ESPN's Primetime Doubleheader Among 5 Best Bets For NBA Friday
The 1st night back from the NBA All-Star break didn't go as well as I hoped. I split my four bets 2-2 but lost because of the juice and I put a lighter wager on the player prop. My NBA 2023-24 bankroll fell to -6 units (u) Thursday, but I'm +5u in game and player props, so I might have to focus more on those moving forward.
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With that in mind, I'm betting two player props Friday in addition to my three sides, which includes ESPN's primetime doubleheader between Cavaliers-76ers and Bucks-Timberwolves.
NBA Friday Best Bets
- The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.
Cleveland Cavaliers (-4.5) at Philadelphia 76ers, 7:30 p.m. ET
These teams have split their 1st two meetings this season with the road team winning and covering both. Philadelphia’s victory came without Joel Embiid, who is sidelined for the foreseeable future with a knee injury. But, that was February 12th and it’s hard to beat the same team twice when the games are this close together.
The Cavaliers had one more game before the All-Star break. Former NBA player Richard Jefferson said on Patrick Beverly’s podcast that the two games before and after the All-Star break are weird. Technically, that’s the case here but the Cavs are trying to avenge a recent loss to the Sixers.
Cleveland lost to the Orlando Magic 116-109 Thursday. Philly is on the 2nd of a back-to-back (B2B) as well. The Sixers lost at home to the New York Knicks 110-96 Thursday. They are 0-4 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) as underdogs with no rest.
Cleveland Cavaliers SG Donovan Mitchell celebrates after hitting a three vs. the Philadelphia 76ers at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Ohio.
(Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports)
Adding to that, Cavaliers All-Star SG Donovan Mitchell sat out the front end of the B2B with an illness. Mitchell leads Cleveland in scoring at 28.4 points per game (PPG) and in on/off net rating at +15.0, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). He was at shootaround Thursday, so I'm confident Mitchell will play Friday.
Without Embiid, the Sixers won’t be able to do anything in the paint vs. Cavs PF Evan Mobley and C Jarrett Allen. Embiid is one of the best defensive centers in the NBA himself. Cleveland attempts the 3rd-highest rate of field goals at the rim, per CTG. It’s going to be easier for the Cavaliers to score in the paint with Embiid out.
Finally, this is just a "better spot" for Cleveland. Philadelphia is 1-4 SU and ATS as home underdogs with a -10.4 scoring margin this season. Whereas the Cavaliers are 6-2 SU and ATS as favorites from -4 to -7 with a +9.6 scoring margin.
Bet 1.1u on the Cavaliers -4.5 (-110) at Caesars. Cleveland is bet-able up to -5 if Donovan Mitchell plays.
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Phoenix Suns (-4) at Houston Rockets, 7:30 p.m. ET
This is just too good of a number on Phoenix to pass up. The Suns stomped the Rockets 129-113 in Houston Dec. 27th in their 1st meeting this season. All of the players suiting up Friday played in that Suns-Rockets game. Phoenix out-performed Houston in three of the "four factors" and won three of the four quarters.
Both of these teams played Thursday. The Suns lost at the Dallas Mavericks 123-113 as +2 underdogs. The Rockets got crushed in New Orleans 127-105 by the Pelicans as +6.5 underdogs. Phoenix is 7-2 SU on the 2nd of a B2B with a +5.6 scoring margin and Houston is 2-8 SU with a -8.2 scoring margin.
Phoenix Suns All-Star Devin Booker makes a layup against the Houston Rockets at Toyota Center in Texas.
(Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports)
Also, the early betting splits suggest the sharps are backing the Suns and the public is on the Rockets. Per Pregame.com, nearly two-thirds of the cash is on Phoenix while more than 70% of the bets are on Houston as of 10:30 a.m. ET Friday. My hunch is the public is betting the Rockets since they've been much better at home this season and the Suns lost on primetime Thursday.
