NBA Christmas 2023 Gambling Preview: Best Bets For All 5 Games
For casual or non-basketball fans, Christmas is the first day they watch the NBA. This is the 16th straight Christmas with five NBA games. As an "NBA guy," Christmas is my favorite sports betting holiday. With that in mind, I come bearing gifts ...
NBA Christmas 2023 Best Bets
Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks (+3.5), noon ET
Milwaukee is going for the season-series sweep of NYK on Monday. The Bucks beat the Knicks 110-105 in November then crushed New York 146-122 in an NBA In-Season Tournament quarterfinal game. Both of those were in Milwaukee.
Bucks-Knicks played the frontend of a back-to-back (B2B) Saturday at the Garden and Milwaukee smashed NYK 130-111. The Bucks covered as -2.5 favorites on Festivus so them being just -3/-3.5 is a bit surprising. I'm expecting money to come pouring in on Milwaukee on Christmas morning.
But, if you follow basketball then you'll know how hard it is to beat the same team in consecutive games. Head coaches make adjustments and typically split these B2Bs. This is called the zig-zag theory, which is more applicable to playoff series.
Milwaukee Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo shoots a baby hook over New York Knicks PF Julius Randle at Madison Square Garden. (Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports)
Well, I'm using the zig-zag theory to take the points with the Knicks. They beat the Bucks in the battle of possessions Saturday (turnover and rebounding rates) yet Milwaukee hit 50.0% of its 3s (16-of-32).
The Knicks hit just nine 3-pointers Saturday. That said, they shoot 39.% from behind the arc at home. Knicks PG Jalen Brunson scored 36 points and Julius Randle added an efficient 26.
NYK's bench only made one 3-pointer on Festivus and, usually, role players perform better at home. If Knicks wing Josh Hart and/or combo guard Immanuel Quickley can help Brunson and Randle out, New York can win Christmas.
My prediction: Knicks 119, Bucks 116
Golden State Warriors (+6.5) at Denver Nuggets, 2:30 p.m. ET
I'm about-facing my pick from the OutKick Bets Podcast's NBA Christmas 2023 Betting Preview episode. I was on Denver based on straightforward reasons but I have a hunch Golden State covers Monday.
The Nuggets were -4.5 home favorites in their first meeting with the Warriors this season Nov. 8th. Denver was missing PG Jamal Murray and Golden State didn't have PF Draymond Green. Typically, I'd fade the Dubs without Draymond but they have been playing well without him.
Green has been out since Dec. 14. After losing their 1st game without Draymond, the Warriors are on a five-game winning streak with an upset win over the Boston Celtics on Tuesday. The Splash Brothers are ballin' with Green out, especially Klay Thompson
Nuggets All-Star Nikola Jokic defends Golden State Warriors' legend Klay Thompson at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. (AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)
Over the last six games, Klay is averaging 25.7 points on 52.9% shooting (50.0% from 3-point land). Speaking of which, I do not hate betting Thompson props. Steph Curry is doing his thing as well, scoring 25.2 points during that stretch on 41.7% from deep.
Furthermore, Warriors forwards Trayce Jackson-Davis and Jonathan Kuminga are making up for Draymond's absence. Jackson-Davis has a +21.4 on/off net rating, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), and Kuminga is shooting 61.1% from the field over the last six games.
Lastly, if there was a one team that won't be shook by visiting the reigning NBA champions with the best player in the world, on Christmas, it's Golden State. Casual NBA fans are going to see Draymond out and hammer the Nuggets. Let's fade that logic and take the points with the Warriors.
My prediction: Nuggets 117, Warriors 114
UNDER 234.5 in Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Lakers, 5 p.m. ET
The public is going to hammer the Over in the NBA's biggest primetime game of the regular season. These teams have gone Over the total in three consecutive games and Los Angeles is 1-6 Over/Under (O/U) in the last seven. Both Celtics-Lakers meetings last season went Over their totals by an average of 7.3 points per game (PPG).
However, this feels like a great spot to fade the public and obvious O/U trends. The Lakers replaced PG D'Angelo Russell with forward Jarred Vanderbilt in the starting 5 to improve their defense.
