NBA In-Season Tournament Semifinals Betting Preview: Pacers-Bucks, Pelicans-Lakers
The NBA In-Season Tournament heads to the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas for the semifinals Thursday and the championship game Friday. The two semifinals matchups pits young, up-and-coming rosters against veteran squads with titles.
My NBA In-Season Tournament betting performance in the knockout rounds has been herky-jerky. After hitting both quarterfinals games Monday, I went 1-2 the following night. Yet, normal regular-season NBA action returned Wednesday and I got back in the winner's circle.
NBA In-Season Tournament Semifinals Best Bets
Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks (-5), 5 p.m. ET tip-off
The Bucks closed as -4.5 favorites vs. the New York Knicks in the NBA In-Season Tournament quarterfinals and the Knicks are more than a half-point better than Indiana.
DunksAndThrees.com accounts for strength of schedule. NYK has the 7th-best net rating (+2.8) whereas the Pacers have a +0.5 net rating, ranking 18th at that website.
CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG) removes garbage-time from its stat tracking. Well, New York has a +4.5 adjusted net rating and Indiana is +2.1, according to CTG.
Bucks PF Giannis Antetokounmpo attacks the paint on New York Knicks PF Julius Randle during the NBA In-Season Tournament Quarterfinal at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
The market is overrating the Pacers in this spot. They just beat the highest power-rated team in the quarterfinals (Boston Celtics) and beat the Bucks 126-124 at home last month.
However, Indiana allows 136.3 points per game on the road and Milwaukee was missing All-Star PG Damian Lillard for the 1st Pacers-Bucks meeting this season.
Finally, the Bucks have a strength-on-weakness edge over the Pacers in drawing fouls. Milwaukee attempts nearly four more free throws per game than its opponents and Indiana has a -3.0 free-throw attempt margin per game.
My prediction: Bucks 131, Pacers 121
New Orleans Pelicans (+2.5) at Los Angeles Lakers, 9 p.m. ET tip-off
In a 7-game series, I'd make the Lakers favorites over the Pelicans because of LeBron James's ability to pick apart opponents. That said, in a tournament-style game, I prefer New Orleans's roster and style.
DunksAndThree.com says the Pelicans have a higher net rating. Plus, Basketball Reference does a "Simple Rating System" (SRS), which blends strength of schedule with scoring margin and NOLA has a higher SRS.
The Lakers beat the Phoenix Suns 106-103 Tuesday in the NBA In-Season Tournament quarterfinals by dominating the "battle of possessions." But, the Pelicans are a better rebounding and shooting team that commits fewer turnovers.
New Orleans Pelicans PF Zion Williamson is double-teamed by Lakers SF LeBron James and PF Anthony Davis at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. (Harry How/Getty Images)
Also, this spread is sketchy considering the recent Pelicans-Lakers history. LAL crushed New Orleans by 18 and 15 points in their previous two meetings last season. This was after the Lakers built most of the roster that'll play Thursday night.
Despite the Lakers having a better win-loss record and the Pelicans missing out on the playoffs last season, LAL is only -2 favorites?! The sportsbooks know the public will hammer the Lakers. It seems like oddsmakers are begging for more pro-LAL money.
Perhaps I'm reading too much into the line. Regardless, even if there's no sportsbook voodoo in the works, I'll go to the window with Pelicans All-Stars Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. Their supporting cast is much better than LeBron and Anthony Davis's.