Okay, For Real This Time, Geoff Clark Promises A Winning Night In The NBA Friday
If you think getting my junk kicked in daily is going to stop me from gambling on the NBA, you’re crazy. I’m dumb, stubborn and, because of prior success, have irrational confidence in my ability to handicap basketball. Thursday’s 0-2 performance hurt. It did.
However, the two losses were "Plinko". That’s a term used by VSIN’s Gill Alexander when describing random endings for close games. Plinko is the Price Is Right game where a puck is dropped at the top of a pyramid, bounces through different pegs, and settles on a prize.
Since I have +0.6 closing line value on my NBA 2023-24 bets but a -6.8% return on investment, I think I’ll eventually go on a heater. Lord knows I need to because these daily d*** kickings hurt my ego and my bank account. With that in mind, I’m putting on my clown makeup and doing some NBA picks. May god have mercy on my soul.
NBA Friday Looks
The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Indiana Pacers (-5.5), 7 p.m. ET
Indy is playing better and at full strength. Over the last two weeks, the Pacers have a +3.1 spread differential, which ranks 8th in the NBA, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). They have wins over the Los Angeles Lakers and Clippers and Golden State Warriors over that span.
OKC All-Star combo guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA) has already been ruled out for Friday. Thunder wing Jaylen Williams, who’s in the midst of his breakout campaign, is "doubtful" to play against Indiana. Oklahoma City lost to Indy 121-111 as 5.5 home favorites March 12th without Williams. The Thunder thrive off turning turnovers into points.
Indiana Pacers PG Tyrese Haliburton passes to PF Pascal Siakam vs. the San Antonio Spurs at Frost Bank Center in Texas. (Daniel Dunn-USA TODAY Sports)
But, Pacers All-Star PG Tyrese Haliburton is one of the best floor generals in the NBA and Indy has a low offensive turnover rate because of this. It’s going to be tough for OKC to create looks in the half-court with SGA out. Indiana has the 4th-highest field-goal attempt rate at the rim since March 1st, per CTG, and Oklahoma City is one of the smallest teams in the NBA.
Finally, the Pacers are perhaps the best 3-point shooting team in the Association. Over the last six games, Indy leads the NBA in wide-open 3-point attempt rate on both ends of the floor. "Wide-open" is when the 3-point shooter has at least six feet of distance from the nearest defender.
Bet 1.12u on the Pacers -5.5 (-112) at FanDuel. Indiana is bet-able up to -7 if SGA and Williams are out.
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New York Knicks (+100) at Chicago Bulls, 8 p.m. ET
New York is 6-4 straight up (SU) and 7-3 against the spread (ATS) in the last 10 games. Even in their losses, the Knicks play hard whereas the Bulls take games off. The Bulls have taken some weird losses lately, such as to the Washington Wizards March 25th and a 17-point loss to the Brooklyn Nets last Friday.
Furthermore, an indication of this is that New York crashes the glass relentlessly and Chicago struggles to grab defensive boards. Since March 1st, the Knicks lead the NBA in offensive rebounding rate and the Bulls are 25th defensively, per CTG. NYK is 2nd in passes made per game over that span and that matches the eye test.
NYK’s worst loss in their last 10 games was a 130-126 overtime thriller at the San Antonio Spurs when rookie phenom Victor Wembanyama scored 40 points and grabbed 20 rebounds. Knicks All-Star PG Jalen Brunson scored a career-high 61 points and NYK rallied from 21 down to force overtime.
Though they are worse without All-Star Julius Randle, the Knicks are moving the ball well and everyone is getting touches. This has allowed backup combo guard Miles Deuce McBride to flourish in his increased role. McBride has started the last nine games. Over that span, he is averaging 18.9 points and hitting 3.9 threes per game.
Lastly, New York crushes bad teams. The Knicks are 27-7 SU and 23-10-1 ATS vs. teams with a losing record and they have a +11.5 scoring margin in those games.
Bet 1u on New York's moneyline (+100) at FanDuel. I'd play the Knicks through zero and up to -2.
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Minnesota Timberwolves (+4) at Phoenix Suns, 10 p.m. ET
Minnesota is 2nd in net rating and Phoenix is 9th. Per CTG, the T-Wolves are 15-11 SU vs. top-10 teams with a +3.6 spread differential (ranked 3rd) and the Suns are 8-12 SU with a -2.3 spread differential (19th). Minnesota has the best defensive rating in the NBA with a bullet and Phoenix settles for too many contested mid-range jumpers.
T-Wolves All-Star Anthony Edwards and wing Jaden McDaniels are two of the best on-ball defenders in the NBA. One can focus on Suns All-Star Devin Booker and the other can try to slow down Kevin Durant. Timberwolves C Rudy Gobert's rim protection is the main reason Minnesota has the NBA's best defense rating.
Phoenix Suns SG Devin Booker attempts a layup on Minnesota Timberwolves C Rudy Gobert at Footprint Center in Arizona. (Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports)
The Suns could be without C Jusuf Nurkic. He is questionable with calf soreness after scoring just 2 points in 32 minutes Wednesday in a 122-101 win over the Cleveland Cavaliers. Per CTG, Nurkic has a +11.4 on/off net rating, which is 2nd on the team. If Nurkic misses this game, that’ll allow Gobert to play more free safety and roam off of Phoenix’s center.
My last pro-Timberwolves factor is they’ll most likely win the "battle for possessions". Since March 1st, Minnesota has been 8th in offensive turnover rate (TOV%) and 7th defensively, per CTG. Phoenix is 27th offensively and dead-last in defensive TOV% over that span. The T-Wolves have a half-game lead atop the Western Conference, so I’m expecting an all-in effort Friday.
Bet 1.1u on the Timberwolves +4 (-110) at FanDuel. Give me Minnesota down to +2.5.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my NBA 2023-24 betting record via X all season.