Bet These Two Totals In The NBA Thursday: Pistons Vs. Celtics, Raptors Vs. Heat

I got robbed of going 2-for-2 in my best bets for the 2024 Emirates NBA Cup Wednesday. My Under 237.5 look in the Hawks-Knicks was a rocking-chair cover as Atlanta upset New York 108-100. Then my Warriors moneyline bet lost due to a garbage call at the end of Golden State's 91-90 loss at the Houston Rockets. It was so bad that Warriors coach Steve Kerr got off his political soapbox to rip the refs in his postgame press conference. 

NBA Picks for Thursday, December 12

• OVER 227 (-105) in Detroit Pistons at Boston Celtics via Caesars Sportsbook, risking 1.05 units (u).
• OVER 224.5 (-110) in Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat via DraftKings, risking 1.1u.

OVER 227 in Pistons (10-15) at Celtics (19-5), 7:30 p.m. ET

Since 2022, Boston is 55-39-1 Over/Under (O/U) at home in the regular season. The Celtics are 24-15 O/U with a +4.2 O/U margin as double-digit favorites and 44-19 O/U with a +6.9 O/U margin in games on totals less than 230 over that span. Detroit has weird home-road splits and shoots 72 percentage points better from 3-point range in away games (39.4-32.2%). 

Five of the last six Pistons-Celtics meetings have gone Over the total, including both this season, and they flew Over the total. Boston won both: 124-18 in Detroit October 26 and 130-120 at home December 4. These teams have scored six 59-plus-point quarters in those games. Celtics PG Jrue Holiday and All-Star Jayson Tatum didn't play in their latter meeting. 

Detroit Pistons SG Jaden Ivey shoots a 3-pointer over Boston Celtics SG Derrick White at the TD Garden. (Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images)

Holiday isn't on Boston's injury report for this game and Tatum is questionable. While Tatum is the Celtics' leading scorer, he is more important to their defense this season. Boston's effective field goal shooting (eFG%) falls by 3.3% with Tatum on the floor and its defensive eFG% improves by 6.2%, according to CleaningTheGlass.com. 

Detroit has cashed the Over in three straight games and seven of the past nine. The Celtics lead the NBA in 3-pointers per game this month and the Pistons are fifth, albeit in five and three games, respectively. Finally, Boston 39.6% from behind the arc December 4 vs. Detroit, which hit 51.3% of its 3-pointers, and they combined for 41 threes that night.  

Prediction: Boston 122, Detroit 111 

• Get this bet in ASAP. The public likes to bet Overs and this total will probably increase as the tip-off gets closer, especially if Tatum plays. I already locked in my bet via X to "get the best number". Pinnacle Sportsbook, a "market-making shop" offshore, has this total at 227.5. Eventually, the major legal U.S. sportsbooks will copy Pinnacle.

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OVER 224.5 in Raptors (7-18) at Heat (12-10), 7:30 p.m. ET

Toronto's second-leading scorer, and leader in assists per game, All-Star Scottie Barnes is out for at least the next week. Barnes missed 11 games from October 30 to November 18. Over that span, the Raptors and opponents combined for 236.2 points per game (PPG). Remarkably, Toronto's foes shot just 32.4% from 3-point range while scoring 119.2 PPG. 

Furthermore, the officiating crew assigned to the Raptors-Heat contest has a combined 25-15 O/U record, 62.5% to the Over. All three referees' games average at least 228.3 PPG. Besides pace and shooting (obviously), officiating is the most important aspect of betting totals. Especially here because free-throw margin is Miami's strength and Toronto's weakness. 

Miami Heat SG Tyler Herro chucking a 3-pointer vs. the Toronto Raptors in the 2024 NBA Cup at Kaseya Center. (Jim Rassol-Imagn Images)

Also, the Heat are becoming SG Tyler Herro's team. Herro has a team-high 27.3% usage rate. He is averaging a career-high 24.2 PPG on a career-best 63.2% true shooting rate (.477/.422/.872), which accounts for 2-point, 3-point, and free-throw shooting. That's 66 percentage points better than Herro's second-best true shooting rate of 56.6%. 

Four consecutive Raptors-Heat meetings have gone Over the total, including both this season. They split those games: Miami won the first 121-111 on a 220 total at home November 29 and Toronto won the latter 119-116 on a 221.5 total at home December 1. Lastly, five of their eight quarters played had 58+ points. 

Prediction: Miami 123, Toronto 110

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.