NBA Friday 4-Pack Of Best Bets Includes Fading Both LA Teams
The NBA put on a decent show for a change Thursday. It was an NBA on TNT doubleheader so we got to see Shaq and Barkley and the games were intriguing as well. The Milwaukee Bucks eked past the San Antonio Spurs 125-121. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Spurs rookie big Victor Wembanyama both balled out.
Then the Denver Nuggets beat the Golden State Warriors in one of the best games this season. Nikola Jokic sunk a 40-foot heave as time expired to give the Nuggets a 130-127 victory. Luckily, I stayed away from Golden State's moneyline and only took the Warriors +4 on X, or Twitter.
Speaking of which, follow me @Geoffery_Clark on X for other gambling coverage. Sometimes I'll make live bets for you to fade or follow. If I don't have enough time to write or words to fill out a post, I'll randomly give out bets. That's not the case here. I've sank my teeth into this 14-game card and have four ...
NBA Friday Best Bets
Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers (-3), 7 p.m. ET
The bottom line is Indiana is a better version of Atlanta. The Pacers beat the Hawks 157-152 in Atlanta Nov. 21st. Both teams like to get out in transition. Indy averages +3.7 fastbreak points per game (PPG) and the Hawks are -1.7 in fastbreak PPG.
According to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), both teams have top-10 offensive ratings and bottom-10 defensive ratings. The Pacers are 11-3 straight up (SU) vs. bottom-10 defenses and the Hawks are 8-5 SU. Indiana has a +8.4 spread differential in those games, which is 2nd in the NBA, and Atlanta is -0.2.
Furthermore, the Pacers are 7-1 SU vs. bottom-10 defenses at home with a +16.8 adjusted net rating and +13.4 spread differential, per CTG. They lead the NBA in offensive efficiency and the Hawks are 2-9 SU vs. top-10 offenses.
Indiana has the best wide-open 3-point attempt rate (3PAr) on both ends of the floor. "Wide-open" is when a 3-point shooter has at least six feet worth of distance from the nearest defender. Indy's 3-point shooting is insane in its home gym. The Pacers are +6.5 in 3-pointers per game at home.
Both teams play through their All-Star point guards: Indiana's Tyrese Haliburton and Atlanta PG Trae Young. But, Haliburton does a better job getting teammates looks, like a real point guard. While Young dribbles the air out of the ball and settles for tough shots.
Haliburton has a better assist-to-turnover rate than Trae (5.0-2.6), net rating (6.5 vs. -0.4), and effective field goal shooting (60.2-52.5%), which accounts for 2- and 3-point shooting. If they go mano y mano, Haliburton is going to light Trae up.
My prediction: Pacers 134, Hawks 125
Los Angeles Clippers at New Orleans Pelicans (-105), 8 p.m. ET
Ugghh. I know I'm going to hate myself for making this bet. Whatever, I'll back New Orleans. If this was in primetime, I'd pass on this game. But, the Pelicans are 9-1 SU and against the spread (ATS) vs. the Clippers in their last 10 meetings.
New Orleans beat Los Angeles 116-106 in an NBA In-Season Tournament game Nov. 24th. Clippers All-Stars Kawhi Leonard, James Harden, and Paul George all suited up that night.
NOLA out-performed LAC in three of the "four factors". Pelicans forwards Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson combined for 62 points on 54.3% shooting. Granted, the Clippers are playing much better now than back in November.
New Orleans Pelicans wing Brandon Ingram shoots the ball over Clippers wing Paul George in the NBA In-Season Tournament at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. (Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images)
However, the Pelicans rank 6th in adjusted net rating vs. top-10 teams and 2nd in ATS margin at +4.0, according to CTG. They are 18-12 SU and 19-10-1 ATS at home vs. teams with a winning record since last season.
Los Angeles is one of the smallest teams in the NBA and New Orleans is an elite rebounding team. NOLA is grabbing 9.5 more rebounds per game than LA in their last four meetings. The Pelicans are 4th in putback points per miss, per CTG.
My prediction: Pelicans 114, Clippers 110
Detroit Pistons (+10) at Golden State Warriors, 10 p.m. ET
Golden State's heart-breaking loss at home to Denver Thursday was its 4th loss in the last five games. Even though the Warriors are champions, this could be a "flat spot" for them. After all, the Pistons are the worst team in the NBA.
Yet, believe it not, Detroit is playing better recently. Sure, the Pistons are only 1-30 SU in their last 30 games. However, they have covered four of their past five. Detroit held a 21-point lead over the Boston Celtics in a 128-122 loss last week.
A sign the Pistons are playing hard is how hard they are closing out on threes. They are 2nd in wide-open 3PAr on defense. Plus, the Pistons crash the glass and rank 9th in points per miss, according to CTG.
Pistons SG Jaden Ivey celebrates with SF Bojan Bogdanovic while beating the Toronto Raptors at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit. (Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
Golden State beat Detroit 120-109 on the road Nov. 6th and the Warriors covered as -9.5 favorites. But, Draymond Green played while the Pistons were down key guys. Detroit starting big Jalen Duren, SF Bojan Bogdanović, and SG Jaden Ivey.
Duren has a +7.9 on/off net rating, which is in the 84th percentile of bigs, and Ivey has a +5.3 on/off net rating, per CTG. These guys play is a factor. Duren is the best rebounder on the floor in this game and Ivey attacks the rim all the time.
Finally, without Draymond, the Warriors have one of the weaker frontcourts in the NBA. C Kevon Looney is their only defensive, rebounding big. And the Pistons attempt the 3rd-highest volume of field goals at the rim, per CTG.
My prediction: Warriors 123, Pistons 119
Memphis Grizzlies (+4) at Los Angeles Lakers, 10 p.m. ET
The Lakers have been terrible since winning the 1st-ever NBA In-Season Tournament Dec. 9th. They are 3-9 SU and 4-8 ATS over that span. Also, this is a revenge game for the Grizzlies and I'm a sucker for a good revenge game angle.
Los Angeles is 7-3 SU and ATS with a +7.0 scoring margin vs. Memphis since 2022. This includes the Lakers eliminating the Grizzlies in the 1st-round of the 2023 NBA playoffs. LA closed out the series with a 40-point win in Game 6 so you know Memphis wants revenge Friday.
Memphis Grizzlies PG Ja Morant goes up for a layup against the Lakers during an NBA game at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. (Harry How/Getty Images)
More importantly, recent reports (probably leaked by LeBron) are saying the Lakers' locker room has a "deepening disconnect" with head coach Darvin Ham. I.e. Los Angeles is wounded and it's time to fade the Lakers.
One of my gambling buddies is a huge LeBron James fan and even he is fading the Lakers. His biggest complaint is LA's lack of 3-point shooting, which he is correct about. You know it's bad when LeBron fans starting fading him.