NBA Eastern Conference Play-In Best Bets For Wednesday: Heat-76ers, Hawks-Bulls

Now that the postseason is here, I'm jacked up about gambling on NBA basketball. I cashed both best bets in the 1st round of the Western Conference's 2024 SoFi NBA Play-in Tournament and extended my NBA winning streak to nine games. This heater comes at the perfect time considering how awful my regular season was from a betting perspective. 

With that in mind, I'm betting on both the Eastern Conference's NBA Play-In Tournament games Wednesday. Remember, the winner of the 7-seed Philadelphia Sixers and 8-seed Miami Heat game will host the winner of the 9-seed Chicago Bulls and 10-seed Atlanta Hawks contest Friday. 

NBA Eastern Conference Play-In Best Bets For Wednesday

The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.

Miami Heat (+5.5) at Philadelphia 76ers, 7 p.m. ET

These teams split their regular-season series 2-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS). Granted, those are "noisy" results because both teams dealt with injuries all season. Miami’s Jimmy Butler and Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid only played in one Heat-76ers meeting this season, April 4th. The Sixers won 109-105 in Miami as +2.5 road underdogs. Embiid and 76ers All-Star Tyrese Maxey combined for 66 points. 

However, Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra is one of the best defensive minds in the NBA and the Heat do a better job defending Embiid than most. Joel is averaging just 22.7 points per game (PPG) in 10 games against the Heat over the last three seasons, including the 2022 NBA Playoffs when Miami upset Philly 4-2 in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. 

Philadelphia 76ers C Joel Embiid and Miami Heat SF Jimmy Butler battle for position at Wells Fargo Center. (Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports)

Furthermore, the Heat was missing SG Tyler Herro, their 2nd-leading scorer and best offensive player. Having Herro back in the fold takes the pressure off of Butler offensively and allows him to focus his energy on clutch time. More importantly, this spread is getting too high. Philadelphia opened as -4.5 favorites, but it’s up to -5.5 at DraftKings and FanDuel. 

Even casual NBA fans know Miami gets up for big games against tough teams. Since 2022, the Heat are 26-17 ATS as road underdogs vs. teams with a winning record and 24-17 as underdogs of +5 or greater. Because Miami is frequently banged up, it plays better on extended rest. The Heat are 11-4 SU and 9-6 ATS with a +6.5 ATS margin in games after more than one rest day.

Bet 1.1u on the Heat +5.5 (-110) at FanDuel. Give me Miami down to +5. 

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Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls, 9:30 p.m. ET 

Despite everyone in the sports betting space picking the Bulls, which is scary, I'll put my money where my mouth is and fade the Hawks. I've been saying for years that Atlanta is better without All-Star PG Trae Young. The Hawks are 22-32 SU in games Trae plays, including three straight to end the regular season. Young has a -2.2 on/off net rating, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Also, Trae is a defensive liability. Atlanta is 27th in defensive rating for the season and Chicago is 10th in non-garbage time offensive rating since March 1st, according to CTG. Over that span, the Bulls are 7-2 SU vs. bottom-10 defenses with a +3.8 spread differential. Atlanta has the worst wide-open defensive 3-point attempt rate post-All-Star break. 

Chicago Bulls SF DeMar DeRozan dribbles attacks the paint on Atlanta Hawks SF AJ Griffin at the United Center in Illinois. (Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports)

Both teams run a lot of pick-and-roll (PnR) action through their ball handlers. That said, Chicago is more efficient in PnR action at both ends of the floor. The Bulls play good PnR defense because guard Alex Caruso is one of the best on-ball defenders in the NBA. They can throw Caruso at Trae. Whereas the Hawks don't have anyone to defend Bulls SF, and leading scorer, DeMar DeRozan.  

Finally, by listing Chicago as -3 favorites, the sportsbooks project this as a one-possession game. I like the Bulls even more because these teams perform at opposite ends of the spectrum in tight games. Chicago has the 2nd-best "clutch time" net rating (+24.5) and Atlanta is 26th (-12.8). "Clutch time" is when there is a 5-point margin with five minutes or less to play. 

Bet 1.1u on Chicago -3 (-110) at FanDuel. The Bulls are playable up to -4. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my NBA 2023-24 betting record via X all season.