NBA Opening Night 'Locks': Lakers-Nuggets, Suns-Warriors
Tuesday is opening night in the NBA and the fans are already getting treated to injury or load management. The reigning champion Denver Nuggets host the Los Angeles Lakers in the first of an NBA on TNT doubleheader. It's followed by the Phoenix Suns at the Golden State Warriors.
All the big names in the Lakers-Nuggets are projected to play. However, Draymond Green is out for opening night as is new Suns SG Bradley Beal. Phoenix could also be without All-Star Devin Booker who is "50/50" to play Tuesday.
Ahhhh, the NBA is back and I love this game.
Before the injury updates to Beal and Booker, Suns-Warriors was priced at a pick 'em. As of 11:30 a.m. ET Tuesday morning, Golden State is -3 at PointsBet with a -160 moneyline (ML). On the OutKick Bets Podcast earlier this week, I gave out the Warriors ML.
NBA 2023-24 Opening Night
Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets
Odds for the Lakers-Nuggets game on Tuesday, October 24th from PointsBet.
If I had to pick a side in this game, I'd lay the points with Denver. This is "Ring Night and Banner Raising Ceremony" for the Nuggets. There is a perception that Nikola Jokic doesn't care about basketball but I think he's going to rip the Lakers' faces off Tuesday.
Last season, Denver was 6-2 straight up (SU) vs. LA and 3-4-1 against the spread (ATS), which includes the conference finals. The Nuggets beat the Lakers in all four meetings in Denver by an average score of 118.0-109.2.
That said, I betting a player prop in this game. Specifically, I'm betting Denver SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (KCP) to go OVER 10.5 POINTS (-105) at PointsBet. Including the postseason, KCP scored at least 13 points in five of eight games vs. the Lakers.
Denver Nuggets SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope bangs a 3-pointer vs. the Los Angeles Lakers in the 2023 NBA Western Conference Finals at Ball Arena in Denver. (Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports)
In the 2023 Western Conference Finals, Caldwell-Pope averaged 14.8 points per game on a team-high 62.2% effective field goal shooting. KCP had a better 3-point percentage and offensive rating at home last season and his best 3-point shooting month was October.
Finally, out of Denver's entire starting 5, Caldwell-Pope will get the least attention. The Lakers will be preoccupied with Jokic and Nuggets PG Jamal Murray. KCP is going to get mad wide-open 3-point looks Tuesday.
For record-keeping purposes ...
Bet 1.05 units (u) on Denver Nuggets SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to score more than 10.5 points (-105) vs. the Los Angeles Lakers
Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors
Odds for the Suns-Warriors on NBA opening night Tuesday, October 24th courtesy of PointsBet.
I'm holding a ticket for the Warriors -1 (-110) for a bet made earlier this week. But, I'm still willing to risk 1u on Golden State's -160 ML. To be clear, I'm risking 1u instead of betting to win 1u.
Since 2021, the Warriors have the best record at home in the NBA including the playoffs. The 79-21 SU and 62-35-3 ATS in those games with a +9.2 SU margin. Chris Paul is going to replace Draymond in the starting 5.
With that in mind, a revenge game is my favorite betting angle in basketball. One player can decide a basketball game more than any other sport. CP3 is an all-time great and he's going to be out for revenge against a Phoenix team he was cast off from.
Golden State Warriors PG Chris Paul dribbles the ball up court against the San Antonio Spurs at Chase Center in San Francisco. (Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
The Warriors are the perfect team for Paul to point guard. They are surrounding CP3 with the two greatest 3-point shooters ever: Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. Plus, the Suns don't have any defensive standouts.
Paul can pick apart Phoenix with pick-and-roll action. I'm not sure who plays perimeter defense or closes out on 3-point shooters for the Suns. Meaning, the Dubs are going to have a bunch of wide-open looks.