NBA Betting 3-Pack Tuesday Has 2 Sides, 1 Player Prop
It's "comeback season" for ya boy in the NBA. At least that's what I'm telling myself after cashing both bets Monday. Last week, which included a 7-game losing skid over the weekend, was pretty much an all-time low for me betting the NBA. My short-term goal is to get even by the NBA 2024 All-Star break (Feb. 16-18th). This is doable, but I need to go on a heater, starting with three …
NBA Tuesday Winning Wagers
- The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Utah Jazz (+3), 9 p.m. ET
OKC has won its 1st two meetings with Utah, one at home (134-20 Dec. 11th) and one in Salt Lake City (134-129 Jan. 18th). However, the Thunder had spread margins of +1 and +2 in those two games. Plus, the Jazz out-performed the Thunder in three of the "four factors" in their most recent meeting.
Adding to that, Oklahoma City's 11:30 a.m. ET injury report scrolls it's so long whereas the Jazz are at full-strength. The Thunder have four rotation players listed as "questionable" including starting PF Jalen Williams. J-Dub scored 27 points on 11-of-16 shooting in Utah Jan. 18th and led OKC with a +16.
(Chris Nicoll - USA TODAY Sports)
More importantly, the Jazz are 8-6 SU as home underdogs and 10-4 against the spread with a +7.5 spread differential. Lastly, Utah has a strength-on-weakness edge over Oklahoma City on the glass. The Jazz are 2nd in offensive rebounding rate and lead the NBA in second-chance points per game (PPG). The Thunder are 29th in both defensive rebounding rate and second-chance PPG allowed.
BET 1.1u on Utah +3 (-108) at DraftKings Sportsbook. Gimme the Jazz down to +1.5.
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Milwaukee Bucks at Phoenix Suns (-3.5), 10 p.m. ET
This is a rematch of the 2021 NBA Finals that the Bucks won 4-2. But, there isn’t a lot of info to glean from that matchup, since both the Suns and Bucks are different teams now. Each has different coaches. The Suns revamped its roster by adding Kevin Durant last year and Bradley Beal this offseason and the Bucks traded former PG Jrue Holiday for PG Damian Lillard.
Anyhow, Phoenix is in better form and Milwaukee’s record is misleading. According to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), the Suns have a higher non-garbage time net rating. Since Jan. 1st, Phoenix is 12-6 straight up (SU) with a +9.3 net rating and a +2.2 spread differential, per CTG. While the Bucks are 9-9 SU with a -0.4 net rating and a -6.2 spread differential.
(Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports)
They have a +3.4 win differential and a -2.7 spread differential. Milwaukee’s win differential ranks 4th in the NBA and the spread differential is 28th. The "+3.4 win differential" essentially means the Bucks should have 3.4 fewer wins based on their net efficiency. The "-2.7 spread differential" hammers home that they are underperforming expectations.
Also, this is a "scheduled loss" for Milwaukee, which may be without two starters Tuesday. The Bucks are playing their 3rd road game in the past four nights. Both Lillard and C Brook Lopez are "questionable" for Thursday as well.
Finally, this was a Pros vs. Joe’s game in the betting market early Tuesday morning. According to Pregame.com, more than 80% of the bets are on Milwaukee, but a slight majority of the money is on Phoenix. Typically, you want to follow the money when it’s counter to the public since professional bettors place larger wagers.
BET 1.1u on Phoenix -3.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook. The Suns are playable up to -5.
Last thing here; I have a player prop for Bucks-Suns. This is a revenge game for Phoenix SG Grayson Allen who played for the Bucks from 2021-23. Allen leads the NBA in 3-point shooting at 49.1% and is averaging a career-best 13.0 PPG. His true shooting rate goes from 66.5% on the road to 72.3% at home.
Yet, Allen’s assists increase at home, too. He averages 3.2 assists per game in Phoenix compared to just 2.5 assists on the road. Allen has dished at least 3 assists in 28 of his 44 games this season and 18 of his 22 home games.
(Joe Camporeale - USA TODAY Sports)
Between Phoenix’s Big 3 and Suns starting C Jusuf Nurkic, Allen has a bunch of teammates that can score off of his passes. His lethal shooting will cause the Bucks to lose their men in defensive rotations if Allen is left open.
BET 0.53u on Suns SG Grayson Allen OVER 2.5 Assists (-105) at DraftKings Sportsbook. Allen's assist-prop is bet-able up to -125.
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