Add These Three NBA 'Locks' To Your College Football Betting Portfolio Saturday

At this point, I'd recommend fading my NBA picks since I'm cursed. For what it's worth, I had "closing line value" (CLV) for two of my bets, with no line movement on the third, in the 2024 Emirates NBA Cup Black Friday, but went 1-2. My only winning pick was a rocking-chair cover when the Detroit Pistons boat-raced the Indiana Pacers 130-106 as +5.5 road underdogs.  

Unfortunately, both Los Angeles basketball teams screwed me. The Minnesota Timberwolves failed to cover as -6 home favorites in a 96-95 win over the LA Clippers Friday. Then the LA Lakers lost 101-93 to the Oklahoma City Thunder as +3 home underdogs. Yet, the CLV I keep getting on my NBA bets convinces me that my luck will turn around. 

With that in mind, let's make some money on the hardwood Saturday. 

NBA Betting Card: November 30 

• Detroit Pistons moneyline (-126) vs. Philadelphia 76ers via FanDuel, risking 1.26 units (u).
• Golden State Warriors +2.5 (-106) vs. Phoenix Suns via FanDuel, risking 1.06u.
• Utah Jazz PF John Collins OVER 17.5 Points (+100) vs. Dallas Mavericks via FanDuel, risking 0.5u.

76ers at Pistons (-126), 7 p.m. ET

This is the second 76ers-Pistons meeting this season. As +4 road underdogs, Detroit (9-12) won the first 105-95 October 30 in Philadelphia (3-14). The Pistons smashed the Pacers 130-106 Friday in PG Cade Cunningham’s return from a three-game injury absence. Cunningham had game-highs in points (24) and assists (11) against Indy Friday. 

The 76ers will be without 2022-23 NBA MVP Joel Embiid again Saturday, but might have All-Star Paul George, who is questionable for this game. Regardless, they are only 1-7 when PG plays this season. Philadelphia's lone win with George in the lineup was by two points against a bad Charlotte Hornets team. 

Detroit Pistons PG Cade Cunningham drives past the Philadelphia 76ers at Wells Fargo Center. (Bill Streicher-Imagn Images)

Furthermore, PG hasn’t gotten going yet in Philly because of his. George has one 20-point game and averages 14.9 points per game (PPG) on 38.3% shooting. Currently, the best Sixers are All-Star combo guard Tyrese Maxey and rookie SG Jared McCain. 

However, Cunningham and SG Jaden Ivey cancel out Philly’s backcourt. Ivey is developing into an above-average starter in his third NBA season. He is scoring a career-high 18.4 PPG on a career-best 51.6% effective field goal shooting, which accounts for 2- and 3-point shooting. 

Detroit isn't a bigger favorite here because the Pistons are playing the second of a back-to-back and Philly has a much higher power rating when at full strength. That said, the Pistons have a -1.6 net rating in non-garbage time and the Sixers have a -8.5 adjusted net rating, per CTG. I'm just assuming that I'm higher on Detroit than the market.  

Prediction: Detroit 112, Philadelphia 107 

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Warriors (+2.5) at Suns, 9 p.m. ET

Golden State (12-6) visits Phoenix (10-8) for their season's first meeting. The Suns were 3-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) vs. the Warriors last season. Golden State is one of the surprise teams through the first six weeks of the season because of its defense. 

The Dubs were 15th in defensive rating in 2023-24 and are fourth this season. They lead the NBA in contested shots per game, are second in shot quality allowed on defense, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), and third in pass deflections. 

Golden State trading SG Klay Thompson to the Dallas Mavericks this offseason has been addition by subtraction. Klay’s minutes have been replaced with better on-ball defenders and the Warriors still have elite 3-point shooting. 

Phoenix is jacking up more 3-pointers under first-year head coach Mike Budenholzer, but Golden State is a better 3-point shooting team. Four Warriors are shooting better than 40.0% from behind the arc, such as Steph Curry (44.4%), SG Buddy Hield (41.1%), SF Andrew Wiggins (41.0%), and PF Draymond Green (40.3%).

They make 3.5 more 3-pointers per game than their opponents, and the Suns have a +1.4 differential in made 3-pointers per game. Phoenix is 29th in offensive shot quality because it settles for too many inefficient mid-range jumpers, per CTG, and ranks 21st in defensive rating. 

Finally, the Suns have less continuity due to injuries to All-Stars Kevin Durant and SG Bradley Beal, who have both missed seven games. According to CTG, Phoenix’s projected starting 5 Saturday has a -13.5 net rating in non-garbage time, which grades in the 12th percentile of 5-man lineups in the NBA. 

Prediction: Golden State 117, Phoenix 113 

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Player Prop in Jazz at Mavericks, 9:30 p.m. ET

My favorite look in this game is Jazz PF John Collins OVER 17.5 points. The Over for his point prop is juiced everywhere except FanDuel so shop there first. Either way, Collins has scored 18+ points in six of his eight games as a starter. He shoots 58.9% from the field as a starter (50.0% as a backup) and has a 127 offensive rating (109 offensive rating as a backup). 

Utah Jazz PF John Collins shoots a 3-pointer vs. the Dallas Mavericks at Delta Center. (Rob Gray-Imagn Images)

He scored 28 points vs. Dallas as a starter at home November 14 and had 16 points in 19:10 off the bench on the road last month. Collins scored 21 points in one game vs. the Mavs last season, but 10 and 15 in his other two. I'm disregarding those two underwhelming performances because both games were blowouts and Collins played for less than 24 minutes in each. 

Best Bet: Utah Jazz PF John Collins OVER 17.5 points (+100) via FanDuel

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.