NBA Finals Nuggets At Heat Game 4 Props: Jamal Murray, Bam Adebayo, KCP

Player props saved me in Game 3 of the 2023 NBA Finals between the Denver Nuggets (2-1) and Miami Heat (1-2) Wednesday. I was on the wrong side with a Heat +2.5 wager for Game 3 but I swept my player props 3-0.

Denver boat-raced Miami 109-94 Wednesday thanks to 30-plus-point triple doubles by both Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. The NBA Finals stays in South Beach Friday for Game 4 with tip-off set for 8:30 p.m. ET.

NBA Finals Game 4 Player Props

Nuggets PG Jamal Murray 25.5 points

I talked about this move in my Game 3 player props post but I'm using a "'sharp' odds cheat-code" here with some reverse engineering. The Over for Murray's point prop is pricier than the UNDER at all the legal U.S. sportsbooks.

But, at Pinnacle Sportsbook, the Over is +101 and the UNDER is -133. Pinnacle is the sharpest shop in the world because it's known for booking the largest sports bets. Pinnacle is steering its whale clientele towards Murray's Over.

Denver Nuggets PG Jamal Murray shoots a floater over Heat big Bam Adebayo in Game 3 of the 2023 NBA Finals at Kaseya Center in Miami. (Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

Murray erupted for a game-high 34 points Wednesday on 54.5% shooting (3-for-6 from behind the arc). The pricing of Murray's point prop is even more suspicious when you look at how well he's playing this postseason.

He is averaging 27.4 points per game (PPG) in these playoffs on 48.4% shooting. Murray has scored at least 26 points in 11 of his 18 postseason games this year and two of the three NBA Finals tilts.

However, the bulk of Murray's production is via tough shots. Miami coach Erik Spoelstra has a better chance of slowing down Murray than Jokic. The Heat have several good perimeter defenders but no one can shut down Jokic.

BET: Denver PG Jamal Murray UNDER 15.5 points (-110) at DraftKings

Gambling strategy: I'm only betting a 0.75-ish units (u) on my three Game 4 NBA Finals props. For example, 1u = $100.

Odds for Nuggets PG Jamal Murray's UNDER points for Game 4 of the 2023 NBA Finals vs. the Heat from DraftKings.

Heat big Bam Adebayo 20.5 points

This is another "odds cheat-code" situation combined with the fact that Jokic cannot prevent Bam from getting good looks. The OVER for Bam's point prop is more expensive at Pinnacle and cheaper at all the legal U.S. sportsbooks.

Bam is averaging 23.0 PPG in the 2023 NBA Finals with a team-high 27.3% usage rate. He has scored at least 21 points in all three games this series. Adebayo put up 22 points in Game 3 despite shooting just 7-of-21.

Heat big Bam Adebayo shoots a runner over the Denver Nuggets during Game 3 of the 2023 NBA Finals at Kaseya Center. (Kyle Terada - Pool/Getty Images)

Miami will continue to run offense through Bam since Jokic is one of Denver's worst defenders and the Heat may still be without SG Tyler Herro for Game 4. As someone who bet Miami to win this series, I hope Herro comes back. But, I doubt we see him Friday.

The Heat's four-out lineup works best if Adebayo is attacking the paint. Since this is a must-win game for Miami, I expect to see an aggressive Heat team in Game 4. Plus, an aggressive Bam could get Jokic into foul trouble.

BET: Miami big Bam Adebayo OVER 20.5 points (+100) at DraftKings

Odds for Heat big Bam Adebayo's OVER points for Game 4 of the 2023 NBA Finals vs. the Nuggets from DraftKings.

Nuggets SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 2.5 rebounds

Most importantly, KCP has grabbed at least three rebounds in 12 of 18 games this postseason including six consecutive games and eight out of nine.

Furthermore, Caldwell-Pope's defense guarantees him at least 30 minutes of playing time. He averages 33.4 minutes per game in these playoffs, which is up from 31.3 minutes per game in the regular season.

Denver Nuggets SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope defends Miami Heat wing Jimmy Butler during Game 3 of the 2023 NBA Finals. (Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images)

Miami doesn't have a lot of size and chuck a bunch of 3s. The Nuggets will need KCP out there to defense of the Heat's perimeter players such as Jimmy Butler, PG Gabe Vincent, and SG Max Strus.

Lastly, missed 3-pointers usually lead to long rebounds. KCP is a hustle player who will obviously help out on the glass. Since he will be on the perimeter anyways long missed 3s could fall in his lap.

BET: Denver SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope OVER 2.5 rebounds (-130) at DraftKings

Odds for Nuggets SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope OVER rebounds for Game 4 of the 2023 NBA Finals vs. the Heat from DraftKings.