LISTEN to the OutKick Bets Podcast: NBA Christmas 2023 Betting Preview Featuring David Troy
Vanderbilt is an athletic wing who can defend ball-handlers and bigs. The Celtics has the highest 3-point attempt rate (3PAr) in the NBA and hits the most threes per game. Vanderbilt's length is going to help the Lakers close out on Boston's 3-pointers.
The Celtics score 5.7 fewer PPG on the road. Their effective field goal shooting (eFG%) falls from 59.7% to 54.5%. The Lakers allow nearly 15 fewer PPG at home. LA's defensive eFG% goes from 56.3% on the road to 50.4% in their home gym.
LeBron James and Boston Celtics All-Star Jayson Tatum face each other at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. (Harry How/Getty Images)
Also, Boston doesn't gamble on defense. The Celtics are third in non-garbage time defensive rating, per CTG but 27th in defensive turnover rate. They are 5th in defensive rebounding rate so the Lakers won't get a lot of second-chance points. In fact, LA is 30th in second-chance PPG.
Boston and Los Angeles have the two-best defensive free-throw attempt rates in the NBA, per CTG, so there shouldn't be a lot of freebies in this game. For what it's worth, I lean to the Celtics covering as -3 favorites. If both teams play their best games Christmas, Boston wins by more than 3 points 70+% of the time.
My prediction: Celtics 115, Lakers 110
OVER 225.5 in Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat, 8 p.m. ET
Last season, 217.5 was the average total for the three 76ers-Heat meetings. This one is nine points higher because these teams are much different from last season's versions. Philly gets out in transition more under head coach Nick Nurse and Miami is back to being a good 3-point shooting team.
The Sixers are fourth in fastbreak PPG and the Heat are 24th in fastbreak defensive efficiency, per CTG. Miami flip-flops from being a good to bad 3-point shooting team every other season. The Heat lead the NBA in 3-point percentage as of Christmas.
Philadelphia 76er combo guard Tyrese Maxey Philadelphia drives to the hoop on Heat big Bam Adebayo at Kaseya Center in Miami. (Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
Plus, Philadelphia averages 120.5 PPG at home and 126.1 PPG so far in December. While Miami is scoring 6.5 more PPG at home and shoots 40.7% from behind the arc. Heat All-Star Jimmy Butler missed practice Christmas Eve and is "questionable" for Monday.
On paper, Butler's absence hurts the Over. But, in reality, it could help it. Butler slows down the tempo with iso-ball. Without Butler on the floor, the Heat might chuck more threes. If he does play, Miami's offensive free-throw attempt rate improves, which would help the Over.
Immediately after finishing this breakdown, the 76ers announced Joel Embiid will miss Christmas with a sprained ankle. I'm going through with my bet on the OVER 225.5. This situation is similar to the Butler injury above in that Embiid's absence "could" hurt Philly's defense more than the offense.
My prediction: Sixers 117, Heat 114
Dallas Mavericks (+5) at Phoenix Suns, 10:30 p.m. ET
We are 28 games through their season and, by all measures, the Suns are an average team. Phoenix is 14-14 SU, 10-17-1 ATS, and 16th in net rating. Due to injuries, the Suns don't have a lot of continuity and SG Bradley Beal is out with an injury.
The Suns are 3-7 SU and 1-9 ATS over their last 10 games. Their three wins were against the god-awful Washington Wizards, the Warriors when Draymond punched Phoenix big Jusuf Nurkic in the head, and the Memphis Grizzlies without Ja Morant.
Dallas Mavericks All-Star Luka Doncic sizes up Suns SG Devin Booker at the Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona. (Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
Everyone in Dallas knows their roles. I.e. the offense runs through Luka Doncic. In December, Luka is averaging 36.0 PPG on 47.8% shooting with 11.3 assists and 9.5 rebounds. Also, we all remember Doncic destroying Phoenix in the 2022 NBA playoffs.
Finally, the Mavs will be able to control the flow of this game. They have a strength-on-weakness edge over the Suns in ball security. Dallas leads the NBA in turnover rate (TOV%), per CTG. Phoenix is 23rd in offensive TOV% and 25th defensively.