Focusing On Two NBA Games Sunday: Best Bets For Heat-Bucks, Spurs-Pelicans

Sunday is a huge day of sports for me and my dog, "Lil Mama," who gets treats anytime my sports teams win. I'm a New York sports fan for everything. It starts with my school, the St. John's Red Storm, hosting the reigning back-to-back national champion UConn Huskies at noon ET at Madison Square Garden. 

Then, the New York Knicks look to finally beat a title contender when they visit the reigning NBA champion Boston Celtics. And the slumping New York Rangers face off with the Pittsburgh Penguins. I also have Alex Smalley to win the 2025 Mexico Open on the PGA TOUR at +3500 odds. Smalley is four strokes behind the leader entering the final round. 

That said, I'm only adding two NBA bets Sunday. Without further ado, they are. 

NBA Betting Card: February 23 

• Miami Heat +5.5 (-110) at Milwaukee Bucks via BetMGM, risking 1.1 units (u).
• New Orleans Pelicans -2 (-110) vs. San Antonio Spurs via FanDuel, risking 1.1u.

Heat (+5.5) at Bucks, 6 p.m. ET 

Maybe I'm crazy, but I like Miami's roster more than most people who talk hoops. In their previous meeting last month, Milwaukee beat Miami 125-96, but the Heat improved at the NBA trade deadline and the Bucks are worse. The fact that Miami is a +5 underdog Sunday after losing to Milwaukee as a +5.5 underdog last month validates my opinion. 

Jimmy Butler was suspended for the Heat-Bucks game Jan. 23, and he was ruining the vibes in Miami's locker room with his "trade me" bullsh*t. They granted Butler his wish by sending him to the Golden State Warriors and got forwards Andrew Wiggins and Kyle Anderson and defensive guard Davion Mitchell in return. 

Wiggins is one of the best 3-and-D guys in the NBA. When the Golden State Warriors won the title in 2022, Wiggins defended former Dallas Maverick Luka Dončić in the Western Conference Finals and Boston Celtics' Jayson Tatum in the NBA Finals. Mitchell is another 3-And-D guy, who starts next to Heat All-Star combo guard Tyler Herro for defensive purposes. Anderson is another rotation player who adds depth to Miami. 

Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro shoots a fadeaway over the Milwaukee Bucks at Kaseya Center in the 2024-25 NBA Cup. (Photo credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images)

The Bucks, on the other hand, sent SF Khris Middleton to the Washington Wizards for SF Kyle Kuzma at the trade deadline, which was moronic. Kuzma is a bad defender with a terrible shot selection who doesn't do anything on the court besides try to score. The simplest way to sum him up is that he is a "basketball cancer." Albeit Middleton is a shell of his former self. 

But, Middleton was still averaging 12.6 points per game off the bench on 50.7% shooting (40.0% on 3-pointers). Those weren't "empty stats" either. Middleton had a +7.7 on/off net rating, per CleaningTheGlass.com. Plus, Milwaukee's bench took another hit earlier this week when PF Bobby Portis Jr. was suspended 25 games for violating the NBA's anti-drug policy. 

Also, the Bucks are 26th in 3-point attempts allowed per game and the Heat have several good 3-point shooters, including Herro (38.1%), Wiggins (37.1%), and SG Duncan Robinson (37.8%). Miami shot just 12-of-51 from 3-point range vs. Milwaukee last month. That said, I'll be happy if the Heat gets that kind of 3-point volume again Sunday. 

With Wiggins and five-time All-Defensive big Bam Adebayo, Miami now has two elite defenders to throw at Milwaukee's two-time NBA MVP, Giannis Antetokounmpo. Finally, the Bucks are mainly bad at defending 3-pointers because they have a bottom-five collection of perimeter defenders and Giannis cannot be everywhere at once. 

Prediction: Miami 116, Milwaukee 113

• Wait until closer to tip-off before betting the Heat since we might get a better number by waiting because the public is betting the Bucks.

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Spurs at Pelicans (-2), 7 p.m. ET 

San Antonio was 21-25 (45.7%) in the games Victor Wembanyama played this season. In an 82-game season, that's 37 wins, and Wembanyama has a +12.2 on/off net rating, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). The Spurs are a 30-to-35-win team without Wemby, and perhaps a "tank team". 

Like Giannis in Milwaukee, Wemby is San Antonio's only good defender. He's also the best guy in the world to rim-protect against Pelicans' Zion Williamson, one of the most physical players in the NBA. Most of Zion's shots are in the paint and, simply put, the Spurs don't have anyone to stop him. 

New Orleans Pelicans PF Zion Williamson going up for a dunk against the San Antonio Spurs at Frost Bank Center. (Photo credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn Images)

Furthermore, New Orleans isn't as bad as its 13-43 record. The Pelicans were counting on SF Brandon Ingram and Williamson being All-Stars. Both have been plagued by injuries this season, and first-year combo guard Dejounte Murray is out for the season. Yet, NOLA still has Zion, combo guard, C.J. McCollum, who can fill it up, and 3-and-D guy, Trey Murphy III. 

Lastly, I hate the fit of Spurs PG Chris Paul and combo guard De'Aaron Fox. CP3 over-dribbles and isn't athletic enough anymore to consistently beat his defender. Fox is an inefficient iso-scorer. It'll take time for these guys to gel because they both need the ball to be productive. Paul should be coming off the bench and I wouldn't build my team around Fox's skill-set. 

Prediction: New Orleans 123, San Antonio 116

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.