NBA Finals Game 3 Props For Jimmy Butler, Kevin Love And MPJ

The Miami Heat (1-1) stole home-court advantage in the 2023 NBA Finals vs. the Denver Nuggets (1-1) after winning Game 2 back in the Mile High City. Game 3 of the NBA Finals tips off at 8:30 p.m. ET Wednesday at Kaseya Center in South Beach.

After a hot streak during the conference semifinals and finals, my return on investment has shrunk betting on player props. Well, Game 3 of the NBA Finals will be "comeback season" on the player prop front.

NBA Finals Game 3 Player Props

Miami Heat PF Kevin Love made 3-pointers: 1.5

One of basketball’s rules is “Always reward a big man for hustling and rebounding with offensive touches”. Love didn’t play in Games 6 and 7 in the Eastern Conference Finals and Game 1 of the NBA Finals.

That’s three consecutive Love sat on the bench. Love was reinserted into the Heat’s starting 5 for Game 2 and he gave them good minutes. K-Love grabbed 10 boards, got two steals, and banged two 3s in 22:13 of run.

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If he brings all of these things to the table then Love needs shots as a reward and to keep him engaged in the offense. At this stage of Love’s career, he rarely gets in the post and mostly chucks 3s.

Love has a 71.2% 3-point-attempt rate (3PAr) in these playoffs and a 72.7% 3PAr during the regular season. His postseason 3PAr is the 3rd-highest on Miami behind SGs Max Strus and Duncan Robinson.

Miami Heat PF Kevin Love shoots a 3 during Game 2 of the 2023 NBA Finals vs. the Nuggets at the Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. (Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images)

Also, Love playing on the perimeter pulls one of Denver’s forwards out of the paint. This allows Heat wing Jimmy Butler to attack a slow Nikola Jokic off the dribble. Plus, it’s not like the Nuggets are worried about Love beating them.

Ultimately, my point is Love will get the required volume of 3s to go Over 1.5 made 3-pointers. And that’s all I can ask for if I’m betting on this prop. Love has sunk at least two 3s in 10 of his 17 games this postseason.

There’s a reason the Over for Love’s 3-point prop is +165. It could be a “trap line” so perhaps go lighter on this prop than the others. 

BET: Heat PF Kevin Love OVER 1.5 made 3-pointers (+175) at DraftKings

Odds for the OVER in Heat big Kevin Love's 3-pointers made vs. Nuggets in Game 3 of the NBA Finals from DraftKings.

Heat wing Jimmy Butler assist prop: 6.5

This is an “odds cheat-code” bet. The Over is more expensive for Butler’s assist prop at all of the legal U.S. sportsbooks. But, at Pinnacle Sportsbook, which is a sharper offshore shop, the UNDER for Butler’s assist prop is more expensive as of Tuesday afternoon.

Pinnacle is considered sharp because it accepts the largest sports bets in the world. Typically, when there’s a discrepancy between Pinnacle and DraftKings, FanDuel, or BetMGM Sportsbooks, I’ll side with Pinnacle.

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When I saw this discrepancy in the odds, I tried to reverse engineer why the odds were different. My 1st guess is Butler has actually dished 6 or fewer assists in 12 of his 17 games in these playoffs.

Butler went UNDER 6.5 assists in 44 of his 64 games during the regular season. There’s one big caveat to that: Butler is averaging 8.3 assists in his four regular-season and postseason games vs. the Nuggets. 😬 That’s bad, right? 

Heat SF Jimmy Butler puts up a floater vs. the Nuggets in Game 2 of the 2023 NBA Finals at the Ball Arena. (Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images)

However, maybe Pinnacle has a read on how Butler will play in Game 3. Butler hasn’t scored 30 points since Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals vs. the Boston Celtics. We are due for a Jimmy Buckets game.

Plus, the Heat have several competent ball handlers and a diverse offense. Maybe Butler operates out of the post or attacks the paint and looks to score in Game 3.

Perhaps he gets hockey assists or his teammates miss wide-open shots on Butler passes. There are several ways a player could NOT get assists.

Either way, my main point is Pinnacle might have this figured out and I’ll bet the cheaper odds for Butler’s UNDER 6.5 assists in Game 1 at DraftKings.

BET: Miami SF Jimmy Butler UNDER 6.5 assists (-110) at DraftKings

Odds for the UNDER in Miami SF Jimmy Butler's assist prop vs. Nuggets in Game 3 of the NBA Finals from DraftKings.

Denver Nuggets SF Michael Porter Jr. Point Prop: 14.5

There are a few ways this bet can cash. First, MPJ could be in Denver coach Mike Malone’s doghouse. Nuggets backup SF Bruce Brown has been giving them good minutes too. I like Brown’s game and if I were Malone I’d give Brown some more playing time.

He didn’t name any of his players specifically but Malone mentioned something like “don’t allow shooting badly affect other parts of your game” in his Game 2 press conference. We all know who Malone was talking about though. It was Porter. 

This brings me to the other way the Under for MPJ’s point prop could cash: The NBA Finals could be overwhelming Porter. The Heat are a tough team that’s well-coached and Porter is young.

Furthermore, MPJ is a role player and role players generally shoot better at home. Through Game 2 of the finals, Porter is averaging 9.5 points on 7-of-24 shooting and 17.6% (3-of-17) from 3.

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Porter scored 14 points in Game 1 and 5 points Sunday. He scored 17 points and 10 points in his two Nuggets-Heat meetings during the regular season.

But, Denver was missing Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon) in the game where MPJ scored 17 points. So Porter had to put up more shots. 

Denver Nuggets SF Michael Porter Jr. chucks a 3-pointers vs. the Miami Heat in Game 1 of the 2023 NBA Finals at the Ball Arena. (Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images)

There’s a world where MPJ has a hot-shooting night and goes scores 15 in the 1st 15 minutes of the game. However, as this series progresses, the pace will slow down and there will be fewer possessions aka shots.

Lastly, UNDERs are generally better bets in playoff games around all major sports because the public likes to bet Overs. 

BET: Denver SF Michael Porter Jr. UNDER 14.5 points (-115) at DraftKings

Odds for the UNDER in Denver SF Michael Porter Jr's point prop vs. Miami Heat in Game 3 of the NBA Finals from DraftKings.