Indiana Pacers Will Keep Up Their Winning Ways Vs. Houston Rockets Tuesday

Two middle-of-the-pack teams in their respective conferences play Tuesday when the Houston Rockets (37-24) visit the Indiana Pacers (34-25) at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse at 7 p.m. ET. Indiana is 4-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) since the NBA All-Star Game while Houston is 3-3 SU and ATS. 

This is the second game of a back-to-back (B2B) for the Rockets, who lost at the Oklahoma City Thunder 137-128 as +14 road underdogs Monday. But, Houston rested four starters, such as PG Fred VanVleet, C Alperen Şengün, and wings Dillon Brooks and Amen Thompson. Since it was the front end of a B2B, a few of these guys, if not all four, should play Tuesday. 

As -5.5 home favorites, Houston pounded Indiana 130-112 in their season's first meeting Nov. 20. However, the Rockets were 10-5 straight up (SU) and won seven of their past nine entering that game. The Pacers, on the other hand, got off to a slow start. They were 6-8 SU and lost four of their previous six before playing Houston. 

Indiana Pacers C Myles Turner blocks Houston Rockets C Alperen Sengun at Toyota Center. (Photo credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images)

Houston Rockets at Indiana Pacers Odds (FanDuel) 

• Moneyline: Houston (+126) | Indiana (-148)
• ATS: Rockets +3 (-110) | PACERS -3 (-110)
• Total — 231.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)

Indy didn't have starting SG Andrew Nembhard and SF Aaron Nesmith against Houston earlier this season. Those aren't household names but key contributors for the Pacers. According to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), Nesmith has a +12.5 on/off net rating and Nembhard has a +8.7 on/off net rating. 

More importantly, Indiana All-Star PG Tyrese Haliburton was horrible at the beginning of the season but has turned it around. Haliburton had a 51.0% effective field goal rate (eFG%), which factors in 2- and 3-point shooting, and a +1 net rating in October and November. Since he has a 61.2% eFG% and +17 net rating. 

Haliburton's turnaround coincides with Indiana playing like one of the best teams in the NBA since the start of 2025. The Pacers are 18-7 SU over that span, fifth in net rating (+6.6) in non-garbage time, and ninth in spread differential (+2.5), per CTG. Whereas the Rockets have a +1.2 adjusted net rating and -1.8 spread differential since Jan. 1. 

Furthermore, TeamRankings.com gives NBA teams a 2.5-point boost for home-court advantage and Indiana is 18-10 SU with a +3.3 scoring margin at home this season. Hence, the Pacers should be at least -4.5 favorites over the Rockets on Tuesday. 

Also, Indiana is an elite 3-point shooting team, especially at home. The Pacers make 1.6 more 3-pointers per game than their opponents. Since the NBA All-Star Game, they have made nearly six more 3-pointers than their foes in home and road games. Indy has the fourth-best rate of "wide-open" 3-point attempts per game, so they get great looks. 

Finally, the Rockets are 27th in eFG% and score by hustling. They are third in fastbreak points per game (PPG) and lead the NBA in second-chance PPG. Yet, instead of going for offensive rebounds, the Pacers prevent their opponents from getting out in transition. Indy's defensive rebounding is a weakness, but it's 15th in second-chance PPG allowed. 

Prediction: Indiana 122, Houston 114

• I'd wait until closer to tip-off before betting Indiana because once Houston's starters are officially ruled available we could get better odds for the Pacers. Plus, always shop for the best price for a bet you're making, and FanDuel has the best odds for Indy. For the record, I'm risking 1.1 units on the Pacers -3 (-110) and I'd bet them up to -5.

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