NBA In-Season Tournament Knockout Stage Best Bets: Monday
Usually, the NFL's Monday Night Football takes precedent over all sports. But, not this Monday. The inaugural NBA In-Season Tournament knockout round begins Monday with two quarterfinal games in what's been a surprisingly entertaining event.
Unfortunately, one thing that hasn't been entertaining about this NBA season, at least for me, is my betting performance. After an 0-3 sweep Friday, I got off the mat so to speak Saturday and cashed three of my four bets in the Association.
NBA In-Season Tournament Best Bets
Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers (+6), 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off
Boston hammered Indiana 155-104 in their 1st meeting this season on November 1st. The Pacers were without leading scorer, assist man, and All-Star PG Tyrese Haliburton and the Celtics were healthy. But, you cannot argue Haliburton is worth 51 points.
Haliburton is "questionable" for Monday with an illness and missed Indiana's win over the Miami Heat Saturday with a knee injury. However, I'm betting (literally) Haliburton plays Monday since he cares about this NBA In-Season Tournament.
The In-Season Tournament is probably the first time that I'm really competing to win a championship on the NBA level. I've never made the playoffs or anything, so right here it gives me the chance to be able to do that, and that's exciting for me.
Pacers PG Tyrese Haliburton skips down the court after a made 3-pointer in an NBA In-Season Tournament game vs. the Detroit Pistons at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. (Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)
Per CleaningTheGlass.com, the Pacers have the best shot quality in the NBA. They are 2nd in wide-open 3-point attempt rate (3PAr) and lead the Association in defensive wide-open 3PAr. "Wide-open" is when the shooter has at least six feet worth of distance from the nearest defender.
The Celtics on the other hand are 22nd in defensive 3PAr rate and 24th in defensive wide-open 3PAr. Any NBA team can get hot from deep so the most important aspect of 3-point defense is not allowing them, especially "wide-open" 3s.
Finally, and maybe I'm reading too much into this, but this line is fishy. Boston's average line is -10.5 in its last four meetings with Indiana dating back to last season and, again, the Celtics beat the Pacers by 51 in November.
My prediction: Celtics 124, Pacers 121
New Orleans Pelicans (+3.5) at Sacramento Kings, 10 p.m. ET
The Pelicans swept the Kings in a back-to-back at home on November 20-22. Both of New Orleans's All-Stars Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson destroyed Sacramento in those meetings.
Ingram is scoring 27.0 points per game (PPG) vs. the Kings this season on 68.3% true shooting with a +21 net rating. While Zion is averaging 25.5 PPG on 70.9% true shooting with a +34 net rating.
Sactown doesn't have anyone to defend Ingram or Zion. Kings big Domantas Sabonis and forwards Keegan Murray and Harrison Barnes are just too small for Williamson. Plus, they don't have a long, athletic wing to contest Ingram's shots.
Pelicans All-Stars Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram strategize during a game vs. the Sacramento Kings at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans. (Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)
Furthermore, New Orleans is dominating Sacramento in the battle for possessions through their 1st two meetings. The Pelicans is +13.5 rebounds per game vs. the Kings this season and has thrown 3.5 fewer turnovers on average.
Lastly, NOLA wing Herbert Jones is one of the best on-ball defenders and the perfect guy to guard Sacramento All-Star PG De'Aaron Fox. The Pelicans use Jones to defend their opponents' perimeter scorers.