NBA Festivus 'Locks' Include Ja Warrant's 3rd Game Back, Lakers-Thunder
The NBA takes a break for Christmas Eve but goes hard on Festivus (December 23rd). There’s a 13-game slate in the NBA Saturday and I’m well-rested after missing Friday with the illness that’s going around.
NBA Best Bets for Saturday
Memphis Grizzlies (-110) at Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 p.m. ET
The Grizzlies are a "bet on" team now that Ja Morant served his 25-game suspension for flashing guns on Instagram. They've won Ja's first two games back at the New Orleans Pelicans (115-113) Tuesday and versus the Indiana Pacers (116-103) Thursday.
Memphis is running its whole offense through Morant who's cooking. Ja is averaging 27.0 points on 47.5 percent shooting with 8.0 assists and 5.5 rebounds in his first two games. Morant and SG Desmond Bane are better than Atlanta guards Trae Young and Dejounte Murray.
Also, the Grizzlies can D up and the Hawks can't. Memphis is eighth in defensive rating and Atlanta is 27th. The Hawks have the second-worst defensive shot quality in the NBA, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Finally, Atlanta is playing the second of a back-to-back (B2B) after losing at the Miami Heat 122-113 Friday. The Hawks are 5-13 straight up (SU) and 6-12 against the spread (ATS) on the second leg of a B2B since 2022 and 1-4 ATS this season.
My prediction: Grizzlies 120, Hawks 115
Detroit Pistons (+10) at Brooklyn Nets, 7:30 p.m. ET
It's probably irresponsible to give out Detroit's spread considering the Pistons are on a 25-game losing skid. Every game is Detroit's Super Bowl until the losing streak is snapped. I won money backing the Pistons as +11.5 underdogs in a 130-124 loss at the Hawks Monday.
I'm going back to the well with Detroit because I like how it matches up with Brooklyn. The Pistons are second in both 3-point shots allowed per game and wide-open 3-point attempt rate (3PAr). "Wide-open" is when the 3-point shooter has at least six feet of distance from the nearest defender.
The Nets, like most NBA teams nowadays, live and die with the three. They are seventh in 3PAr and 3rd in 3-point shooting rate. Brooklyn has multiple lineups where all five players can shoot 3-pointers. If the Nets aren't hitting threes, they aren't covering as -10 favorites.
Furthermore, the Nets aren't playing well enough to be laying this big of a number. They are 1-6 SU and ATS over the past two weeks. Brooklyn is 28th in non-garbage time net rating and -7.4 in ATS margin over that span, according to CTG.
Lastly, I just have a hunch the Pistons snap their losing skid Saturday. Call it a "Christmas miracle" but Detroit's moneyline has value here. As a native New Yorker, take it from me, the Nets are cursed. If there's any team that would lose to the Pistons, it's the Nets.
My prediction: Pistons 116, Nets 113
Los Angeles Lakers at Oklahoma City Thunder (-3), 8 p.m. ET
This is LAL's fourth game in six nights and they host the Boston Celtics Christmas. LeBron James and Anthony Davis are always on the injury report. So it wouldn't be surprising if either took an off-night Saturday.
More importantly, the Thunder beat the brakes off of the Lakers 133-110 in OKC November 30th. LeBron and AD played and Oklahoma City outperformed LAL in three of the "four factors". Thunder All-Star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 33 points on 11-of-18 shooting.
Thunder All-Star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shoots a jumper against the Los Angeles Lakers at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. (Joshua Gateley/Getty Images)
This spread almost feels like a trap line because the Thunder are way better. DunksAndThrees.com accounts for strength of schedule and that site says OKC has a +5.2 adjusted net rating and LAL is +0.1. When you give the Thunder a boost for home-court, they should be at least -6 favorites.
Regardless, I'm going to take the bait. Oklahoma City is seventh in fastbreak points per game (PPG) and the Lakers are 24th in fastbreak PPG allowed. The Thunder scores the most points off of turnovers while LAL is 23rd in points off of turnovers allowed per game.