The sharp, market-making offshores sportsbooks pushed Phoenix to -4 favorites, and the legal U.S. sportsbooks will follow suit. Bookmaker, Betcris, and Pinnacle Sportsbook all have the Suns -4. FanDuel, DraftKings, and Caesars typically copy these spreads. Either way, I'm willing to bet Phoenix up to -5 over Houston Friday.
Bet 1.1u on the Suns -4 (-110) at Caesars. Phoenix is playable up to -5.
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Milwaukee Bucks at Minnesota Timberwolves (-4), 10 p.m. ET
The T-Wolves beat the brakes off of the Bucks 129-105 in their 1st meeting this season Feb. 8th. Minnesota won the 1st three quarters and all "four factors". Granted, Milwaukee was without All-Star PG Damian Lillard and SF Khris Middleton that game. Middleton is still out but Dame will play Friday after winning the 3-Point Contest and NBA All-Star Game MVP this past weekend.
Regardless, the Timberwolves lead the NBA in defensive rating and the Bucks have struggled on offense since hiring coach Doc Rivers. Milwaukee is 3-7 SU and ATS in the 10 games under Rivers. The Bucks are 19th in net rating (-2.5), 20th in offensive efficiency (113.9 points per 100 possessions), and 27th in spread differential (-5.9) over that span, per CTG.
Milwaukee Bucks coach Doc Rivers talks to All-Star Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. the Phoenix Suns at Footprint Center in Arizona.
(Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports)
Milwaukee is 1-3 SU vs. teams with top-10 defensive ratings since hiring Rivers. The Bucks have a -3.3 net rating and a -6.3 spread differential in those games. Plus, Minnesota has the size and perimeter defense to slow down Milwaukee. T-Wolves C Rudy Gobert is a heavy favorite to win NBA Defensive Player of the Year. His rim protection allows T-Wolves guards to close out aggressively on threes.
Lastly, the Timberwolves lock teams up at home and the Bucks are getting crushed as road underdogs this season. Minnesota allows 7.3 fewer PPG at home (109.9-102.6). While Milwaukee is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS as road underdogs with a -14.4 scoring margin.
Bet 1.1u on Minnesota -4 (-110) at FanDuel. Give me the Timberwolves up to -5.
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Raptors SG Gary Trent Jr. OVER 2.5 made 3-pointers (+120) vs. Hawks at FanDuel
Trent has made at least three 3-pointers in 12 of his 21 starts this season and two of three games vs. the Hawks. As a starter, Trent is banging 48.5% of his threes this season. His 3-point rate improves from 41.0% at home to 43.9% on the road.
Toronto Raptors SG Gary Trent Jr. chunks a three vs. the Charlotte Hornets at Scotiabank Arena in Canada.
(Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports)
He went 5-for-7 from behind the arc Thursday against the Brooklyn Nets. Trent connects on 44.4% of his 3-point shots in the 2nd of B2B’s. Atlanta is 25th in 3-pointers per game allowed to opposing shooting guards (3.6). Moreover, the Hawks play at a fast-pace so there will be more possessions for Trent to Over 2.5 made threes.
Bet 0.5u on Raptors SG Gary Trent Jr. OVER 2.5 made 3-pointers (+120)
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Thunder PF Jalen Williams OVER 20.5 points (-115) vs. Wizards at FanDuel
Williams checks all the boxes I'm looking for when betting an Over for a player prop. He gets the required usage and plays really well in these spots. Oklahoma City is at home for the 2nd of a B2B against one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.
Oklahoma City Thunder PF Jalen Williams dribbles with Washington Wizards wing Kyle Kuzma playing defense at Capital One Arena in D.C.
(Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports)
The Wizards allow the 3rd-worst PPG to opposing power forwards (26.2 PPG). Williams has a higher offensive rating at home (127-118), February is his best offensive month of the season thus far, and "no days off" is his rest split by offensive efficiency. Plus, Williams scored 21 points on 9-of-13 shooting vs. Washington Jan. 8th.