NBA Player Props for FOOTBALL Sunday, November 20
The NBA is in mid-season form already with this trash slate. It's a bunch of double-digit spreads and matchups with players missing. The NFL comp to this NBA's Sunday card would be if 24 of the 32 teams played backup QBs.
Nikola Jokic is one of the few people in American sports with COVID, Chris Paul's foot hurts and most of the Miami Heat's starting 5 will miss Sunday. Hey, we get Kyrie Irving back from suspension for anti-semitism for Grizzlies-Nets. But, Ja Morant sprained his ankle and he's out.
The only possible way to spice up these NBA games, which I probably won't watch, is by betting player props. Below, I'll go through a couple of NBA player props that hopefully we can profit on. Otherwise, the NBA can f*** off.
NBA Player Prop #1: Charlotte Hornets PG Terry Rozier OVER 20.5 points (-130)
The Washington Wizards host the Hornets sans PG LaMelo Ball (one of eight NBA All-Stars calling in sick Sunday) at 6 p.m. ET. In this case, Ball's absence is the reason we are playing the Over for Rozier's points prop.
Rozier has scored 22 or more points in six of his 10 games this season. Two of the Unders were when Ball returned to the lineup for three games from November 12-16.
Charlotte Hornets combo guard Terry Rozier shoots a basket against the Miami Heat during the fourth quarter at FTX Arena. (Lauren Sopourn/Getty Images)
Furthermore, Ball's PG replacement -- Dennis Smith Jr. -- is "questionable" to play with an ankle injury. I.e. Rozier is going to have the ball in his hands a lot.
Last season, Rozier averaged 25.3 points per game (PPG) in four meetings with the Wizards on a 67.2% true shooting rate (.534/.528/.800). Rozier scored at least 25 points in three of those four games.
BET: Hornets SG T. Rozier OVER 20.5 points (-120) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Prop #2: Golden State Warriors SG Jordan Poole OVER 15.5 points (-120)
The Warriors are one of the few teams in the NBA that's actually playing all their players when they visit the Houston Rockets for a 7 p.m. ET tip-off.
Let's buy the dip on Poole who's scored a combined 15 points in his past two games on 5-of-22 shooting. This should be a get-right game for Poole since Houston has the fourth-worst defensive rating in the league.
Golden State Warriors SG Jordan Poole brings the ball upcourt against the Memphis Grizzlies during the Western Conference Semifinals at FedExForum in Memphis, Tennessee. (Justin Ford/Getty Images)
Poole is averaging 15.9 PPG and has scored 17 or more points in eight of his 16 games this year. He scored 20 or more in two of his three games vs. the Rockets last season.
Also, professional athletes are creatures of habit and Poole plays well on Sundays. Poole's 16.1 PPG on Sundays is his best of any day in the week and his 57.7% true shooting rate is the second-best.
BET: Warriors SG J. Poole OVER 15.5 points (-120) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Prop #3: Dallas Mavericks big Christian Wood OVER 1.5 made 3-pointers (+125)
The Mavericks host the Denver Nuggets for the second of their back-to-back. Dallas crushed a Jokic- and Jamal Murray-less Denver squad 127-99.
Mavs All-Star Luka Doncic lit the Nuggets up and so did Wood, one of the best bench players in the NBA. Wood scored 28 points on 11-of-16 shooting and hit 2-of-4 from 3-point land. In fact, Wood has sunk two 3-pointers in three straight games.
Dallas Mavericks big Christian Wood to a 3-point shot against the Phoenix Suns at Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona. (Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
The Nuggets might have to use more resources to protect the paint with Jokic out of the lineup. Wood is a floor-spacing big who attempts nearly 60% of his shots from behind the arc, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Denver has the third-worst defensive rating and defensive effective field goal shooting in the NBA. The Nuggets' defense allows 15.0 more points per 100 possessions when Jokic is off the floor, per CTG.