NBA Best Bets Thursday Include Ja 'Wicks' 2nd Game Back
Well, from a betting perspective, Wednesday stunk in the NBA. I got all excited about my recent winning ways and was quickly humbled by a 1-2 result Wednesday. That's how it works for me pretty much every time I run my mouth.
Now, I need winning night in the Association to avoid falling back into the hole. In order to do, I'm making some square plays and backing three home favorites with my ...
NBA Best Bets for Thursday
Indiana Pacers at Memphis Grizzlies (-135), 8 p.m. ET
The FedExForum in Memphis is going to be rocking Thursday. It’s Ja Morant’s 1st home game this season and the Grizzlies have sucked without Ja. They won his debut at the New Orleans Pelicans 115-113 Tuesday and Morant tore them apart.
Ja scored a team-high 34 points on 50.0% shooting with 8 assists, 6 rebounds, and 2 steals. It took Morant a little while to get his feet under him. In the 2nd half, Ja erupted for 27 points and hit a game-winning buzzer-beating layup.
Memphis is a -4.5 favorite over a plucky 14-12 Pacers team that played in the inaugural NBA In-Season Tournament. This is the 2nd-most points the Grizzlies have laid in a game behind the god-awful Utah Jazz November 11th.
So the question is “Has the market overcorrected?” My answer to that question is “No." I took the points with the Grizzlies Tuesday and sprinkled on their moneyline because one player matters in basketball.
JA MORANT IS BACK, HOPEFULLY FOR GOOD THIS TIME
They rallied back from a 24-point deficit to steal that game. Like him or not, Morant unquestionably rejuvenated Memphis. There was a pep in their step. The Grizzlies were crashing the glass and hustling for loose balls.
Morant’s teammate, PF Jaren Jackson Jr., is the 3rd-best player in this game behind Ja and Indiana PG Tyrese Haliburton. Jackson is the reigning NBA Defensive Player of the Year.
Memphis Grizzlies All-Star Ja Morant is 'feeling it" against the Pelicans at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Chris Graythen/Getty Images)
He is a major reason why Pelicans All-Star Zion Williamson only scored 13 points vs. the Grizzlies Tuesday. Memphis is 9th in defensive rating and Jackson is the anchor of that defense.
Also, with all due respect to Haliburton, Morant is the best player on the floor. Ja is going to be fully motivated for this matchup with Haliburton. These are two of the premier young players in the NBA. Both probably consider themselves the best point guard in the Association.
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But, since the Pacers cannot play defense, Morant will get whatever he wants Tuesday. Ja lives in the paint and has the best floater in the NBA. Indiana ranks 28th in defensive field goal percentage vs. all mid-range shots and 26th against short-mid-range jumpers, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
My prediction: Grizzlies 125, Pacers 119
Los Angeles Lakers at Minnesota Timberwolves (-6.5), 8 p.m. ET
What sucks is everything I'm about to write is subject to change. Neither the Lakers nor the T-Wolves have submitted their injury reports as of the 10:30 a.m. ET NBA release. However, both are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back (B2B) and LAL's defense is garbage in these spots.
The Lakers are 10-2 Over/Under (O/U) on the road in the 2nd-leg of a B2B since 2022, including 3-0 O/U this season. They got waxed 124-108 at the Chicago Bulls Wednesday. LAL is allowing 125.8 points per game (PPG) in those 12 games and 15.1 MORE PPG on the road this season.
ARE THE LAKERS LAME FOR HANGING A BANNER FOR WINNING THE IN-SEASON TOURNAMENT?
More importantly, the Lakers are 2-3 straight up (SU) but 0-5 against the spread (ATS) on the 2nd of a B2B. According to CTG, the Lakers are 26th in non-garbage time offensive rating with a -7.2 spread differential.
Plus, the Timberwolves are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at home vs. teams in the 2nd of a B2B. Per CTG, they have a +10.8 non-garbage time net rating in those games. Two of those four wins came against other veteran squads such as the Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers.
Timberwolves wing Anthony Edwards attacks the basket with Los Angeles Lakers' LeBron James at Target Center in Minneapolis. (David Berding/Getty Images)
Granted, this might not be 100% applicable since Minnesota lost in Philadelphia 127-113 Wednesday. But, that was the T-Wolves' 6th loss this season. They responded with victories after the 1st five losses and are 4-1 ATS in those contests with a +11.2 spread differential.
Minnesota has too much size for Lakers All-Star Anthony Davis to deal with, mostly by himself. T-Wolves bigs Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns are awesome in different ways. Gobert is the best defensive center in the NBA and KAT is shooting 50/40/90 this season.
Finally, even though Timberwolves wing Anthony Edwards plays better in his home gym. Ant-Man averages 27.5 PPG at home with a 61.0% true shooting compared to 22.2 PPG on 52.5% true shooting on the road.
My prediction: Timberwolves 117, Lakers 105
Washington Wizards at Portland Trail Blazers (-4), 10 p.m. ET
The Wizards are a legitimately bad team whereas the Trail Blazers are probably bad. Meaning, I like Portland’s roster and think Washington’s roster is trash. This is the 2nd game the Trail Blazers have been favored in all season.
I’ve bet the Blazers in their last two games because they have several key players back in action. Dudes like SG Anfernee Simons (Portland’s leading scorer), wing Jerami Grant (Portland’s 2nd-leading scorer), C Deandre Ayton, and PG Malcolm Brogdon.
Trail Blazers wing Jerami Grant and Blaze the Trail Cat take a pic after an NBA game vs. the Phoenix Suns at the Moda Center in Portland, Oregon. (Alika Jenner/Getty Images)
The Trail Blazers beat the Suns 109-104 at home in a great comeback win. Simons, Grant, Ayton, and Brogdon, in that order, led Portland in scoring. Now, that the Trail Blazers are closer to full strength, it's a team I want to back.
Portland SG Shaedon Sharpe will miss Thursday's game with a groin injury. However, Trail Blazers rookie PG, and 2nd pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, Scoot Henderson has been playing better this month. And Sharpe has a -7.7 on/off net rating, per CTG.