If Bucks Don't Beat Lakers Friday, I'll Retire From NBA Betting

I staved off NBA-betting retirement with an uninspiring 1-2 effort Thursday. Still a losing night but at least I hit one bet to give me some false confidence that I can turn this thing around. Granted, most of my losses this week have been either "bad beats" or "coin-flip losses". Regardless, losing is losing and I suck lately. Typically, weekends are a get-right spot for me. Hopefully, that starts early Friday.

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Another reason for my NBA gambling despite getting my teeth kicked in is the current void in sports. The Power 5 men's college basketball tournaments are tipping off next week and MLB Opening Day is later this month. With that in mind, I'm fading a team missing their two best players and backing an NBA Finals contender that the public is a little too down on Friday. 

NBA Friday Betting Card

• The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.

New Orleans Pelicans (-7.5) at Philadelphia 76ers, 7 p.m. ET

Philadelphia All-Star PG Tyrese Maxey is still out with a concussion. Without Maxey and Joel Embiid, the 76ers cannot keep up with the Pelicans. The Sixers need a New Orleans stinker or an insanely hot shooting night. Philly is getting the 2nd-lowest rate of wide-open 3-pointers since the NBA All-Star Game. 

The Pelicans have won by at least 22 points in all four victories post-All-Star break. This includes a 27-point win over the Indiana Pacers and a 23-point win at the New York Knicks in Madison Square Garden. Sixers starting guards Kyle Lowry and Buddy Hield is a bottom-five defensive backcourt in the NBA currently. 

Lowry was released by the Miami Heat and is only in the starting lineup because Maxey is hurt. The 76ers would prefer Lowry come off the bench for 10-15 minutes. Pelicans forwards Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram and SG C.J. McCollum can all attack off the dribble. So, Philly cannot hide both Lowry and Hield. 

New Orleans Pelicans SG C.J. McCollum throws an alley-oop pass to PF Zion Williamson vs. the Philadelphia 76ers at the Smoothie King Center. (Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports)

More importantly, NOLA is more well-rested and fully healthy, which is rare for this team in March. The Pelicans are playing on three days’ of rest and the 76ers last played two days ago. New Orleans is 10-6 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) with a rest edge over its opponent. 

NOLA’s mix of youth, continuity, and underwhelming resume should equal big wins over bad teams at this part of the season. Philadelphia, without Embiid and Maxey, is a "bad team". Pelicans' forwards Trey Murphy III and Herbert Jones are turning into real difference-makers. 

These teams 1st met Nov. 29th and the Sixers were missing Embiid for that game too. The Pelicans waxed the 76ers 124-114 despite Maxey scoring a team-high 33 points on 52.0% shooting. But, Philly also had SG De’Anthony Melton, former backup PG Patrick Beverly and forward Robert Covington, who scored 17, 11, and 12 points, respectively. Simply put, the Sixers don’t have the dudes to run with New Orleans.

Bet 1.08u on the Pelicans -7.5 (-108) at FanDuel. Give me New Orleans up to -9. 

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Milwaukee Bucks (-135) at Los Angeles Lakers, 10 p.m. ET

I've put Lakers games on the betting "ban list" at least five times since New Year's Day. Whether I bet on or against the Lake Show, I usually lose. This begs the question: "Why am I betting on a Lakers game again Friday"? Well, perhaps we are getting a good price for the Bucks since they are coming off a 35-point loss at the Golden State Warriors Wednesday. 

Also, Milwaukee offsets one of Los Angeles's strengths: Manipulating the officials. The Lakers average 5.5 more free-throw attempts per game than their opponents, while the Bucks are +3.2 in free-throw-attempts per game differential. Both teams attack the paint. But, Milwaukee leads the NBA in paint points per game (PPG) allowed post-All-Star break and the Lakers are 27th. 

Los Angeles Lakers' LeBron James goes to the basket on Milwaukee Bucks PF Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) and SG Pat Connaughton at Crypto.com Arena. (Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports)

Furthermore, the Bucks have a better offensive and defensive shot quality since the All-Star Game, according to CleaningTheGlass.com. Finally, Milwaukee's defense has significantly improved so far in the 2nd-half of the season. Pre-All-Star break, the Bucks were 17th in defensive rating. Post-All-Star break, they are 2nd. 

Bet 1.35u on Milwaukee's moneyline (-135) at DraftKings. The Bucks are bet-able up to -3. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my NBA 2023-24 betting record via X all season.