NBA Finals 2023 Game 5 Props: Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry, KCP

It looks like the end of the road for the Miami Heat (1-3). Their season is on the brink as they head back to the Mile High City Monday for Game 5 of the 2023 NBA Finals against the Denver Nuggets (3-1).

After stealing Game 2 in Denver, the Heat lost both Games 3-4 at home. Nikola Jokic has been the best player in this series, which is no surprise. But, his teammate, PG Jamal Murray, has been the second best.

Denver Nuggets C Nikola Jokic and PG Jamal Murray high-five vs. the Heat during Game 4 of the 2023 NBA Finals at Kaseya Center in Miami. (Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images)

Honestly, player props are the only thing that I've gotten right in these NBA Finals. I whiffed betting on Miami's spread in Games 1 and 4 and hopped onto the Heat's adjusted series price after they lost the finals opener.

Over Games 3 and 4, I'm 5-1 in player props. My only loss was a bet on Miami big Bam Adebayo's 20.5 point prop in Game 4. And only lost by the hook when he only scored 20 points.

NBA Finals Game 5 Player Props

Denver Nuggets SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 7.5 Points

I'm using a player prop betting strategy that's been profitable thus far in the NBA Finals. The OVER for KCP's point prop is more expensive at Pinnacle Sportsbook while the Under is pricier at the legal U.S. sportsbooks.

This is my "odds cheat-code" angle. Pinnacle is considered the sharpest shop in town since it books the largest sports bets in the world. Well, Pinnacle is trying to steer its whale clientele toward the Under for KCP's point prop.

However, I have to sprinkle some basketball handicapping angles into this bet for it to make sense. First, KCP is the quintessential "role player" and role players usually perform better at home.

Nuggets SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope shoots a 3-pointer during Game 2 of the 2023 NBA Finals at the Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. (Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images)

During the regular season, Caldwell-Pope's true shooting rate was 61.1% (.474/.433/.806) at home compared to 58.5% on the road (.450/.413/.845). He scored eight and 20 points in two games vs. the Heat in the regular season.

KCP has scored fewer than eight points in all four NBA Finals games. But, in the first three rounds of the playoffs, Caldwell-Pope scored eight or more points in 12 of his 15 games this postseason.

BET: Nuggets SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope OVER 7.5 points (-110) at DraftKings

The Over for Denver Nuggets SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's point prop in Game 5 of the 2023 NBA Finals vs. the Miami Heat from DraftKings.

Miami Heat SF Jimmy Butler 26.5 points

This is another prop that DraftKings is "off market" on. There are a couple of legal U.S. sportsbooks that list Butler's point prop at 27.5. Also, Pinnacle makes the OVER for Butler's point prop more expensive.

It's clear that Butler is laboring through an ankle injury he sustained in the second round. But, his post-Game 4 press conference gives me confidence that we'll see Butler's best NBA Finals performance Monday.

Even though he scored just 25 points in Game 4, Butler had his most efficient offensive performance of the NBA Finals. Butler hit 52.9% of his shots (9-for-17), dished seven assists to just one turnover.

He only made 6-of-9 free throw attempts, which is weird considering Butler shot 85.0% from the foul line during the regular season and 80.6% in these playoffs.

The fact that Butler got to the charity stripe nine times in Game 4 backs up his point in the video that "We don't have no quit." Butler has scored 27+ points in 11 of 21 games this postseason including 28 in Game 3 of the finals.

BET: Heat SF Jimmy Butler OVER 26.5 points (-110) at DraftKings

The Over for Miami Heat SF Jimmy Butler's point prop in Game 5 of the 2023 NBA Finals vs. the Denver Nuggets from DraftKings.

Heat PG Kyle Lowry 9.5 points

I'm going with the dude sitting next to Butler and agreeing with him during the post-Game 4 press conference. Lowry has scored double digits in two games this series and nine points in each of the other two.

More importantly, Lowry is closing out these games for the Heat. Lowry has played the whole fourth quarter in two games during the finals. He has rested for just 1:42 of the 48:00 fourth-quarter minutes in this series.

Heat PG Kyle Lowry shoots a floater during Game 4 of the 2023 NBA Finals vs. the Nuggets at Kaseya Center. (Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images)

Lowry has the second-best offensive rating of any Heat player in the finals. He is behind backup SG Haywood Highsmith in offensive rating who has played just 32 minutes to Lowry's 111 minutes in the finals.

Plus, Lowry likes to get out in transition, which is where Denver's defense is vulnerable. He is also one of the biggest floppers in NBA history. Lowry got to the foul line six times in Game 4 and will up the flopping in this must-win if need be.

BET: Heat PG Kyle Lowry OVER 9.5 made points (+100) at DraftKings

The Over for Miami Heat PG Kyle Lowry's point prop in Game 5 of the 2023 NBA Finals vs. the Denver Nuggets from DraftKings.