This Is A Rare NFL Sunday Where The NBA Has Better Games To Gamble On

Normally, I wouldn't bother writing up an NBA betting piece on Football Sunday. That said, there are amazing NBA games Sunday to counterbalance the crappy NFL 4 p.m. ET window, which only has three games, highlighted by the New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals. Blehh. 

I don't know if it's dumb luck or the Association being smart for once. But, the NBA scheduled several possible playoff previews (Yes, I know it's still early), such as the Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers, and Golden State Warriors at Oklahoma City Thunder. Without further ado, let's get into action. 

NBA Betting Card For Sunday, November 10

• Milwaukee Bucks +4.5 (-110) vs. the Boston Celtics at FanDuel, risking 1.1 units (u).
• New York Knicks -3 (-108) vs. the Indiana Pacers at DraftKings, risking 1.08u.
• OVER 218 (-110) in the Miami Heat vs. Minnesota Timberwolves at DraftKings, risking 1.1u.
• Golden State Warriors +6 (-108) vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder at DraftKings, risking 1.1u.

Celtics at Bucks (+4.5), 3:30 p.m. ET 

Boston beat Milwaukee 119-108 in their first meeting this season, October 28, and the Celtics covered as -9 home favorites. However, their leading scorer was All-Star Jaylen Brown, who scored 30 points. Brown is questionable for Sunday and has missed the past four games. 

The Bucks were up at halftime, and Boston backup PG Payton Pritchard scored 28 points on 8-of-12 shooting from deep. Since this game is in Milwaukee, role players like Pritchard typically shoot worse on the road, and Brown might not play, I’ll excuse the Bucks' loss by 11 points to the Celtics last month. 

Milwaukee Bucks All-Star Giannis Antetokounmpo takes a layup vs. the Boston Celtics at Fiserv Forum. (Benny Sieu-Imagn Images)

Milwaukee covered its four prior meetings with Boston. Four of the Bucks' seven losses were on the road vs. the Celtics, Grizzlies, Cavaliers, and Knicks, all good teams. Boston is the reigning NBA champion. All-Star Ja Morant played for Memphis. Cleveland has the best net rating in the East. New York is the second betting favorite in the East to make the NBA Finals. 

Despite how badly the Bucks are playing, I still don't think they should be home underdogs. Giannis and Damian Lillard average 57.4 points per game (PPG). They need their supporting cast to step up, but that's doable. Milwaukee PF Bobby Portis and SG Pat Connaughton won't shoot like sh*t for the rest of the season. 

Finally, Giannis called out his teammates, and a reporter, after the Bucks lost by 22 points to the Knicks in The Garden Friday. I'm expecting his teammates to step up Sunday. I mean Giannis is scoring 30.1 PPG and grabbing 12.8 rebounds per game. He only needs 7-8 threes from his role players. 

Prediction: Bucks 115, Celtics 113 

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Knicks (-3) at Pacers, 5 p.m. ET 

This is my F*** it Bet of the day. The Knicks are my favorite team, and I'm still mad at the Pacers after they lost to the Charlotte Hornets when I bet Indy Friday. Plus, Indiana beat New York in the 2024 Eastern Conference Semifinals, winning by 21 points at The Garden in Game 7. But, the Knicks didn't have former All-Star PF Julius Randle, SF OG Anunoby, and C Mitchell Robinson. 

New York traded Randle to the Timberwolves for All-Star big Karl-Anthony Towns, who is balling this season. KAT is scoring a team-high 24.3 PPG on 65.3% true shooting, which accounts for 2-point, 3-point, and free-throw shooting, and grabbing a team-high 12.8 rebounds per game. 

New York Knicks C Karl-Anthony Towns operates out of the triple threat against Indiana Pacers C Myles Turner at Madison Square Garden. (Brad Penner-Imagn Images)

The Knicks got a little revenge earlier this season when they beat the Pacers 123-98 at home October 25. Four New York starters scored 20+ points in that game including OG, SF Josh Hart, wing Mikal Bridges, and All-Star PG Jalen Brunson. Ultimately, Indiana is 23rd in defensive rating and NYK is better at every position. 

Prediction: Knicks 116, Pacers 110

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OVER 218 in Heat at Timberwolves, 7 p.m. ET

The T-Wolves have been jacking up threes this season, especially All-Star Anthony Edwards. They are third in 3-point-attempt rate (3PAr) this year after ranking 17th last season. Edwards is hitting 5.6-of-11.6 threes per game (48.1%) while averaging 29.0 PPG. 

Furthermore, Timberwolves PF Julius Randle, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Naz Reid are shooting better than 44.7% from 3-point range. This increased 3PAr is why the T-Wolves have gone Over the total in six of their nine games this season by an average of +4.6 PPG. 

Because the Heat are +7.5 underdogs, have lost three straight games, and are missing Jimmy Butler, they will play with desperation. I.e. more threes and defensive intensity. Miami is fifth in 3-point percentage with seven guys shooting better than 40.0% from behind the arc. 

Yet, the Heat's defense is 22nd in 3-point shots allowed and 25th in defensive 3-point rate. Going back to "play with desperation", Miami is 10th in defensive turnover rate (TOV%). Minnesota is 26th in offensive TOV% and 26th in points off of turnovers allowed per game. 

Prediction: Timberwolves 116, Heat 109 

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Warriors (+6) at Thunder, 7 p.m. ET

Golden State got blasted in its last game, Friday, by Cleveland 136-117, and teams usually respond to getting smacked. The Thunder are the best team in the West and the Warriors are champions. Steph Curry vs. OKC All-Star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Draymond Green vs. OKC big Chet Holmgren are compelling matchups that could go either way. 

Golden State Warriors SG Stephen Curry drives to the basket on Oklahoma City Thunder C Chet Holmgren at Chase Center. (John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports)

Oklahoma City beat Golden State in all three meetings last season. But, they went to overtime in their last two meetings, and the gap from the Thunder to the Warriors hasn't gotten bigger. These teams have similar profiles: Good 3-point shooting and perimeter defenders. 

Either way, Golden State is still underrated in the market. Getting rid of Klay Thompson this offseason was addition by subtraction and Klay's replacement, SG Buddy Hield, is shooting his a** off this season. Hield is among five Warriors shooting at least 40.0% from 3-point land. 

Prediction: Thunder 114, Warriors 111

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.