1 Underdog, 1 Player Prop For Best Bets In The NBA Thursday

Apparently, my sh*tty NFL gambling is bleeding into the NBA. I went 1-2 in the NBA Wednesday despite getting "closing line value" (CLV) for two of my bets. My first "best bet", the Pistons +5.5, blew a third-quarter lead to Indiana and I got hooked when Indiana beat Detroit 115-109. 

Then the Chicago Bulls went from +6.5 to +5.5 vs. the New Orleans Pelicans after Zion Williamson was ruled out. Well, NOLA whooped Chicago 123-111. I avoided an 0-3 sweep when the Golden State Warriors took care of business and demolished the Portland Trail Blazers 139-104, easily covering as -5.5 favorites. 

Nonetheless, since I got that overrated CLV in two games and the Pistons were covering the spread for three quarters, I'm convinced my process is sharp, and the results will go my way soon. We'll see if that's how it goes Thursday or if I'm headed toward a crappy NBA betting season. 

NBA Betting Card: Thursday, October 24th 

• Bet 1.02 units (u) on the Sacramento Kings moneyline (-102) vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves at DraftKings.
• Bet 1.05u on Denver Nuggets PG Jamal Murray UNDER 20.5 points (-105) vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder at DraftKings.

Timberwolves at Kings (-102), 10 p.m. ET

It was only one game, but first-year Timberwolves forward Julius Randle looked disinterested and unhappy in Minnesota's 110-103 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers Tuesday. Randle scored just 16 points on 5-of-10 shooting and didn't give T-Wolves All-Star Anthony Edwards the help he needed. 

Randle has to average 20+ points per game (PPG), or Minnesota's offense will nosedive. Former T-Wolves PF Karl-Anthony Towns seemed excited about being Edwards' sidekick last season, whereas Randle probably wishes he still played for the New York Knicks. It'll take time for Edwards and Randle to build continuity since they are both ball-stopping, iso-scorers. 

Sacramento Kings big Domantas Sabonis looks to pass with Minnesota Timberwolves C Rudy Gobert playing defense at Target Center. (David Berding/Getty Images)

Sacramento has a similar problem after acquiring SF DeMar DeRozan this offseason. DeRozan and Kings PG De'Aaron Fox both like to work out of isolation sets and operate in the mid-range. Yet, DeRozan has always been a good teammate, and the Kings essentially have two point guards, Fox and Domantas Sabonis, to get DeRozan touches. 

Also, Fox, DeRozan, and Sabonis lit up the Timberwolves in 2023-24. While playing for the Chicago Bulls last season, DeRozan averaged 30.0 PPG and 6.5 assists in two games vs. Minnesota. Fox put up 31.5 PPG with 9.0 assists in two games against the T-Wolves. Sabonis averaged 17.7 points,12.0 rebounds, and 7.7 assists in three meetings with Minnesota last season. 

Lastly, we are getting a good price on the Kings because the market doesn't think the Timberwolves will lose their first two games of the season. However, Sacramento has more continuity entering this season and Minnesota is replacing an All-Star and starter. 

Prediction: Kings 114, Timberwolves 109 

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Thunder at Nuggets, 10 p.m. ET 

Pinnacle Sportsbook, a market-making offshore bookmaker, has the Under for Murray’s point prop juiced to -124. Whenever there is a discrepancy between the major sportsbooks and Pinnacle, I side with the latter since Pinnacle is the sharper shop that accepts the biggest bets in the world. 

Murray scored fewer than 20 points in all four games vs. Oklahoma City last season. He averaged 14.8 points PPG on 42.9% shooting (25.0% from behind the arc). Also, Murray usually starts slowly. He scores 14.1 PPG on 40.8% shooting with a 103 offensive rating for his career in October. All three are his career lows for any month of the season. 

Denver Nuggets PG Jamal Murray posts up Oklahoma City Thunder SG Cason Wallace at Paycom Center. (Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images)

Furthermore, Murray is more of an iso-scorer than a catch-and-shoot player and OKC played some of the toughest perimeter defense in the NBA last season. The Thunder’s perimeter defense will be better this season after trading for an elite on-ball defender this offseason in SG Alex Caruso. 

Finally, since the Thunder are missing two bigs Thursday, starting C Isaiah Hartenstein and backup C Jaylin Williams, the Nuggets should get Nikola Jokic more touches. That should be the priority regardless because Jokic had a 77.4% true shooting rate (.707/.600/.909) against Oklahoma City last season. 

Best Bet: Jamal Murray UNDER 20.5 points (-105) 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.