Two Irresponsible NBA Bets A Day Before The All-Star Break

Feel free to skip or fade the NBA bets below. "Skip" because the NBA All-Star break starts Friday and a bunch of players will likely sit. Plus, every team played on Wednesday, and we know about the long-term health ramifications of playing basketball for two straight days. (Sarcasm). "Fade" because I'm lighting money on fire while betting on the NBA this season (see below). 

I, like most NBA players, should take Thursday off. Yet, unlike them, I enjoy my job (sports betting writer) and want to keep working. That said, there isn't a lot of work right now. Football season is over. Pitchers and catchers are reporting for MLB Spring Training. Thursday's college basketball slate is weak. Heck, the NHL is off for this "4 Nations Face-Off" event. 

Nevertheless, beggars can't be choosers and I need to gamble on something today. So, ignore that uninspiring introduction, and let's dive into my NBA bets for Thursday. 

NBA Betting Card for February 13

• New Orleans Pelicans +8 (-108) vs. Sacramento Kings via DraftKings, risking 1.08 units (u).
• Miami Heat -115 moneyline at Dallas Mavericks via Caesars Sportsbook, risking 1.15u.

Kings at Pelicans (+8), 8 p.m. ET

This is a "Don't try this at home" bet because New Orleans uses more PTO than any NBA team. Pelicans sh*t-bird (my old coworker's term for someone who doesn't work hard) Zion Williamson was on NOLA's injury report Wednesday for "reconditioning." Which is an effing joke considering it's the middle of February. 

Is there a timetable for when Zion, a professional athlete, will be in shape? I mean we are five months into the season. This would be like skipping class in college a day before the midterms to go buy the textbook. A- Why don't you have the textbook already? B- How does playing hooky help you get a better grade? 

Regardless, I'm willing to gamble on New Orleans Thursday, despite it most likely missing starters, because this is the second of a Kings-Pelicans back-to-back, and it's hard to beat the same team consecutively in basketball. Sacramento won the first, 119-111, Wednesday, so I'm using the "zigzag theory" handicapping angle.

New Orleans Pelicans C Yves Missi shoots a floater over the Sacramento Kings at Smoothie King Center. (Photo credit: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images)

Granted, Sactown closed as a -6 favorite Wednesday, implying that Zion, and perhaps others, will sit Thursday. But, the Kings have maybe one good defensive player on their roster. They acquired SG Zach LaVine at the trade deadline (bad defender), adding him to a starting 5 with SF DeMar DeRozan (another bad defender) and big Domantas Sabonis (an awful defender). 

Sacramento had a two-point lead with less than 6:00 remaining in the fourth quarter Wednesday, so it's not like New Orleans got blown out. The Kings hit twice as many 3-pointers (16-8), with backup SG Keon Ellis hitting 7-of-11 from deep. I.e., if NOLA hits more 3-pointers Wednesday, and Sactown's perimeter defense sucks, the Pelicans should cover or win outright. 

Prediction: New Orleans 122, Sacramento 118

• Since this is a "Don't Try This At Home" bet, wait until the final starting 5's are announced before making a wager. But, for content purposes, I have to lock in a "Pelicans +8" bet upon publishing. 

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Heat (-115) at Mavericks, 8:30 p.m. ET

Even though no NBA team has released an official injury report as of 12:30 p.m. ET, we can count on Dallas missing four bigs: Anthony Davis, Daniel Gafford, Dereck Lively II, and Dwight Powell. Whereas Miami PF Bam Adebayo has missed just one game this season and rookie C Kel'el Ware has played every game since December 21. 

Dallas Mavericks SG Kyrie Irving and Miami Heat big Bam Adebayo fighting for a loose ball at Kaseya Center in Florida. (Photo credit: Rhona Wise-Imagn Images)

Dallas is adjusting to life after Luka Dončić. Albeit, the Heat traded Jimmy Butler last week, and they are playing worse than the Mavs currently. However, Gafford, Luka, and Lively rank second, third, and fourth in PER on the Mavericks, in that order, behind AD, who has played only one game. 

With that in mind, I trust Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra can exploit an injury-ravaged Mavericks squad. Coach Spo is one of the best in the business and Bam is the best non-Victor Wembanyama defender in basketball. It'll be easier for Adebayo to play help defense on Kyrie Irving considering the Mavericks won't have NBA-caliber bigs on the floor. 

Prediction: Miami 113, Dallas 109

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