Just Make It Stop: Best Bets For Dallas Mavericks At Boston Celtics Game 5 Of The 2024 NBA Finals
Just put us out of our misery already. This god-awful NBA season continues thanks to the Dallas Mavericks smashing the Boston Celtics 122-84 in Game 4 Friday. We head back to Boston Monday for Game 5 of this garbage 2024 NBA Finals to see if the Celtics can close out this series.
If it sounds like I'm salty, well I am. Not only did I go 1-3 in my NBA Finals Game 4 "best bets," but I also got together with my fellow NBA fan friends to watch that trash. Granted, Game 4 was over by halftime, so I called it an early night. Yet, this entire NBA season has been a disaster from both an entertainment and betting perspective.
NBA Game 5 Bet Slip: Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics
- 1.1 units (u) on Boston -6.5 (-110) at BetMGM.
- 0.33u on Celtics PG Jrue Holiday OVER 13.5 Points (-111) at FanDuel.
- 0.31u on Mavericks SG Kyrie Irving UNDER 23.5 points (-102) at DraftKings.
- 0.3u on Boston SF Jayson Tatum UNDER 5.5 assists (+115) at BetMGM.
Celtics -6.5 over Mavericks
Through the first three games of the 2024 NBA Finals, the Celtics are averaging 8.5 more wide-open 3-point attempts per game. "Wide-open" is when the 3-point shooter is at least six feet from the nearest defender. And, as we all know, the 3-pointer is the most important aspect of the NBA nowadays.
More importantly, all of Boston's starting 5, whether Al Horford or an injured Kristaps Porzingis starts at center, can shoot threes. While only Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving are good 3-point shooters for Dallas. Neither Luka nor Kyrie are good defenders, whereas the Celtics have four elite two-way players in their starting five.
Dallas Mavericks All-Star Luka Doncic drives to the paint on Boston Celtics guards Derrick White and Jrue Holiday in Game 5 of the 2024 NBA Finals at American Airlines Center. (Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
Game 4 was just "the Celtics being the Celtics." We've seen them "play with their food" twice in these playoffs. Boston has bounced back from their first losses in these playoffs with 20- and 13-point victories. Those two losses were Game 2 at home. So, the Celtics went on the road and blew out their opponents in the next game.
These teams are splitting the "four factors" in this series, with the Mavericks winning the rebounding and turnover battles. Ultimately, those are mostly "effort stats" and I'm banking on a better effort from Boston in Game 5. If the Celtics do a better job in the "battle of possessions", they'll win by double digits Monday.
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Boston Celtics PG Jrue Holiday OVER 13.5 Points
Even though Holiday is one of the best two-way players in the NBA, he's still a role player in Boston's offense, and role players perform better at home. Holiday's field goal, 3-point and free-throw shooting and offensive rating all improve on his home floor compared to road games in the regular season.
Furthermore, Holiday's shooting rates at home are nuts. He is shooting 50.3% from the field in Boston, 46.0% from behind the arc, and 86.2% from the charity stripe. In the playoffs, Jrue has 50.3% field goal shooting, 40.5% from deep, and 95.5% from the foul line.
Celtics PG Jrue Holiday shoots a three vs. the Dallas Mavericks in Game 2 of the 2024 NBA Finals at TD Garden in Boston. (David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports)
Lastly, FanDuel is booking a smaller number for the Over on Holiday's point prop than Pinnacle Sportsbook (-119). Pinnacle is a "market-making" oddsmaker whose odds legal U.S. sportsbooks usually mimic. Eventually, FanDuel will move its odds for Holiday's Over closer to Pinnacles. Until then, we are "getting the best of it".
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Dallas Mavericks SG Kyrie Irving UNDER 23.5 Points
Kai has cleared this number in just seven of his 21 games this postseason, including once in the 2024 NBA Finals. Irving scored less than 24 points in both of his games vs. the Celtics during the regular season too. Since 2020, Kyrie has scored 20 or fewer points in seven of his 10 visits to Boston.
Mavericks SG Kyrie Irving shoots over Boston Celtics C Al Horford in the 2024 NBA Finals at American Airlines Center in Dallas. (Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports)
Aside from their bigs, the Celtics don't have weak on-ball defenders for Irving to exploit. Holiday and Boston SG Derrick White form the best defensive backcourt in the NBA. Tatum and Brown are monsters defensively. In Game 2, Luka and Kyrie went a combined 4-for-14 from the field with Celtics C Al Horford guarding them.
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Boston Celtics SF Jayson Tatum UNDER 5.5 Assists
Tatum is averaging 6.3 assists per game in the 2024 NBA Finals. However, when betting on player props, it's better to look at the mean rather than averages. He's dished 6+ assists in just three of the four games this series, but 12 assists in Game 2. Tatum has thrown 6+ assists in 28 of his 74 games this regular season and eight of 18 in these playoffs.
Boston Celtics All-Star Jayson Tatum looks to pass while Dallas Mavericks SG Kyrie Irving is playing defense in Game 4 of the 2024 NBA Finals at American Airlines Center. (Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports)
Also, the Celtics are unselfish and get "hockey assists" by swinging the ball often. Even if Tatum's nice pass leads to a basket, he might not get credit for the assist. This is an "elimination game", so the tempo may slow down. Fewer possessions lead to fewer points and assist opportunities. Finally, I'm not going to lie, that plus-money payout is enticing.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NBA 2023-24 betting record via X all season.