Bounce-Back NBA Betting Saturday: Celtics-Suns Plus 1 Huge Favorite
Alright, I lied about retiring if the Los Angeles Lakers upset the Milwaukee Bucks Friday. Obviously. In my defense, I was on the "right side". I bet Milwaukee's -135 moneyline before LeBron James was officially ruled out and the Bucks got as high as -180. Any professional sports bettor would tell you getting that much closing line value is a "plus-EV bet".
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My lone winning bet Friday was one of the biggest "sweats" I've had in the NBA all season. I bet the New Orleans Pelicans -7.5 over the Philadelphia 76ers. The Pelicans were up 29 points going into halftime. Philadelphia fought back and cut the lead to 5 points inside the final minute of regulation. What looked like a "sure-fire" winner turned into a "lucky win" or even "bad beat", depending on how you look at it. Either way, going 1-1 Friday was enough for me to gamble on the NBA again Saturday.
NBA Saturday Betting Card
- The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.
San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors (-10.5), 8:30 p.m. ET
Regarding the spread (Golden State -11), Victor Wembanyama being out for the Spurs is a bigger deal than Steph Curry for the Warriors. They have lost all three games Curry has missed by an average of 11.0 PPG. But, those losses were to the Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Milwaukee Bucks.
Per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), Wembanyama has a +7.0 on/off net rating and Curry is +2.6. The Warriors can replace Curry with future Hall of Fame PG Chris Paul. Plus, Golden State still has Klay Thompson and SF Jonathan Kuminga, who is in the midst of a breakout season. Kuminga has a +10 net rating since the All-Star game while scoring 16.9 points per game (PPG).
Golden State Warriors SF Jonathan Kuminga goes to the hoop on San Antonio Spurs forward Jeremy Sochan at Chase Center. (Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)
Furthermore, Curry could use a break. He's been hit-or-miss since the All-Star Game. Curry is averaging seven fewer points per game (28.0-21.0) post-All-Star break. His true shooting rate has gone from 63.6% in the 1st-half of the season to 51.3% in the 2nd-half.
Lastly, Wembanyama is irreplaceable for the Spurs. If he was, they wouldn't have him in the 1st place. San Antonio has one of the worst defenses in the NBA despite Wembanyama being one of the best defensive players in the Association. Golden State's biggest weakness is its lack of size. Wemby obviously could exploit that.
Bet 1.1u on the Warriors -10.5 (-110) at FanDuel. I'll take Golden State up to -11.
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Boston Celtics at Phoenix Suns (+5.5), 8:30 p.m. ET
Boston has lost back-to-back games to the Cleveland Cavaliers and Denver Nuggets and everyone thinks the Celtics won't lose a 3rd straight. Per Pregame.com, more than 80% of the action is on Boston at the time of writing. Having a contrarian mindset is a good foundation for sports betting. Plus, Pinnacle Sportsbook makes Phoenix's spread pricier, which is significant because Pinnacle is a "market-making" oddsmaker that legal U.S. sportsbooks copy.
Phoenix Suns All-Stars Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Bradley Beal at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. (Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports)
Also, Suns All-Star Devin Booker was upgraded to "questionable" Saturday afternoon. Booker averages 27.5 PPG and dishes a team-high 6.8 assists per game. He has a +7.3 on/off net rating, according to CTG. Before he got hurt, Booker, Kevin Durant, and Bradley Beal on the floor together made up one of the most efficient 5-man lineups in the NBA.
Bet 1.1u on Phoenix +5.5 (-110) at FanDuel. I'd bet the Suns down to +4 if Booker ends up playing.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my NBA 2023-24 betting record via X all season.