get paid for the attempt. I didn't promise this s*** would be good". 

Best Bets for Monday, April 29th in the 2024 NBA Playoffs 

The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.

OVER 203.5 in Boston Celtics at Miami Heat, 7:30 p.m. ET 

Celtics-Heat Game 3 went Under the 206-point total by 16 points when Boston beat Miami 104-84. I will fade that result and take the OVER 204 (up to 206.5) for various reasons. First, Boston could’ve scored 115+ points Saturday. But, the Celtics took their foot off the gas because they had a 24-point lead at halftime. 

Second, if I trust any team to bounce back from an ugly offensive game, it’s the Heat. They’ve been here and done that. Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra will encourage his players to keep taking open shots. The Heat have several good 3-point shooters, such as SGs Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson, and forwards Nikola Jovic and Haywood Highsmith. 

Miami Heat SG Tyler Herro drives to the basket on Boston Celtics SF Jayson Tatum during Game 3 of the 1st round for the 2024 NBA playoffs at Kaseya Center in Florida. (Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports)

Also, neither shot well in Game 3. Boston shot 11-for-37 from behind the arc (29.7%) and Miami was 9-for-28 (32.1%). The Celtics shot 38.8% from deep during the regular season. Finally, Boston hit 3.4 fewer threes than expectation Saturday. The Heat made a playoff-franchise-record 23 threes in their Game 2 win. I.e. Miami was due for regression Saturday and Boston is due for progression Monday. 

BET 1.08u on OVER 203.5 in Celtics-Heat (-108) Game 4 at DraftKings. The OVER is playable up to 205. 

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Oklahoma City Thunder (-5) at New Orleans Pelicans, 8:30 p.m. ET

New Orleans is cooked. For whatever reason, I have a soft spot in my heart for the Pelicans and bet them to cover in Games 1-3. They covered as +8.5 road underdogs in a 94-92 series-opening loss in OKC. Then NOLA got smacked in the last two games. It was dumb for me to back the Pelicans. I like their forwards, Brandon Ingram, Herb Jones, Trey Murphy III, and Zion Williamson. 

However, that made me overlook the same issue that caused me to fade the Phoenix Suns vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves in Round 1: New Orleans doesn’t have a legitimate point guard. Pelicans combo guard C.J. McCollum is technically their starting point guard but McCollum is an iso-scorer not floor general. Zion is hurt. Ingram, Jones, and Murphy can't run an offense. 

Oklahoma City Thunder forward Jalen Williams goes to the rack on the Pelicans in Game 3 of Round 1 in the 2024 NBA playoffs at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans. (Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports)

Furthermore, Oklahoma City is the worst team to face if you don’t have someone to protect and distribute the ball. The Thunder have three guys they can trust to run the offense, including 2023-24 NBA MVP finalist Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and forwards Josh Giddey and Jaylen Williams. 

OKC is 7th in offensive turnover rate (TOV%), 2nd in defensive TOV%, and averaged 3.0 fewer turnovers per game than its opponents in the regular season. The Thunder have 14 fewer turnovers than the Pelicans in this series (51-37), which is a 4.7 per-game differential. 

Lastly, New Orleans doesn’t have enough outside shooting to keep up with Oklahoma City. McCollum shot his a** off during the regular season but is only shooting 22.7% on threes in this series. Pelicans backup PG Jose Alvarado is 1-for-11 from three, Jones is 33.3%, and Ingram has only taken five 3-pointers. The Thunder have four rotation guys shooting at least 41.7% from behind the arc in this series. 

BET 1.08u on Oklahoma City -5 (-108) at DraftKings. Give me OKC up to -5.5. 

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UNDER 217 in Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets, 10 p.m. ET

One of my best bets in the NBA Saturday was the Over 218 in Nuggets-Lakers in Game 4 in Los Angeles. It cashed when the Lakers won 119-108 Saturday. Well, I’m fading the recent Over in this series Monday. I’m applying similar logic to my UNDER 218 bet in Lakers-Nuggets Game 5 as I did for Celtics-Heat above. 

Denver PG Jamal Murray strained his calf in Game 4 and he is "questionable" for Monday. Murray is averaging 21.5 points and 7.3 assists per game in this series.  Besides the 2023-24 NBA MVP favorite, Nikola Jokic, Murray is the only Nugget who can create his own shot. Anthony Davis is the best possible defender in the NBA for Jokic. 

Los Angeles Lakers big Anthony Davis wrestles with Denver Nuggets C Nikola Jokic in the 2024 NBA playoffs at Ball Arena in Colorado. IRon Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports)

Their offensive efficiency falls off a cliff when backup PG Reggie Jackson replaces Murray. According to CleaningTheGlass.com, Denver scores 6.8 fewer points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time when Murray is off the floor. The Nuggets could struggle offensively if Murray misses Game 5. 

Aside from LeBron James and AD, the Lakers don’t have anyone they can count on to score. If Los Angeles PG D’Angelo Russell isn’t hitting tough shots, he’s useless. Lakers combo guard Austin Reaves has gone missing frequently in this series. In last year’s title run, Denver was 1-4 Over/Under (O/U) in "clinch games" with a -6.0 O/U margin. The average final score in these games was 110.4-104.6 in favor of the Nuggets. 

BET 1.12u on UNDER 217 in Lakers-Nuggets (-112) in Game 5 at FanDuel. I’d bet the UNDER down to 215. 

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