NBA Friday Betting 4-Pack Has 2 Sides, 2 Totals
If I can go on an NBA-betting win streak ahead of Super Bowl LVIII, that'd be great. I'm eyeing at least a dozen Super Bowl LVIII players, game, and team props. Ideally, I'll be doing so with house money. Although, as my father used to say: "I can wish in one hand, crap in the other, and see what fills up faster." I'm hoping it's the hand with the wishes for my four …
NBA Friday Best Bets
- The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.
UNDER 239 in Los Angeles Clippers at Detroit Pistons, 7 p.m. ET
My look for the UNDER 239 in Clippers-Pistons is a vibe- and trends-based bet. The market is on the Over and has steamed the total up from a 236-point opener. Detroit has the 7th-fastest pace in the NBA and LAC is 25th in pace. That said, the Pistons turn the ball over too much, so the Clippers should be able to control the flow of this game.
Both teams have a below-average 3-point attempt rate (3PAr). Detroit is 23rd in 3-point shooting percentage and Los Angeles is 23rd in wide-open 3PAr over the last six games. The Pistons have the second-best defensive wide-open 3PAr in the NBA this season. "Wide-open" is when the 3-point shooter is at least six feet from the nearest defender.
Los Angeles Clippers PG James Harden shoots over Raptors SF Scottie Barnes at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Canada. (Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports)
Detroit has gone Under the total in four consecutive home games with a -13.9 Over/Under (O/U) margin in those tilts. Randomly, the Pistons shoot better on the road. Detroit scores 111.8 points per game (PPG) at home and 113.5 PPG in away games.
Los Angeles is 0-5 O/U in the past five road games with a -7.2 O/U differential. The Clippers are 5-10 O/U as road favorites this season too. Yet, their effective field goal shooting drops from 58.0 percent at home to 55.6 percent on the road.
My prediction: Clippers 121, Pistons 108
- Bet 1.1u on UNDER 239 (-110) in Clippers-Pistons at Caesars Sportsbook. Gimme the UNDER down to 235.5.
Phoenix Suns (-3.5) at Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 p.m. ET
This is Phoenix’s sixth game of a 7-game road trip. The Suns are 3-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in the first five games. Under the radar, Phoenix has been solid now that Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal are all healthy.
The Suns were 11-5 SU last month with the fourth-best net efficiency, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). Booker averaged 30.0 PPG on 64.7 percent true shooting in January. KD is shooting 53.3 percent from the field this season while scoring 28.4 PPG.
Phoenix Suns All-Stars Devin Booker and Kevin Durant run down the court after made basket vs. the Rockets at Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. (Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports)
Furthermore, the Hawks don’t have the perimeter defense to stop Phoenix’s All-Stars from destroying them. Atlanta is 28th in defensive rating and has the worst defensive shot quality in the NBA, per CTG. KD, Booker, and Beal like to operate in the mid-range. The Hawks are 25th in defensive field goal shooting vs. mid-range jumpers, per CTG.
They’ve won their last two games entering Friday vs. the Toronto Raptors and Los Angeles Lakers. But, those teams suck and Phoenix is good. Atlanta is 1-5 SU and ATS as home underdogs and 12-35 ATS in all games.
My prediction: Suns 128, Hawks 120
- Bet 1.08u on Phoenix -3.5 (-108) at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Suns are bet-able up to -5.
Orlando Magic at Minnesota Timberwolves (-6.5), 8 p.m. ET
The Timberwolves were -5.5 favorites when they rolled the Magic 113-92 last month in Orlando. Minnesota shot better from the field (53.8-36.2%) and got to the foul line more than Orlando in that game (18.8-11.7%). Yet, the Magic won the battle of possessions and attempted 14 more field goals.
Even though Orlando was missing second-leading scorer Franz Wagner for that game, and he is in the Magic’s projected starting 5 Friday, a 2-point line adjustment isn’t big enough. These teams play similar styles, but the Timberwolves are more talented and more efficient.
Per CTG, the T-Wolves attempt the seventh-highest frequency of field goals at the rim and the Magic lead the NBA in shots at the rim. But, Minnesota big Rudy Gobert is the favorite to win the 2023-24 NBA Defensive Player of the Year. The Timberwolves are fourth in defensive field goal shooting at the rim and Orlando is 18th, according to CTG.
Minnesota Timberwolves SG Anthony Edwards is fouled by the Orlando Magic at KIA Center in Florida. (Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports)
Granted, Gobert was moved to "questionable" for Friday after I finished this breakdown. However, Minnesota's paint defense remains consistent even when backup big Naz Reid is on the floor. Reid is also a much better offensive player than Gobert and can shoot threes.
Minnesota leads the NBA in defensive rating and Orlando is fourth. But, the T-Wolves are 10-7 SU with a +3.2 non-garbage time net rating and +0.9 spread differential vs. bottom-10 defenses, per CTG. Whereas the Magic are 5-9 SU with a -8.0 net rating and -2.3 spread differential.
Finally, Orlando is 10-16 SU on the road while averaging 4.3 fewer PPG (114.0-109.7). Essentially, the Timberwolves' home-court edge supersedes the loss of Gobert and the Magic having Wagner available Friday.
My prediction: Timberwolves 115, Magic 105
- Bet 1.08u on Minnesota -6.5 (-108) at FanDuel Sportsbook. The T-Wolves are playable up to -8.
OVER 224.5 in Golden State Warriors at Orlando Magic, 8 p.m. ET
Memphis beat Golden State 116-107 on Jan. 15 and stayed Under the 226.5-point total. Oddsmakers are reacting to that result by lowering Friday’s Warriors-Grizzlies total to 224.5. This is an overreaction because these teams play a more Over-friendly style.
Memphis is fourth in 3PAr and Golden State is fifth. In Grizzlies-Warriors on Jan. 15, Memphis had a 62.8 percent 3PAr and hit 10 more 3-balls than Golden State (20-10). Over their last six games, the Grizzlies are 28th in defensive wide-open 3PAr and the Warriors are 29th.
On top of that, Memphis is tied for the fifth-most wide-open 3PAr over that span. If the Grizzlies allow a ton of wide-open threes, the Warriors will shoot better from behind the arc in this meeting.
Golden State Warriors' All-Star Stephen Curry handles vs. Grizzlies big Jaren Jackson Jr. at FedExForum in Memphis, Tennessee. (Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports)
Also, Memphis’s defense is ultra-aggressive and Golden State is clumsy with the ball. The Grizzlies are third in defensive turnover rate (TOV%) and seventh in points off of turnovers per game. The Warriors are 26th in points off of turnovers per game allowed and 21st in offensive TOV%.
Golden State is fourth in offensive rebounding rate and sixth in second-chance PPG. A motivated Warriors team needing wins to get back into the playoff picture and avenge their loss two weeks ago to the Grizzlies should be crashing the glass like crazy Friday.
My prediction: Warriors 122, Grizzlies 111
- Bet 1.1u on OVER 224.5 (-110) in Warriors-Magic at FanDuel. I'll take the OVER up to 227.