'NBA On TNT' Thursday Doubleheader Best Bets: 76ers-Bucks, Suns-Lakers
If Shaquille O'Neal and Charles Barkley pulled the same "load management" BS as the superstars, the NBA wouldn't even have a product. Hopefully, the NBA On TNT primetime doubleheader Thursday is more entertaining than the pre and postgame shows. I doubt it though.
Regardless, I'm a hoops betting degenerate and I'm not going to only bet on the NFL's Thursday Night Football game. The two NBA games Thursday include the Milwaukee Bucks hosting the Philadelphia 76ers and Phoenix Suns visiting the Los Angeles Lakers.
Lakers' LeBron James and Anthony Davis wait on defense against the Nuggets at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. (Aaron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)
On paper, these are interesting matchups. But, when you look at the injury report, aka absence list, they are less exciting. James Harden is still AWOL and Phoenix will most likely be without Devin Booker and Bradley Beal.
Through the first two nights of NBA action, my betting record is 3-2 and I'm +0.9 units (u). After splitting Tuesday's two games, I rallied back for a 2-1 effort last night. Let's see if I can go back-to-back nights winning with ...
NBA 'Locks' for Thursday
Milwaukee Bucks C Brook Lopez OVER 1.5 made 3-pointers (+145)
The 7-footer has low-key been a 3-point shooter for years now. Lopez has averaged more than two made 3-pointers in six of the past seven seasons. Since joining the Bucks in 2018, Lopez has made at least two 3s in 10 of his 14 games vs. the Sixers.
Furthermore, it makes basketball-sense for Lopez to hang around the 3-point line. By doing so, Lopez is pulling Philadelphia big Joel Embiid out of the paint and open up driving lanes for Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Milwaukee Bucks C Brook Lopez reacts after banging a 3-pointer vs. the Kings at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California. (Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
Last season, Milwaukee had the third-highest wide-open 3-point attempt rate in the NBA. "Wide-open" is defined by 3-point shooters that have at least six feet worth of distance between them and the nearest defender.
Giannis collapsing opposing defenses with his paint presence is what contributes to all the wide-open 3-point looks for the Bucks. For the record, I'm only hitting Lopez's OVER 1.5 MADE 3-POINTERS prop for a 0.5u but it's my favorite play in the 76ers-Bucks matchup.
OVER 226.5 (-110) in Suns-Lakers
Typically, it's sharper to bet Unders instead of Overs, especially in primetime games. And this might be counterintuitive, however there is value on the OVER 226.5 (-110) because Beal and Booker will be out Thursday.
After they were officially announced "out," the Suns-Lakers total fell from a 229.5-point opener down to the current number. Sure, both Beal and Booker are elite scores. But, they are being replaced by bad defensive players in SGs Eric Gordon and Grayson Allen.
With that in mind, this could be a get-right game for LA's offense. Opening night at the Denver Nuggets, the Lakers got poor shooting nights from Anthony Davis, PG D'Angelo Russell, and SG Austin Reaves. AD flip-flopped between good and bad games most of last season.
Lakers guards D'Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves are pumped after a big sequence vs. the Grizzlies during the 2023 NBA playoffs at FedExForum in Memphis, Tennessee. (Justin Ford/Getty Images)
Moreover, we are fading recency bias and this fake sharp bet on the Over. Both the Lakers and Suns went Under the totals in their 1st games of the season. Phoenix's total Tuesday vs. the Golden State Warriors went Under by 23 points because the Warriors couldn't buy a bucket.
Finally, the idea of the Suns running their offense through all-time scorer Kevin Durant sounds good. KD is surrounded by shooters Thursday and Durant's gravitational pull is strong enough to get said shooters open looks.