NBA Monday Best Bets Include A Pick In Thunder-Lakers, 1 Prop, 1 Total

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Man, the NBA continues to be the bane of my betting existence. Don't get me wrong, I rallied this past weekend, finishing 10-8-1 last week, and profiting +1.07 units (u). However, it could've been more profitable if it weren't for bad luck. I bet Over 231.5 in Warriors-Celtics Sunday and the game stayed Under the total despite Boston scoring 140 points. 

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It's hard for an NBA game to go Under when a team drops 140. Especially when the other team has the best 3-point shooter in the history of the sport. Regardless, I'll happily take the winning week. It gives me something to build on as the NBA enters the busiest stretch of its season. For the record, I don't like much on this slate but I dug deep and found a few looks Monday. 

NBA Monday Betting Card

  • The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.

Utah Jazz PF John Collins OVER 16.5 points (-118) vs. Wizards at FanDuel 

Jazz All-Star PF Lauri Markkanen is out Monday so a bunch of shots will be freed up. Plus, Utah big Walker Kessler is out and the Jazz traded former C Kelly Olynyk to the Toronto Raptors at the trade deadline. Hence, Collins should get a lot of run Monday since Utah doesn’t have many bigs available. 

Collins has scored at least 18 points in four of his past six games. He scored 21 points on 11-of-15 shooting vs. the Wizards Jan. 25th. Collins’ offensive rating improves from 113 on the road to 122 in Salt Lake City. 

Utah Jazz PF John Collins drives to the basket on former Washington Wizards C Daniel Gafford at Capital One Arena. (Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports)

Utah Jazz PF John Collins drives to the basket on former Washington Wizards C Daniel Gafford at Capital One Arena. (Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports)

Lastly, Washington plays at the fastest pace in the NBA and Utah ranks 9th in pace. More possessions usually lead to more points. The Wizards offloaded former center Daniel Gafford at the trade deadline, so their interior defense is weaker. Washington allows the most PPG to opposing centers. 

Bet 0.59u on Jazz PF John Collins OVER 16.5 points (-118) to win 0.5u at FanDuel. I'd play Collins' Over up to -135. 

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OVER 227.5 in Chicago Bulls at Sacramento Kings, 10 p.m. ET

The Kings beat the Bulls 123-115 in Chicago in their 1st meeting this season last month. That game went Over the 228.5 total by 9.5 points. Bulls-Kings Part I had a 105.3 Pace and the average NBA pace is 99.0. Sacramento is 18-7-1 Over/Under (O/U) as home favorites with a +6.5 O/U margin. 

Also, these teams get buckets vs. unfamiliar foes. Bulls-Kings have a combined 29-11-1 O/U record against non-conference opponents. Chicago has a +9.6 O/U margin vs. the Western Conference and Sacramento is +6.9 O/U in their games against Eastern Conference teams.

Furthermore, the Bulls have allowed the most "wide-open" 3-pointers per game since the All-Star break. The Kings are 4th in 3-pointers made per game so they should be able to get their points Monday. 

Sacramento Kings wing Harrison Barnes goes to the basket on the Chicago Bulls at United Center. (Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports)

Sacramento Kings wing Harrison Barnes goes to the basket on the Chicago Bulls at United Center. (Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports)

However, Sacramento is 29th in defensive mid-range field goal percentage, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), and 28th in paint points per game (PPG) allowed in the 2nd half of the season. The Kings are a much easier squad to score on than Chicago’s recent opponents.

Sacramento is 21st in defensive rating. Four of the Bulls’ opponents post-All-Star break are the Bucks, Cavaliers, Pelicans, and Celtics. Milwaukee leads the NBA in defensive rating since the All-Star game and those other three teams rank 7th or better in defensive efficiency. 

Bet 1.1u on OVER 227.5 in Bulls-Kings (-110) at DraftKings. Give me the OVER up to 230. 

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Oklahoma City Thunder (-102) at Los Angeles Lakers, 10:30 p.m. ET

LeBron James is "questionable" for this game and I'm gambling on him not playing. Since the middle of January, LeBron has played four or five straight games before getting a rest day. James has played four consecutive games, logging at least 34 minutes per game. LeBron has a +7.0 on/off net rating, per CTG, and is the focal point of LA's offense. 

Either way, that's just a free roll because even if LeBron plays Monday OKC can still win this game. The Lakers are 2-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in their 1st three meetings with the Thunder. I.e. LeBron can rest comfortably knowing that Los Angeles beat Oklahoma City in the season series of games he played in. 

Oklahoma City Thunder All-Star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shoots a pull-up vs. the Los Angeles Lakers at Paycom Center. (Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports)

Oklahoma City Thunder All-Star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shoots a pull-up vs. the Los Angeles Lakers at Paycom Center. (Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports)

The Thunder won at the Phoenix Suns 118-110, covering as -4.5 road favorites Monday. OKC plays well with no rest. Oklahoma City is 7-3 SU and ATS on the 2nd of a back-to-back with a +18.7 scoring margin. The Thunder are 11-4 SU and 9-5-1 ATS when their opponent has a rest advantage. 

LAL's 3-3 SU since the All-Star break is misleading. The Lakers are just 1-5 ATS in that stretch. Two of their wins were against the lowly Wizards and San Antonio Spurs. Their 3rd win was that miraculous 21-point 4th-quarter comeback over the LA Clippers led by LeBron, which I'm still mad about since I bet the Clippers. Finally, LAL has a -4.2 net rating and a -6.0 spread differential since the All-Star game. 

Bet 1.02u on the Thunder's moneyline (-102) at FanDuel. I'd play Oklahoma City up to -1.5. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my NBA 2023-24 betting record via X all season.