4 NBA Friday Bets Worth Fading Or Following After Rough Stretch
Betting the NBA this season is taking years off my life and money out of my bank account. I dropped units (u) Thursday doing the same dumb stuff I've been doing all season. I bet the Miami Heat +5 vs. the Denver Nuggets Thursday with Heat SG Tyler Herro "questionable". Miami closed as +6.5 underdogs after Herro was ruled out and Denver won 107-93.
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I.e. if I waited until the Heat's official starting 5 was released (like I advise y'all daily) then I would've made money on that game. Even worse, Miami got within 4 points with 3.8 seconds remaining but fouled the Nuggets, who hit both free throws to cover the +5 I bet. It was a brutal loss but one I'm getting used to. Regardless of my bad run, I'm getting back out there Friday because why not? If anything, you guys have someone to fade.
NBA Friday Best Bets
- The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons (+9), 7 p.m. ET
This is part fading the Cavaliers and buying stock in an improving Pistons team. Cleveland is 3-0 straight up (SU) vs. Detroit in their 1st three regular-season meetings but the Pistons are 2-0-1 against the spread (ATS). The Cavs have cooled off since going 17-1 SU from Jan. 3rd to Feb. 10th. They are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games.
Cleveland lost at the Chicago Bulls 132-123 in double overtime Wednesday in its previous outing. Detroit has covered three straight games and upset the Bulls 105-95 Tuesday in Chicago as +10 underdogs most recently.
The Pistons have a higher net rating than the Cavaliers post-All-Star break. Two of Cleveland’s opponents over that span were the Washington Wizards and a Joel Embiid-less Philadelphia 76ers. Also, Detroit has better half-court efficiency on both ends of the floor since the All-Star game, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). "Half-court efficiency" is predictive because teams can set up their defenses.
Detroit Pistons PG Cade Cunningham shoots a three Over Chicago Bulls SG Ayo Dosunmu at United Center. (Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports)
Furthermore, Cleveland is 7th in 3-point attempt rate (3PAr) but Detroit is 2nd in defensive "wide-open" 3PAr this season. "Wide-open" is when the 3-point shooter has at least six feet of distance from the nearest defender.
Finally, the Pistons have two athletic, young guards who can challenge Cavaliers guards Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland. Detroit’s bigs, Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duren, match up well with Cleveland’s bigs, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen.
Risk 1u on the Pistons +9 (-112) and ‘sprinkle’ on Detroit's moneyline (+315) at FanDuel.
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Charlotte Hornets (+11) at Philadelphia 76ers, 7 p.m. ET
The 76ers are already without two starters, reigning NBA MVP Joel Embiid and SG De'Anthony Melton, and could be without starting forward Kelly Oubre Jr. too. Both teams are coming off back-to-back losses. The Hornets lost a 2-game miniseries with the Milwaukee Bucks and the Sixers lost to the Boston Celtics and Bucks.
But, based on their recent performance, the Sixers shouldn't be double-digit favorites over any NBA team, including the crappy Hornets. Since the All-Star break, Philadelphia is 27th in non-garbage time net rating at -13.1 and Charlotte is 25th at -10.2, per CTG.
Charlotte Hornets SF Miles Bridges takes a layup against the Milwaukee Bucks at Spectrum Center in North Carolina. (Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports)
According to Pregame.com, more than three-fourths of the action is on Philly as of 12:45 p.m. ET Friday. Despite this, the sharper offshore sportsbooks are making the Hornets pricier. Hence Charlotte might be the sharper side.
Lastly, if you look hard, the Hornets don't have a terrible roster. Sure, Sixers All-Star PG Tyrese Maxey is the best player on the floor. But, Charlotte wing Miles Bridges cancels out Philadelphia wing Tobias Harris. The Hornets have a few sharpshooters off the bench such as SG Seth Curry and PF Davis Bertans and rookie Vasilije Micic has given them good minutes.
BET 1.06u on the Hornets +11 (-106) at FanDuel. Give me Charlotte down to +9.
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Golden State (-3.5) at Toronto Raptors, 7:30 p.m. ET
I've unsuccessfully backed Golden State and faded Toronto recently. I'm going back to the well again because the Warriors play well at a rest disadvantage and the Raptors cannot stop a nosebleed.
Golden State beat the New York Knicks 110-99 Thursday. On the 2nd of a back-to-back (B2B), the Warriors are 8-4 SU and ATS with a +6.7 scoring margin. The Dubs are 11-2 SU and 9-4 ATS as road favorites with a +9.0 scoring margin.
Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry and coach Steve Kerr during a game vs. the Washington Wizards at Capital One Arena. (Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports)
Toronto is 20th in defensive rating since the All-Star break, per CTG, while allowing the most points per miss. Golden State crashes the glass like madmen and ranks 3rd in second-chance points per game (PPG) this month. The Raptors are 25th in defensive wide-open 3PAr this month and we know the Warriors love to chuck threes.
Bet 1.08u on the Warriors -3.5 (-108) at FanDuel. Golden State is playable up to -4.5.
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Milwaukee Bucks (-4) at Chicago Bulls, 10 p.m. ET
I’m stealing this pick from my buddy, and fellow OutKick sports betting analyst, David Troy. He texted me Thursday evening about betting the Bucks over the Bulls Friday. David thinks Milwaukee is a "buy on" team post-All-Star break. For the record, I agree with Mr. Troy. Granted, I’m a bit of a "Doc Rivers apologist".
However, since Feb. 1st, the Bucks are 6th in defensive rating. Chicago had the worst defensive wide-open 3PAr in the NBA last month and Milwaukee is 6th in 3-point shots per game this season and 9th in 3-point percentage. The Bucks are 2-1 SU vs. the Bulls this season but Chicago is 3-0 ATS.
Milwaukee Bucks All-Star Giannis Antetokounmpo attacks the hoop vs. the Chicago Bulls at Fiserv Forum in Wisconsin. (Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports)
That said, Milwaukee’s average spread in those three meetings was -10.5 so Bucks -4.5 is quite the deal. They are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back Friday. Yet, Giannis Antetokounmpo has suited up for all 10 of Milwaukee’s games with zero rest this season and Damian Lillard has played in eight of them. As long as Giannis and Dame play Friday, the Bucks will roll the Bulls.
Bet 1.08u on Milwaukee -4 (-108) at FanDuel. The Bucks are bet-able up to -6.
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