Unloading Four Bets On NBA Finals Game 4: Boston Celtics At Dallas Mavericks
It's a matter of "when" not "if" the Boston Celtics become the 2023-24 NBA champions (most likely). Boston is up 3-0 against the Dallas Mavericks entering Game 4. There's never been an NBA team to rally back from down 3-0 to win a playoff series. The Celtics held off the Mavericks, who cut a 21-point fourth-quarter deficit to one in Game 3 but wound up losing 106-99.
Luka Dončić got crushed on social media after fouling out Wednesday and complaining to the refs throughout Game 3. In his defense, Luka did put up numbers, albeit inefficiently. Dončić scored 27 points on 40.7% shooting (1-for-7 from behind the arc) with 6 rebounds and 6 assists. Kyrie Irving finally showed up for the 2024 NBA Finals, scoring a game-high 35 points.
However, Boston All-Stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown were too much for Dallas. Tatum scored 31 points, grabbed 6 rebounds, and dished 6 assists. Brown added 30 points with team highs in rebounds (8) and assists (8). The Celtics won Game 3 without Kristaps Porziņģis, who is dealing with a rare ankle injury, and I'm not expecting him to return for Game 4.
With or without Porziņģis, I'm feeling pretty good about my pre-NBA Finals bets: Boston -1.5 series spread at +100 odds and Brown to win the Bill Russell Award for NBA Finals MVP at +700, down to -280. Nonetheless, even if both bets hit, it's been an atrocious NBA betting season for me. Entering Game 4, my balance is -17.59 units (u).
NBA Game 4 Bet Slip: Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks
- 1.1u on OVER 211 (-110) at Caesars
- 1.1u on Celtics Moneyline (-110) at DraftKings
- 0.32u on Boston SF Jayson Tatum UNDER 27.5 Points (-105) at DraftKings
- 0.30u on Celtics C Al Horford OVER 18.5 "Player Combo" (+100) at FanDuel
Boston moneyline
I don't have much more to say than I've already written about this matchup. As I said before giving out the Celtics +2.5 for Game 3, people are having a tough time coming to grips with the finals being a sweep. That said, Dallas's defense isn't good enough to stop Boston from knocking down threes and the Celtics have four guys to defend Luka and Kyrie.
Moreover, Boston has been building a championship team for years while this is the Mavs' first full season with this squad. They acquired both starting bigs, C Daniel Gafford and PF P.J. Washington, at the trade deadline and still need to find shooters to surround Irving and Dončić. Lastly, the Celtics have four players who can play offense and defense and the Mavericks have none.
_____________________________
OVER 211
For Game 3, I accurately predicted a "pace melt". These teams had an average pace of 91.4 and Game 3 had a 90.3 pace. Yet, since this series is a wrap, Dallas will be in "F--- It" mode and Boston could take its foot off the gas. Meaning, the Mavericks could speed up the tempo to keep the Celtics from setting up their half-court defense.
Dallas Mavericks All-Star Luka Doncic complains after receiving his sixth foul in Game 3 of the 2024 NBA Finals vs. the Boston Celtics (Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports)
Also, if the Mavs are within a few possessions late, we could see Game 4 go Over the total on Boston free throws with Dallas trying to extend the game. The Mavericks, and Luka in particular, have spent a lot of time whining at the refs in the finals. Perhaps all that jawing will get them some "home cooking" from the refs in Game 4.
The first three games of the 2024 NBA Finals have gone Under the total by an average of 13.8 points per game (PPG). Hence, Game 4 might be the rare occasion the public bets an Under for a primetime game. Per Pregame.com, the bets are nearly split on the total, but roughly 85% of the cash is on the Over at 9 a.m. ET Friday. This may indicate sharp money is on the Over.
_____________________________
Boston SF Jayson Tatum UNDER 27.5 points
I pulled this move Wednesday when successfully betting the Under for Celtics PG Jrue Holiday's points prop after he scored a team-high 26 points in Game 2. With that in mind, Tatum put up a personal series-high 31 points in Game 3 and I'm betting he regresses Friday.
Boston Celtics SF Jayson Tatum shoots over Mavericks C Dereck Lively II in Game 3 of the 2024 NBA Finals at American Airlines Center in Dallas. (Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports)
Tatum averaged 26.9 PPG in the regular season and scored 28+ points in 31 of his 74 regular-season games. Plus, Tatum has gone Over 27.5 points in just six of 17 games this postseason. He's scored more than 28 points in back-to-back games once in these playoffs.
Furthermore, both his field goal and 3-point shooting percentages have fallen this postseason because he settles for too many contested, step-back threes. Finally, the Celtics don't need to run the offense through Tatum. Boston winning the first two games of the finals despite Tatum shooting poorly proves this.
_____________________________
Celtics C Al Horford OVER 18.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Horford doesn't have high usage in Boston's offense. He only had 15 "player combo" Wednesday: 8 points, 5 rebounds, and 2 assists. But, Al played 36:47 minutes in Game 3 since KP was hurt. During the regular season, Horford averaged 10.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 3.2 assists in 33 games as a starter, including both meetings with Dallas.
More importantly, he hustles his a-- off and has a chance to win his first NBA title, so I'm expecting a big effort from the 17-year veteran. Horford gets wide-open looks because he's the worst shooter in Boston's starting 5. Gafford and Mavericks backup rookie big Dereck Lively II are preoccupied with protecting the rim vs. Tatum and Brown.
Ultimately, Horford can get 3+ assists because the other four Celtics starters are good 3-point shooters, 6+ rebounds due to his height, and 10+ points between wide-open threes and putbacks on offensive rebounds.
_____________________________
Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NBA 2023-24 betting record via X all season.