Am I A Fool For Gambling On Two Regular-Season NBA Games April 1?
With the postseason tipping off in less than three weeks, betting the NBA is becoming more reasonable. There is a clearer picture of who is and who isn't motivated, and teams are jockeying for playoff positions. Perhaps it isn't a coincidence that I hit both bets Monday in the NBA since I bet on games featuring teams that have something for.
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That said, one of the teams I'm wagering on Tuesday should be in "tank" mode. The other is "due for a loss" because it is playing a team in a revenge spot and missing two key contributors. Nonetheless, at least read my logic for betting these sides, and you can decide whether to fade or follow my picks for Tuesday.
NBA Betting Card: April 1
- Toronto Raptors +5 (-110) at Chicago Bulls via FanDuel, risking 1.1 units (u).
- Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5 (-110) at Denver Nuggets via BetMGM, risking 1.1u.
Raptors (+5) at Bulls
If the Raptors (28-47) are tanking, they are doing a lousy job. Toronto's four-game winning streak is on the line when it visits on Tuesday the Bulls (33-42), a team that refuses to tank and is okay with just making the postseason play-in tournament. Granted, the Raptors beat all "tanking teams" over that four-game span, but still, they are trying.
The Bulls are 5.0 games ahead of them for the 10th and final play-in seed out East entering April. Chicago beat Toronto in their first three meetings this season, covering the spread in two and pushing on the other. The Bulls have lost two straight to the Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder after a four-game winning streak from March 20-27.
Toronto is 7-6 straight up (SU) and 10-3 against the spread (ATS), and has a +5.5 spread differential as road underdogs vs. teams with a losing record. Chicago is 5-7 SU and ATS as a home favorite this season. This is the second of a back-to-back for the Bulls. They are 3-8 SU and ATS in those spots with a -7.9 ATS margin.
Also, going back to them not tanking, the Raptors have the best defensive efficiency in the NBA since the All-Star break and get out in transition at the highest frequency, per CleaningTheGlass.com. They have the third-best offensive rebounding rate in the second half of the season as well. Essentially, Toronto is a good bet because of its recent efforts, the odds, and situational trends.
Prediction: Toronto 117, Chicago 115
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Timberwolves (+3) at Nuggets
Minnesota (43-32) will be shorthanded Tuesday with SG Donte DiVincenzo and big Naz Reid for their roles in a skirmish with the Detroit Pistons on Sunday. However, Denver (47-28) may also be without starting PG Jamal Murray and PF Aaron Gordon, who are both "questionable" for Tuesday.
The T-Wolves are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS vs. the Nuggets in their first three meetings this season. So, there might be some "gambler's fallacy" in the market for this game, with bettors thinking "Denver is too good to get swept by Minnesota in the season series". But this is just a bad matchup for the Nuggets.
The Timberwolves won all "four factors" in their upset win over Denver in last year's Western Conference Semifinals. The T-Wolves hit nearly seven more 3-pointers than the Nuggets (16.3-9.7) and more than two rebounds (43.7-41.3) this season. Minnesota plays a modern style of basketball, shooting 39.8 threes per game compared to Denver's NBA-low 31.9 3-ball attempts per game.
Finally, Timberwolves All-Star Anthony Edwards has dominated the Nuggets since the 2024 NBA Playoffs. Edwards averaged 27.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 5.7 assists per game in the 2024 Western Conference Semifinals. He is scoring 30.7 points per game on 51.5% shooting (44.1% from behind the arc) vs. Denver this season.
Prediction: Minnesota 118, Denver 112
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