NBA Future Bets Post-All-Star Break Include Clippers To Win The West
Hand up: The 1st half of the NBA season was a hellscape for ya boy. My NBA bankroll took a dump but I have a plan to get it back. Below are a few NBA gambling looks I've added to my portfolio after the All-Star Game.
New York Knicks to finish sixth or better in regular-season Eastern Conference standings (+160)
The bet here is that the Knicks will finish above the postseason play-in tourney. New York is a half-game up on the Heat for the 6-seed in the East entering the All-Star break and two back of the Nets for the 5-seed.
The top-four seeds in the East are locked in but the 5-seed is gettable. According to TankAThon.com, the Knicks, Nets and Heat all have the same strength of schedule remaining.
From an efficiency standpoint, the Knicks are a top-five team in the East. Basketball Reference ranks NYK fifth in SRS, which blends point-per-game differential and strength of schedule.
Per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), the Knicks are seventh in the NBA in net points per 100 possessions with non-garbage time removed. They are fourth in spread differential as well.
Knicks' Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson high-five during a game vs. Utah the Jazz at Madison Square Garden. (Evan Yu/Getty Images)
Furthermore, the Knicks don't have any injury concerns (at the moment) and head coach Tom Thibodeau is known for running his starters into the ground.
Knicks All-Star Julius Randle and All-Star-snub Jalen Brunson won't be getting any "load management" down the stretch.
NYK trading for F Josh Hart was a smart move. Hart played with Brunson in college at Villanova and he's one of the best rebounding guards in the NBA.
New York Knicks' odds to finish as a 6-seed or better in the Eastern Conference regular-season standings at DraftKings Sportsbook as of Sunday, Feb. 19th.
Los Angeles Clippers to win the Western Conference (+550)
For all the s*** the Clippers got for load managing, and rightfully so, they are where they want to be entering the 2nd half. Clearly, home-court advantage doesn't matter to the Clippers.
As long as they avoid the play-in tourney, I'm not concerned with LAC's playoff seeding. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are healthy and ballin'.
When Kawhi and George are on the floor, the Clippers score 11.3 more points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time, according to CTG. This ranks in the 98% of all 5-man lineups in the NBA.
I love the additions the Clippers made at the trade deadline. They picked up big Mason Plumlee and scoring guards Eric Gordon and Bones Hyland who can both add 20 points off the bench any night.
The Clippers were asking too much out of C Ivica Zubac and trading for Plumlee was needed. Plumlee can help defend Suns' C DeAndre Ayton and Denver's Nikola Jokic.
The Los Angeles Clippers converse on the bench against the Golden State Warriors at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. (Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)
The Denver Nuggets are the consensus favorite to come out of the West. They upset the Clippers in the Orlando Bubble playoffs in 2020 and matchup well with LAC.
Generally, the most impactful player on the court are these scoring wings such as LeBron James and Kevin Durant. Well, the Clippers have two of those guys and the Nuggets have none.
Phoenix is the other favorite along with the Nuggets and Clippers. The Suns have the same injury concerns as the Clippers but with a lot less depth.
In fact, as a Clippers backer, I'm more afraid of the Warriors than the Suns. Golden State however is the 9-seed currently with Steph Curry injured.
The other teams in front of the Clippers in the Western Conference standings — Sacramento Kings and Memphis Grizzlies — don't have playoff experience.
Miami Heat big Bam Adebayo to win NBA Defensive Player of the Year (+750)
You have to shop around for this number because Bam's price to win DPOY varies. The best number I found is +750. By the eye-ball test, Adebayo is the best defensive player in the NBA.
Bam is now the Heat's defensive anchor, allowing teammate Jimmy Butler to focus on offense. Adebayo is third in Defensive Win Shares behind the two Cavalier bigs (PF Evan Mobley and C Jarrett Allen).
It's from last season's playoffs but watch the video below to get an idea of how tenacious Bam's defense can be.
The two players ahead of Bam in the NBA DPOY race aren't locks. Grizzlies All-Star Jaren Jackson Jr. is anywhere from -155 to -190 as the favorite. Bucks C Brook Lopez is in the +400 to +550 range.
Several teams in the West improved at the trade deadline and Memphis didn't. The Grizzlies will regress in the second half and that hurts Jackson's case. He also gets into foul trouble too much and only 6.7 rebounds per game.
Lopez isn't even the best defensive player on this own team and Giannis Antetokounmpo is tied with Mobley for the 5th-best odds to win NBA DPOY. Giannis could take votes away from Lopez.
Bam Adebayo defends Celtics guard Derrick White during the 2022 NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference Finals at the TD Garden in Boston. (Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images)
The bottom line is Bam can defend every position on the floor and the Heat are the 7th seed entering the second-half of the season because of its defense.
Miami ranks fourth in defensive rating and just 27th offensively. If the Heat make the playoffs via non-play-in, Adebayo's DPOY case improves.
Check out my NBA Hoops At Lunch show on the OutKick Bets Podcast feed Monday-Friday during the regular season.