Three NBA Picks Wednesday From An Ice-Cold Analyst Searching For Answers

Indulge me for a hot minute while I b*tch about my 1-2 in the NBA on Tuesday. I had the Boston Celtics -5 over the Cleveland Cavaliers, Memphis Grizzlies -6 over the Denver Nuggets, and Over 13.5 points for Nuggets SG Christian Braun. Denver crushed Memphis 122-110, which is a bad read I can live with, and Braun scored 19 points. 

But, Boston failing to cover in a 120-117 win vs. Cleveland gave me trouble sleeping last night, and it's a microcosm of my NBA betting season thus far. The Celtics had a 21-point lead in the third quarter, made 22 3-pointers, All-Stars Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum missed free throws with 30 seconds left and the Cavs hit a meaningless 2-pointer as time expired. 

As a result of my recent bad beats, I'm switching things up for the near future. Firstly, I'm betting underdogs for a little while because NBA games are too random with all the 3-point shooting and teams cannot hold leads. Plus, if the team I bet is up double digits at halftime or in the second half, I'll bet the other team for a "middle" or a "hedge".  

NBA Betting Card for November 20: 

• OVER 231.5 (-110) in the Indiana Pacers vs. Houston Rockets at DraftKings, risking 1.1 units (u).
• Portland Trail Blazers +12 (-110) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder at FanDuel, risking 1.1u.
• Atlanta Hawks +8 (-108) vs. Golden State Warriors at DraftKings, risking 1.08u.

OVER 231.5 in Pacers at Rockets, 8 p.m. ET

Last season, the two Pacers-Rockets meetings had totals of 240.5 and 245, respectively, and Indiana won both. Their first meeting went Under the total by a half-point with Indy winning 123-117. The second soared Over the total with the Pacers winning 132-129. 

There are reasons to like both offenses Wednesday. Indiana is seventh in true shooting rate, which accounts for 2-point, 3-point, and free-throw shooting. The Rockets make up for their poor shooting with hustle: Houston is fourth in points off of turnovers per game, second in second-chance points per game (PPG), and fourth in fastbreak PPG. 

Indiana Pacers All-Star PG Tyrese Haliburton shoots over Houston Rockets PF Jabari Smith Jr. at Toyota Center. (Erik Williams-Imagn Images)

Furthermore, the Rockets get out in transition at the fourth-highest rate in the NBA, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), and the Pacers have the fourth-worst fastbreak defensive efficiency. Since Indiana is 26th in defensive rating, the Pacers will be okay with speeding up the tempo in Houston Wednesday. 

Lastly, the Pacers are 10-4 Over/Under (O/U) this season and 25-16 O/U vs. totals less than 235 points since 2023. The Rockets are 8-3-1 O/U as -3.5 to -7 favorites with a +7.7 O/U margin over that span. 

Prediction: Houston 124, Indiana 117

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Trail Blazers (+12) at Thunder, 8 p.m. ET

Oklahoma City's three bigs are hurt, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Jaylin Williams. Plus, the Thunder are playing the second of a back-to-back after losing to the San Antonio Spurs 110-104 Tuesday, while the Trail Blazers have been off the past two days. Hence, a well-rested Portland team could be a tough matchup for OKC Wednesday. 

The Trail Blazers attack the basket relentlessly and have the highest rate of shots at the rim, per CTG. Portland is fifth in second-chance PPG and Oklahoma City allows the most second-chance PPG on defense. Also, this is a weird travel spot for the Thunder, who returned home after playing in San Antonio last night. 

Portland Trail Blazers C Deandre Ayton takes a baby hook against the Oklahoma City Thunder at Moda Center. (Brian Murphy-Imagn Images)

However, OKC had a six-game homestand before its game vs. the Spurs. Following Wednesday's game with the Blazers, the Thunder go on a four-game road trip vs. teams with a winning record, such as the Sacramento Kings, Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Lakers, and Rockets. Ultimately, the Trail Blazers will care more about this game than the Thunder. 

Prediction: Oklahoma City 117, Portland 108 

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Hawks (+8.5) at Warriors, 10 p.m. ET

Besides All-Star Trae Young, I like Atlanta's roster. The Hawks have eight players averaging 10+ PPG, including the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, forward Zaccharie Risacher. Wing De'Andre Hunter and SG Bogdan Bogdanović returned from injuries in Atlanta's 109-108 win over the Kings Monday. 

Hunter leads the team with a +14.7 on/off net rating and Bogdanović is a perennial Sixth Man of the Year candidate. Atlanta SG Dyson Daniels is one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA and leads the Association with 3.4 steals per game. Daniels might be the best guy you could ask to defend Steph Curry. 

Moreover, the Hawks have two strength-on-weakness edges on the offensive boards and getting the foul line. Atlanta is ninth in second-chance PPG and Golden State is 27th in second-chance PPG allowed. The Hawks are fourth in offensive FT/FGA rate and the Warriors are 24th defensively. 

This is too big of a number for Golden State to be favored. Young is 3-2 straight up (SU) in his career vs. Curry and the Hawks are 6-5 SU and 7-4 against the spread (ATS) vs. the Warriors since Young's rookie season (2018-19). Finally, since last season, the Warriors are 13-24 ATS as home favorites. 

Prediction: Golden State 122, Atlanta 117 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.